2009 Regular Season Preview: New York Jets

by Mike Trovato

September was never my favorite time of the year growing up, as it always meant going back to school, the end of summer and along with it, the warm weather. Without question, sports have played a huge part in my life, but especially around this time of year.

With the MLB playoffs right around the corner, there's always been the hype surrounding October baseball. As a Mets fan, of course, September has more often than not meant one thing- football season. Don't get me wrong, I love baseball, and when the Mets are contending, this month becomes that much more exciting. Nonetheless, Sunday on kickoff weekend is one of my favorite Sundays- if not my most favorite- of the year.

It still hasn't quite sunk in yet, and it probably won't until a full day of games on Sunday, but either way it's official: The 2009 NFL season is underway.

The past year in football has been full of changes. Michael Vick is back in the league; Plaxico Burress, Adam "Pacman" Jones and Donte Stallworth are out of it. Tedy Bruschi retired again, this time for good. Brett Favre retired again, but not for good. Seven teams have new starting quarterbacks. Eleven NFL teams are entering the 2009 season under the direction of a different coach than they were in 2008.

The latter two statements apply to the New York Jets, who ended the Eric Mangini era on a sour note, and have been one of the most active teams this offseason. Former Ravens Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan has been brought in to fill Mangini's shoes. Ryan's success with Baltimore's defense has Jets fans salivating over visions of a nasty Gang Green defense that will mercilessly devour opposing offenses. I am one of those fans.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/photos
Along with Ryan from Baltimore comes linebacker Bart Scott (left- #57), a one-time Pro Bowl selection, and safety Jim Leonhard. Scott has a current string of 4 consecutive seasons with at least 145 tackles. After spending three seasons in Buffalo, Leonhard flourished last year in Baltimore, having the opportunity to start 13 regular season games. The safety from Wisconsin recorded a career-high 123 tackles, also contributing on special teams with 395 return yards in 31 total attempts. Leonhard is listed as the Jets punt returner, but defensively, both he and Scott bring an understanding of the system that will help Gang Green make the transition to Ryan's schemes.

On offense, Mark Sanchez has performed well since being named New York's starting quarterback before the exhibition game against the Giants. Sanchez completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 347 yards, 3 touchdowns and one pick for a passer rating of 111.0 this the preseason. The main concern has been, and continues to be the inexperience of the wide receiving corps. Aside from Jerricho Cotchery's 260 career receptions and 13 touchdowns, the rest of the Jets wideouts have combined for just 92 career catches and 5 scores total. Only 6 teams are less experienced at the Wide Receiver position in terms of receptions:

• Oakland Raiders (310 rec, 37 rec TD)
• Tennessee Titans (272 rec, 22 rec TD)
• Miami Dolphins (207 rec, 9 rec TD)
• Chicago Bears (152 rec, 9 rec TD)
• New York Giants (151 rec, 5 rec TD)
• St. Louis Rams (114 rec, 6 rec TD)

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/photos

Sanchez and the Jets receiving corps will have some help from second year tight end Dustin Keller. The Purdue alum is looking to build upon his 48 catches and 3 scores from his rookie campaign. Along with Keller, Leon Washington (right) should provide Sanchez with an explosive check down option out of the backfield. Washington is emerging as one of the most versatile and dangerous complimentary backs in the league. Leon had 275 touches between offense and special teams in 2008, and the Jets will look to put the ball in his hands even more this season, easing the load on Thomas Jones, who turned 31 last month.

We know the facts and crunched some numbers, but what does it all mean? How will the Jets stack up in the Rex Ryan regime, year one? Let's take a look at the schedule:

Week 1- September 13th, 2009
New York Jets @ Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX







