Another Giant Giants Victory Ahead?

by Mike Trovato

Week 4- October 4th, 2009

New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

Arrowhead Stadium

The New York Giants are regarded by some as one of the elite teams in the NFL, and not for no reason. Since beating the previously undefeated New England Patirots in Super Bowl XLII, they, along with the Baltimore Ravens, have won an NFL best 15 games. Despite all the controversy and the media circus surrounding Plaxico Burress, the Giants keep on rolling. For a team that lost its top 2 wideouts in Burress (released) and Amani Toomer (free agency) this offseason, Big Blue hasn't missed a beat, starting the 2009 season 3-0.

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The main concern for head coach Tom Coughlin in the early going this season has been the numerous injuries to key players, namely safety Kenny Phillips (left), wide receivers Domenik Hixon and rookie Hakeem Nicks, and running back Danny Ware. Lucky for the G-men, they have benefited from a relatively forgiving schedule thus far, having faced the Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which are a combined 1-5. Regardless, the schedule isn't weighted, scores aren't given for degree of difficulty. The bottom line is a win is a win.

Besides, the Giants week 2 victory at NFC East foe Dallas was a testament to their balance of talent on both sides of the ball. Though the Cowboys did chew up 251 yards on the ground, Big Blue was +4 in turnovers, intercepting Tony Romo 3 times- once for a touchdown- and recovering a Felix Jones fumble to remain in the game. Eli Manning sealed the deal, executing the game winning 11-play, 56 yard drive in the final 3:34 as Lawrence Tynes hit a 37 yard field goal as time expired.

The questions asked after the close call in Dallas, the lingering concerns about the Giants run defense were all eased, at least for the time being with Big Blue's performance in last week's contest against Tampa Bay. That is, if it can even be called a contest. Tampa managed just 5 first downs, none through the first 38 minutes of the game. The Bucs couldn't muster 90 yards of offense, as the Giants rolled to a 24-0 win to improve to 3-0.

The Giants now head into Kansas City to face a winless Chiefs team in transition under first year coach Todd Haley. The highlight for the Chiefs came in Week 1, Brodie Croyle filling in under center, when they hung with the Ravens until late in the fourth quarter, tied 24-24 until Baltimore took the lead with 2:06 remaining. Since then, they have found a way to lose to Oakland and get smoked by the Eagles.

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With Matt Cassel (right) healthy and back under center, the Chiefs have struggled mightily and are 30th in the league with 264.3 yards per game. Defensively they're not much better, yielding 362.3 yards and 28.2 points per game to opposing offenses. Against the Raiders in week 2, the Chiefs outgained Oakland 409 to 166. JaMarcus Russell completed 29.2 percent of his passes (7 for 24), yet was somehow able to complete 4 of his last 7 attempts for 81 yards on a game-winning drive with 2:30 remaining.

The following week, the Chiefs had a chance, facing an Eagles team missing both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Instead, Kevin Kolb picked apart the Chiefs secondary, completing 24 of 34 passes (70.6 percent) for 327 yards and 2 TD. Cassel passed for 90 yards, and the Chiefs fell 34-14.

Key Matchup: QB Matt Cassel vs. Giants D-line

The Giants have the second best defense in the league, despite all the yardage they gave up to the Cowboys two weeks ago. Big Blue shut down a Buccaneers offense that had looked half decent before last week, and in turn ended Byron Leftwich's brief stint as the Bucs starter, at lesast temporarily. While Cassel is better than Leftwich, he will face a Giants defense that has forced 7 turnovers (5 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries) through the first three weeks. The G-men have only logged 3 sacks thus far, and DT Chris Canty is out again this weekend, but if Justin Tuck can play, it should give a boost to the Giants defense which had no problem disposing of the Bucs last week without him.

Over/Under: 34.5- Giants rushing attempts vs. Chiefs passing attempts
The Giants ran 49 times last week against Tampa Bay. 49 times. The Chiefs aren't good, but they're not that bad. Still, when one team's rushing attempts match an opponent's passing attempts, and that number isn't somewhere between roughly 20 and 30, that usually spells big win for the team running the ball. I'm taking the over for both the Giants rushing attempts and the Chiefs passing attempts.

