MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series (Part 2)

by Mike Trovato

Last but not least...

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

Atlanta Braves
Overview: Of all the managerial changes we will see this offseason, the most notable will be the replacement of Bobby Cox after 25 seasons in Atlanta. The changing of the guard has already been evident on the field, with Chipper Jones being the last remaining piece of the Braves dynasty of the 90's. Rookie Jason Heyward has been a sparkplug for a Braves offense that has been plagued by injuries all season long. No Braves position player appeared in more than 147 games, contributing to what at best an average offense throughout the season.

The pitching staff has carried Atlanta through the rough offensive patches, ranking seventh in fewest walks allowed (505), sixth in strikeouts (1,241), tied for sixth in opponents batting average (.246), 3rd overall in ERA (3.56), and best in the league in home runs allowed (126). The most dominant stretch of pitching began on April 30th, the day after the Braves had lost their 9th consecutive game. At that point, Atlanta was in last place with a record of 8-14, five games behind the first place Mets. That all changed on the 30th, as Braves began a run of .667 baseball, compiling a 44-22 record through the All-Star break.

Over those 66 games, Atlanta lost just eight games in May, and Braves pitching held its opponents to 3 runs or less in 41 of those contests. By the time of the mid-summer classic, they had propelled themselves into first place, four games up on New York in the standings. Although Cox's squad squandered a seven game lead in the final two months, they managed to cling to the wildcard spot on the season's final day.

Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Derrek Lee, IF Alex Gonzalez, OF Rick Ankiel

San Francisco Giants
Overview: All the talk about pitching in the National League has been about the Philadelphia Phillies, But led by the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, San Francisco's pitching staff posted a league-best 3.36 ERA, and was the only club to strike out over 1,300 batters (1,331). Over the final month of the season, the Giants pitching has been surreal. In the starting rotation, the combination of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner combined for a dazzling 141 innings, allowing just 97 hits and 30 walks while striking out 150 en route to a collective 1.66 ERA and 13-4 record. As for the bullpen, Giants relievers held opponents to a .164 batting average in September, striking out 60 while allowing just 49 batters to reach base.

With Pat Burrell leading a re-vamped Giants outfield, the revival of Aubrey Huff's career and the emergence of rookie catcher Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy's crew climbed its way out of fourth place in the NL West. The Giants bats woke up after the All-Star break, slugging the most home runs (80) in the National League, while the pitching staff got even more stingy. In the second half of the season, the Giants recorded a 3.20 team ERA and saved a Major League best 36 games behind closer Brian Wilson. Burrell was a force replacing Pablo Sandoval in the middle of the lineup, slamming 18 home runs and driving in 51, compiling a .872 OPS in the process.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: OF Pat Burrell, OF Jose Guillen, OF Cody Ross, RP Chris Ray

Prediction: Offensively, the Braves and Giants are actually pretty similar:

• Stolen Bases: Giants 55; Braves 63
• Strikeouts: Giants 1,099; Braves 1,140
  
• Slugging: Giants. .408; Braves .401
• Neither team had a player reach 90 RBI

Although both teams are similar over the course of the season in pitching stats as well, there are three factors that will separate Atlanta and San Francisco in this series- experience, rest and momentum.

When it comes to pitching, the Braves have experience on their side. Bobby Cox's Game 1 starter Derek Lowe has amassed a career 3.33 ERA in 82 2/3 postseason innings. Atlanta's Game 2 starter Tim Hudson has a 3.97 playoff ERA with 47 2/3 innings under his belt. Then there's Billy Wagner. As good as he has been for Atlanta this season, Wagner has a horrendous postseason line, an ERA over 10.00 in 11 1/3 innings pitched. Of the Giants three projected NLDS starters, none have ever thrown a pitch in baseball's second season.

In the bullpen, each team has five what I call "regular" relief pitchers-that is, relievers with over 50 appearances on the season. In this regard, San Francisco holds the clear edge. Of the Giants five regular relief men (Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Guillermo Mota), all besides Mota lowered their ERA in the second half of the season. Conversely, Takashi Saito was the only Braves reliever to log a lower ERA post-All-Star break than before it. Every other regular- Johnny Venters, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty and Wagner- saw their ERA rise as the season wound down. As far as rest is concerned, the Giants bullpen got it down the stretch, pitching just 75 1/3 innings over the final month. Braves relievers racked up 107 2/3 innings, which could leave Atlanta's 'pen out of steam.


The third factor, the one that bodes well for Bruce Bochy's young Giants staff is momentum. Momentum can disrupt a level playing field, and in this regard the Braves have none. Bobby Cox's club compiled an uninspiring 14-16 record over their last 30 games. The Giants on the other hand enjoyed an 18-8 September in which their pitching staff's ERA almost matched their opponents' average against them (1.78 ERA, 1.82 BAA). Being that this series should be a relatively low-scoring affair, that spells a major role for the bullpens, which will be the difference maker in favor of San Francisco.

Giants defeat Braves, 3 games to 1