Houston has never had a winning season, but after back-to-back 8-8 years, some are picking the Texans as the sleeper team of 2009. With the emergence of running back Steve Slaton, the Texans offense now has elite talent at the three top offensive positions, along with WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels.
Houston's success will hinge upon the health of QB Matt Schaub, who has been accurate when healthy (66.2% completions in 2 seasons with Texans), but has missed 5 games in each of the last two years. Schaub has a sprained ankle, but should start against the Jets.
The Texans have been tough to beat in Reliant Stadium, where they were 6-2 at home in 2007 and 2008. However, half of those home wins came against the Lions, Bengals and Jaguars. The Jets finished just 4-4 on the road last season, but all four losses came on the west coast. The Jets pass defense was suspect last year despite a solid run defense. Houston was in the bottom half of the league defending the pass, and the bottom third against the run in '08.
Key Matchup: CB Sheppard/Lowery vs. WR Walter/Davis
The opposite side of the field features Darrelle Revis against Andre Johnson, Pro Bowler against Pro Bowler. With the focus on containing Andre Johnson, will Dwight Lowery/Lito Sheppard be able to hold down the coverage on the other side? Sheppard has had a horrendous preseason, and Lowery hasn't exactly been solid either. Walter should be able to play despite a hamstring injury, while Andre Davis will be ready to fill in if necessary.
Key Matchup: Texans LB/D-line vs. Jets O-line
The name of the game for the Jets is simple- protect the rookie QB. Jerricho Cotchery has a few inches on CB Dunta Robinson, so it will be up to the line to give Mark Sanchez time to throw to him. If the Jets can establish the pass early, that should allow them to exploit Houston's run defense as the game rolls on.
Prediction: Tough call here, but there's something about Sanchez that makes me think he's the real deal. That's not to say he won't have his rough spots (try Week 2), but the offensive line is strong, and I do think that Sanchez will make a solid debut against a less than great Texans defense. It'll be up to the Jets D to hold up their end of the bargain. As they did in the preseason, I think they'll bend by allowing 3 field goals, but not break.
Final- Jets 27, Houston 23

• Week 2- 9/20 vs. Patriots- L
• Week 3- 9/27 vs. Titans- W
  
• Week 4- 10/4 @ Saints- L
• Week 5- 10/12 @ Dolphins- W
• Week 6- 10/18 vs. Bills- W
• Week 7- 10/25 @ Oakland- W
• Week 8- 11/1 vs. Dolphins- W
• Week 9- Bye
  
• Week 10- 11/15 vs. Jaguars- W
• Week 11- 11/22 @ Patriots- L
• Week 12- 11/29 vs. Panthers- L
• Week 13- 12/3 @ Bills (in Toronto)- W
• Week 14- 12/13 @ Buccaneers- W
• Week 15- 12/20 vs. Falcons- L
• Week 16- 12/27 @ Colts- L
• Week 17- 1/3 vs. Bengals- W

So I realize that based on this, I have the Jets going 10-6, which I honestly would not have predicted off the top of my head. Frankly, there are at least four games that I consider swing games- they could go one way or another, and I was just as close to putting Gang Green at 7-9 or 6-10. I that I have the Jets winning 5 straight games at one point, which was inadvertent and seems like a tall task. But in breaking it down week by week, taking into account the projected offensive and defensive matchups, I like the trouble Leon Washington is going to cause for opposing defenses. Paired with Sanchez' uncanny poise, I'm going to stick to what I have here.

Yes, a lot can change over the course of the schedule, and one injury can change the course of the rest of the season. I'll still go week by week throughout the season and give my take on the matchups as they come, but at this point, 10-6 it is. I don't think that'll be enough to make the playoffs, but 10-6 would be, if nothing else, a step in the right direction. Let's hope it holds up in reality.


Agree? Disagree? I want to hear what you think, your points and predictions. Leave me some comments!

Catching up

by Mike Trovato

It's been a busy couple of weeks, hence the lack of new posts recently, so I thought I'd catch up and weighing in on a few things. I'll get to the Jets season some time this week, but for how, here's a taste of the Jets, plus some Mets flavor, and a bit of random ranting...


J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS

For those of you that picked the Jets over Giants in the last poll, good call. My predictions were a bit off; the closest thing I picked was the score, and Leon Washington had about 50 more all-purpose yards than I expected. I played it conservative with Mark Sanchez, but in his first action as the official New York Jets starting quarterback, he was even more impressive than I had anticipated.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/2009/08/26/2009-08-26_jets_make_right_call.html
Sanchez will undoubtedly have his share of rookie road bumps, but from what I've seen and heard, the USC product seems to be as good as advertised. His footwork has gotten high praise, as have his mental awareness and football smarts.