Key Players: Brandon Jacobs, Eli Manning
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The big fella Jacobs averaged just 3.5 yards on 26 carries last week against the Bucs. With Ahmad Bradshaw probable with a foot injury, Jacobs has a good chance to boost his YPC average, particularly if the Giants find themselves in a "garbage time" 4th quarter situation. A defense can only withstand so much punishment from a bruising back like the 6'4," 265 pound Jacobs; don't be surprised if he adds in a touchdown or two for good measure.

As for the other side of the equation, for the running game to work most effectively, Eli Manning will need to be as effective as usual- at least for the first quarter or two. As long as he moves the ball enough to keep the defense honest, the Chiefs won't be able to stack 8 in the box, which will open everything up for Jacobs (and Bradshaw).

Prediction:

Normally I'd go more in depth, maybe go so far as to pick a wildcard player to watch for in this game. To be honest though, nothing about Mark Bradley or Bobby Wade is tempting enough to convince me to predict that either will be a player to watch, nor will this game will be all that close. Kevin Kolb passed for well over 300 yards; if Eli Manning doesn't, it'll be because he didn't have to. Eli Manning is so in sync with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and they'll establish that early on, but ultimately, I'd be surprised if they had the need to make more than a few receptions after halftime.

Yes, Matt Cassel is a competitor and does have talent enough to make something happen. I'll even give him a fourth quarter score with a failed 2-point conversion. Either way, as I mentioned earlier, I anticipate that Cassel will have more attempts passing than the Giants will have rushing- and that number could very well be upwards of 35. Who knows, maybe David Carr will get in the action for a second straight week.

Giants 31, Chiefs 19

When the Jets Come Marching In

by Mike Trovato

Week 4- October 4th, 2009
New York Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0)
Louisiana Superdome






When the 2009 football season began just a few weeks ago, very few outside of the organization envisioned the New York Jets heading into New Orleans undefeated. I'll admit, I was not one of the 3-0 believers. 2-1, sure, although not many even gave them that. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining, not in the slightest way. That being said, the Superdome is now the stage for the only contest between 3-0 teams this Sunday.

http://www.neworleanssaints.com/Home/Multimedia/Photo%20Galleries.aspx?year=2009&month=9

The Jets' 3-0 start is as pleasant a surprise as any Jets fan could have hoped for, but on the road, the Saints will be the Jets biggest challenge thus far this season. In a matchup pitting strength versus strength, New Orleans' #1 offense, led by QB Drew Brees, will go against a vicious Jets defense that ranks #2 in points allowed, #3 in total yards, and top 10 against both the run and the pass.

Drew Brees (right), after posting astronomical QB ratings en route to 669 yards and 9 touchdown passes in weeks 1 and 2, came back down to earth, being held scoreless in week 3. Brees had connected with 8 and9 different receivers against the Lions and Eagles, respectively. Against the Bills, he hit just four different targets. But let's get one thing straight, the Bills did not shut down Drew Brees, the Saints success running the ball did, as all three of the Saints TD's came on the ground.

Pierre Thomas accounted for two of those scores returning from a knee injury to run for 126 yards on just 14 carries, helping the Saints pound the Bills to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry. With Mike Bell banged up and Thomas looking healthy, the Jets should see a heavy dose of both Thomas and Reggie Bush. Bush's 4.9 yards per carry last week was his highest average since he ran for 5 YPC against the Bears in week 15 last season.

As for the Jets, their defense has stacked up well against both the pass and the run, yielding 173.3 YPG (6th) through the air and 82.7 YPG (9th) on the ground. The Saints actually have allowed less rushing yards than the Jets, but that's likely a function of the Saints' opponents trying to catch up.