As one WFAN host pointed out, Sanchez spoke after the game about his touchdown pass to Chansi Stuckey, a play that added 6 to the scoreboard but ended with number 6 on the ground, having hung in long enough to release the throw before being drilled. The play itself was a positive, but more impressive were the QB's post game comments. Sanchez explained his thought process as he hit the ground, having the awareness to determine his plan of action based on the crowd's reaction. Despite not being able to see the play unfold, Mark had the presence of mind to know that a loud roar would mean his pass had been intercepted, and that he would need to get to his feet to make a defensive play.

I know it's early, but I'm buying whatever Sanchez is selling. I mean what's not to like? The kid is gutsy and smart, and on top of his physical skill set, he appears to be ahead of the curve when it comes to maturity, regardless of his lack of experience. The fact that he doesn't need to learn these small nuances will help accelerate his development, and hopefully pay immediate dividends in year one of the Sanchez/Rex Ryan era.
http://www.nptelegraph.com/articles/2009/09/06/sports/local_sports/10001738.txt
In other Gang Green headlines, running back Danny Woodhead was among four Jets released Saturday. Woodhead became a significant part of the preseason buzz with his impressive rushing performance against the Eagles, piling up 158 yards on 18 carries.

The former Division II standout at Chadron State set the all-time rushing NCAA record, and is second to Brian Westbrook in NCAA history in all-purpose yards. It would have been great to see Woodhead stick in New York, but with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and 2009 third round draft pick Shonn Greene, there just wasn't enough room on the roster for Woodhead.

Only San Francisco's Glen Coffee and New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis had more rushing yards this preseason, and I can't imagine he'll be out of work for very long. He'll catch on somewhere else, maybe in a place like Cleveland. Hell, with half of the Browns roster space being occupied by ex-Jets, why not one more? Frankly, I hope he doesn't become a Brown. I'd much rather see him add depth to a team like Cincinnati, Kansas City, Houston, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Green Bay, Chicago... pretty much anywhere but Eric Mangini's Browns.


MEET THE METS

The amount of injuries the New York Mets have had this season is utterly absurd, and I've documented this in several posts (feel free to take a glance back at those links on the right side over there and revisit all the fun trips to the DL). Yes it's September, the last month of the season, but who exactly are these guys on the pitching staff?

With Johan Santana recovering from elbow surgery and the rest of the rotation injured as well, Mike Pelfrey, the back end of the 2008 rotation, is now the Mets number 1 starter. After that? Try Redding, Figueroa, Parnell and Misch.

Tim Redding was signed this past offseason as the potential fifth starter, but lost that spot to Livan Hernandez in spring training. Nelson Figueroa has bounced around, having played for four major league teams, as well as professionally in Japan and Mexico. Bobby Parnell was an emerging young arm in the bullpen, having spent time as the 7th inning man as well as filling in for J.J. Putz as Francisco Rodriguez' setup man. Before September began, Pat Misch entered September tied for most starts without a win, ever. Clearly, this group was not the blueprint for success when the Mets were mapping out this season's starting rotation.

Bobby Parnell has had the most trouble, but has shown potential here and there. He has had two scoreless outings in five starts since making the switch from the bullpen. Parnell held the Giants scoreless, striking out 7 with 0 walks and 3 hits in his first start back on August 14th. His next three starts were brutal (12.2 innings, 22 earned runs, 7 BB, 6 K), but he matched his 7 strikeout performance over 7 innings in his last start, another scoreless outing. As for the rest of the crew, the Mets new starters have performed very well over their last few starts, respectively.

In three starts since joining the rotation, Tim Redding has lowered his ERA by 0.83 runs. In his first start since July, he gave up just one hit to the Phillies over 5 strong innings on August 22nd; he subsequently pitched 6 2/3 innings in each of his next two outings, giving up 5 runs while striking out 11 and walking just 3.

Nelson Figueroa struck out a career-high 10 batters over 7 two starts ago in a 4-1 win over Chicago, and followed with 8 more K's against the Cubs back at Citi Field, though he took the loss.
http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2009/09/04/alg_misch2.jpg
Pat Misch has made 2 outstanding starts, lasting 7 innings in each and allowing 3 earned runs total. Misch recorded his first career victory on September 3rd, avoiding breaking the record for most winless starts to begin a career.