Key Matchup: WR Devery Henderson vs. CB Dwight Lowery
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With Lito Sheppard (quad) and Donald Strickland (ankle) both out nursing injuries, Dwight Lowery will line up opposite Darrelle Revis in the Jets secondary. Revis will be shadowing Brees' top pass catcher (14 rec, 3 TD), my fellow Hofstra alum Marques Colston, shifting some focus to Devery Henderson.

Henderson (above left) is 3rd on the Saints in receptions (11), but as their deep threat is first in yardage (214). His numbers have declined steadily over the first three games, accumulating nearly half of those receptions and yards and his only touchdown against the Lions (5 rec 103 yds, TD) in the season opener. Still, with his blazing speed, Henderson is always a threat, and could break out against Lowery.

Key Statistic: Time of Possession
Through the first three games this season, the Jets and Saints have had possession of the ball virtually exactly the same amount of time; Gang Green edges out New Orleans by 1 second per game, 33:31 to 33:30. However, the Saints have trailed for a total of 0 seconds this season. That's right. The New Orleans Saints have been tied or ahead every second of this 2009 season. They have yet to trail. That being said, if the Jets can jump out to an early lead like they did last week against the Titans, time of possession will be huge. Despite their elite D, the Jets can't sit back and throw it into cruise control with a lead against the multi-faceted attack of the Saints offense.

Saints Wildcard: RB Reggie Bush
Throughout his career, Reggie Bush has been significantly better at home and in one-sided games, specifically when it comes to finding the end zone. In 20 home games, Bush has scored 18 touchdowns (9 rushing, 6 receiving, 3 punt returns), as opposed to just 7 scores in 21 games on the road. The Saints are 22-19 when Bush plays, and in wins, the former Trojan has twice as many offensive touchdowns (14) than he does in losses (7). Though he has never faced the Jets, Bush did face a Rex Ryan defense back in 2006, and did not fare well, accumulating a mere 21 yards on 9 total touches. This is a home game for New Orleans, so the Jets need to be on high Reggie alert.

Jets Wildcard/Fantasy Play of the Week: TE Dustin Keller
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/photos
I fully expect the Saints to have their eyes on the likes of Jerricho Cotchery and Leon Washington; honestly, that's not much of a stretch. With time of possession being key, I'm looking for Dustin Keller to play a big role in helping the Jets move the chains and extend drives. The Saints gave up 8 receptions and 104 yards to Eagles tight end Brent Celek in week 2; I expect Keller to put up similar numbers. Don't expect regular fantasy predictions here, but this week seems like a solid green light for Keller's fantasy football owners.

Predictions:
It seems tough calls are the trend on a week-to-week basis, though I suppose that's to be expected in the NFL. Drew Brees holds up well under pressure, and has enough weapons to spread the ball around, and more importantly, spread out the Jets defense, which showed some holes for the first time all season in the second quarter last week against Tennessee. My original preseason prediction was that the Saints would win this game, but another Jet victory would not be the least bit shocking. Brees was knocked around by Rex Ryan's defense in 2006, being picked off 3 times despite 3 TD and 383 yards.

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/photos

The Jets need to come out and knock the Saints backwards in the first two possessions and control the clock for 60 percent (36 minutes) of the game. They are capable of doing so, but their best bet is not to get involved in a shootout. I don't think this will be the case, and as we saw against the Titans, the Jets defense will buckle down and keep them in the game. Pierre Thomas won't find anywhere close to the rushing room he saw against Buffalo, and I believe a trip or two into Bart Scott over the middle will make Reggie Bush think twice, meaning Drew Brees will have to carry the load. Of course he's capable of doing so, but the Jets will make him work for his 300 passing yards.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense has improved, but having put up its numbers against the Lions, Eagles and Bills, it doesn't exactly scare me, and I'm sure it won't scare Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones and the Jets. I anticipate Jones scoring one of at least two Gang Green rushing touchdowns, and Sanchez throwing for another two. Regardless of my pick, both teams will have their hands full, and we'll worry about the lingering effects of this matchup for next week; this game has the potential to be a classic down to the wire. I haven't switched a pick yet from my preseason writeup, but the loss I had penciled in for this week was before we all witnessed the beastliness of this Gang Green D. Jets fans, this is my first flip-flop, so enjoy.
Jets 34, Saints 28

NFL Week 3 in Review

by Mike Trovato

What a weekend it was in the NFL, filled with milestones, firsts, and a great bunch of highlights. Here's a glance at the notable events from Sunday's games:

It's About Time...
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After losing 19 straight games, the Detroit Lions finally won their first game since December 23, 2007, beating the Washington Redskins on Sunday.

Detroit took an early lead when #1 overall pick Matt Stafford hooked up with Bryant Johnson for a 21 yard score. The Motor City Kitties tacked on two more field goals before halftime, holding on to beat the Redskins, 19-14. Stafford looked solid in his first career win, throwing for 241 yards and the one TD with no interceptions.

The 'Skins, playing from behind for three quarters, managed just 65 rushing yards on 14 carries, 21 of which came on a scramble by QB Jason Campbell. Campbell completed 66% (27 for 41) of his passes for 340 yards and 2 TD's with one pick, but failed to lead what would have been the game winning drive. The Auburn alum began the drive with three straight completions, but followed with 3 incompletions in the final 30 seconds as Washington was stalled at the Lions' 36 as time expired.

Congrats to the Lions and to the city of Detriot, which in such a difficult economic time, desperately needed this victory. Without getting political, it's nice to see the residents of Detroit have something to celebrate. And celebrate they did, with the team, which returned to the field to give high-fives to the fans that remained in the stadium. Now the burden shifts to the Redskins- which for a team that spends so much on free agents, is in a state of disarray- and the St. Louis Rams, which now owns the NFL's longest current losing streak at 13 straight.


And the Legend Continues...
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As if Brett Favre hasn't proven enough on the football field. Favre won his first home game as a Minnesota Viking in dramatic fashion, leading yet another memorable game winning drive.
Down 24-20 with 1:29 left on the clock, Favre orchestrated a 10 play, 80 yard march, completing 6 of 7 passes, the last of which- his 47th attempt of the day- was a perfect strike to newly acquired Greg Lewis.

Favre eluded the 49er pass rush, scrambling around, firing a bullet that traveled 41 yards to Lewis, who made an incredible grab, reaching over the defender in the back of the end zone. Hit immediately after the throw, Favre leaped to his feet and pumped his Hall of Fame right arm as the Metrodome erupted. The play was reviewed and upheld with 0:02 on the clock, sealing victory for Minnesota, which improved to 3-0 in a matchup of two previously unbeaten teams.


Fly Eagle, Fly
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For a man who has accomplished so much in his NFL career, Donovan McNabb is one of the most under-appreciated athletes of his time. Over the last 9 seasons, McNabb has been nothing but a warrior for the Philadelphia Eagles, leading them to 7 winning seasons against just one losing campaign (2005, in which he missed 7 games) In 2002, McNabb played an entire game through a broken ankle, throwing for four touchdowns.

Yet, the QB out of Syracuse who was booed upon by Eagles fans on draft day, has continued to hear the boos through the years. Despite leading Philadelphia to four straight NFC Championship games from 2001 to 2004 and a Super Bowl appearance in '04, fans have called for a replacement on numerous occasions.

The Eagles finished 2008 winning 4 of their last 5 regular season games, sneaking into the playoffs and falling just one touchdown short of the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship, their 5th in 8 years under McNabb's leadership. It seemed the controversy would finally die down. Instead, Philadelphia signed Michael Vick to compete with Kevin Kolb for the role of "Who should replace Donovan next?"

Despite entering this season as the starter, another potential controversy looms on the horizon: In Week 3, starting his second straight game in place of the injured McNabb (broken rib), Kevin Kolb became the first QB to pass for 300 yards in his first 2 NFL starts.
Congrats to Kolb. Good luck to Donovan, who undeservedly may be hearing the calls for a changing of the guard, yet again.