If you take the starts made by Redding, Figueroa and Misch since being forced to leave the bullpen, their numbers are actually pretty impressive: 8 starts, 50.1 IP, 15 ER, 40 K, 14 BB. Let's put this into a bit of a perspective...

• Chris Carpenter (15-3, 2.28 ERA) is a top candidate for this year's NL Cy Young Award.
  
• Tim Lincecum is the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
• C. C. Sabathia won the AL Cy Young in 2007, and leads the American League in wins, along with Justin Verlander.
  

Last 8 starts:
Chris Carpenter: 7-0, 58 IP, 15 ER, 43 K, 12 BB
C.C. Sabathia: 6-1, 57 IP, 19 ER, 64 K, 9 BB
Tim Lincecum: 3-2, 60.2 IP, 14 ER, 65 K, 18 BB
Justin Verlander: 5-2, 58.2 IP, 24 ER, 63 K, 11 BB
Redding/Figueroa/Misch: 3-2, 50.1 IP, 15 ER, 40 K, 14 BB

The most stark contrast lies in the strikeout totals, but otherwise, the Mets trio has less walks and as many wins as Lincecum over his last 8 starts, and less earned runs than Sabathia and Verlander over their previous 8, respectively. While their innings are less, keep in mind that both Redding and Figueroa were limited in the first of their starts as they were making the transition back to starting from the bullpen.

Obviously, there is no real comparison between the Mets current starters and the league's elite. Given given the futility of the remainder of the season, maybe it's the lower expectations that has lifted some pressure from these men. They likely won't figure into the Mets 2010 blueprints- at least not in the same capacity- it's not entirely out of the question, especially if the Mets choose not to shell out big bucks for some pitching. While it's definitely not the best case, or what any Mets fan really wants, the bottom line is that Redding, Figueroa and Misch have stepped up and filled in admirably under the circumstances.


RANDOM RANTING

Fact: Mike Pelfrey pitched 8 innings of 5-hit ball against the Cubs on Sunday. Despite a pitch count of just 105, Jerry Manuel lifted Pelfrey to give Francisco Rodriguez a chance to pick up a save, as they have been hard to come by. Pelfrey wanted to pitch the 9th, but Manuel wouldn't have it. In a postgame interview, Manuel asserted that he was confident that Big Pelf would have a solid finish to the season...

Rant: Really, Jerry? Are we forgetting that his last two starts? The ones in which he surrendered totals of 11 runs, 17 hits and 10 walks? I guess we are. Sure, this was a solid outing, and let's hope he keeps it up. But seriously, what about it makes you so confident that Pelf's inconsistency is going to vanish overnight? I hope you're right, but let's temper those expectations just a tad, at least until he puts two good starts together.

Fact: Carlos Beltran is expected to return to the Mets on Tuesday. Likewise, the Mets anticipate that John Maine will be activated to pitch this upcoming Sunday.

Rant: Great news. This team is gradually returning back to normalcy. Welcome back, fellas.

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/002q6tE1n4b5Y/520x.jpg
Fact: The New England Patriots traded Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for a first round draft pick in 2011.

Rant: After gift wrapping Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for Kansas City for one, yes, one draft pick... after the retirement of Rodney Harrison this offseason and then Tedy Bruschi this week... Somehow, 29 year-old Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle Richard Seymour managed to become expendable, and traded not even for a pick in 2010, but 2011!! The Patriots have the foresight of Nostradamus, and have their 2011 pick, possibly a current high school senior, already in the bank. Bill Belichick has sold his soul to Satan. There is no other explanation.

Fact: Shawne Merriman was arrested on charges for choking and restraining girlfriend Tila Tequila.

Rant: You stay classy, San Diego (Charger). With all the buzz about the image of the NFL, between Michael Vick's controversial return to the league, Donte Stallworth's DUI manslaughter, and Plaxico Burress' nightclub shenanegans, I'm sure Roger Goodell was hoping for just one more dumb incident like this. Maybe Merriman was mad that Tila didn't want to turn the lights out...