Despite Hines' Moment, Bengals Steel Show
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Hines Ward became the 32nd player in NFL history to eclipse 10,000 career receiving yards. With his 14 yard reception in the 3rd quarter, his third of the game, Hines accumulated his 10,001st yard receiving. Ward joins Marvin Harrison, Steve Largent, Michael Irvin and Rod Smith as the only receivers to have accumulated all of their yardage with one team.

Despite Ward's historic accomplishment, the Bengals mounted a 4th quarter comeback, scoring 14 unanswered points in their final two drives: 6 plays for 85 yards, followed by a 71 yard drive that spanned 16 plays over 5 minutes, culminating in a game-winning touchdown pass to Andre Caldwell with 14 seconds remaining. The loss drops the reigning World Champs to 1-2 on the season and 3rd place in the AFC North.


Bucking the Bucs
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The New York Giants held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to just 89 yards of total offense, dropping the Buccs to 0-3 with a 24-0 victory on Sunday. Tampa Bay had 14 yards in the first half, and did not gain a first down until there were 5 minutes left in the third quarter.

Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs each outgained Tampa Bay- individually. Bradshaw slashed through Tampa's helpless D, averaging 7.4 yards per carry en route to 104 yards rushing. Jacobs scored the first and only necessary touchdown of the game, barreling his way to 95 yards on 26 carries.

Steve Smith and Mario Manningham again proved to be Eli Manning's favorite targets, combining for 11 receptions, 118 yards and a TD. Smith alone logged more receiving yards than the entire Tampa Bay receiving corps, edging out Stroughter, Winslow, Ward, Bryant, Stevens, Williams and Askew, 63 yards to 58.

The Bucs dismal performance prompted rookie head coach Raheem Morris to bench QB Byron Leftwich after the game. Josh Johnson will take over as the starter. As for the Giants, they continue to roll, as expected, taking a 3-0 record to face another winless team, the Kansas City Chiefs.


Sanchez sets 1st NFL Record; Jets, as Titans, beat Titans

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14470

It didn't come easy, but when all was said and done, Mark Sanchez took his place in the record books, becoming the first rookie QB in NFL history to win his first 3 NFL games. Still, the QB stayed humble, stating in a post-game press conference that, "We" won the game, and that he did not deserve all the credit.

The 24-17 Jets victory was truly a team effort. Sanchez started well out of the gates and the Jets jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but the rookie experienced his first real adversity before halftime. Following an incomplete pass to start the 2nd quarter, Sanchez fumbled while being sacked by Tony Brown, with Jevon Kearse recovering the ball at the Tennessee 45. Mark would close out the rest of the half 0 for 5, fumbling again but being bailed out by Thomas Jones on the recovery.

The Titans, wearing throwback Houston Oilers jerseys, scored 17 unanswered points until Sanchez bounced back, leading Gang Green (ironically in New York Titans attire) on a 7 play, 80 yard scoring drive, connecting with Jerricho Cotchery for the go-ahead touchdown. Sanchez would throw another interception, his third turnover of the game, but the Jets defense backed him up, squeezing the life out of the Titans offense.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14495
Chris Johnson, despite a 30-yard run and gaining over 100 all-purpose yards (97 rushing, 8 receiving), was relatively contained, never breaking free for a huge play. After falling behind 17-14, Rex Ryan dialed it up, putting immense pressure on Kerry Collins. In Tennessee's final 7 drives, Gang Green held the Titans offense to 4 three-and-outs, 1 interception, a punt and a turnover on downs. Collins, who started out 15-for-24, finished 0 for his final 13 pass attempts, being sacked once and throwing the one pick into the hands of David Harris.

The Jets head into New Orleans in Week 4, a heavyweight matchup pitting two of the NFL's remaining 7 undefeated teams. The Jets 3rd ranked defense has the daunting task of containing Drew Brees and the the Saints, who boast the league's top offense both in terms of yardage and points scored.