On the Heels of Victory

by Mike Trovato

Week 5- October 11th, 2009
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ







The New York Giants are still the toast of the town. Sure, there are the Yankees, but when it comes to football, following the Jets loss to the New Orleans Saints last weekend, Big Blue still stands unbeaten heading into week 5. And speaking of standing, Eli Manning's heel seems to be improving. Manning took part in the Giants walkthrough this morning, and it appears that most, if not all signs are pointing to Eli being able to play tomorrow.

Of course, this is good news for the G-men, who frankly would probably be wise to rest Manning and his plantar fascilitis, especially considering their matchup against the Saints next week in the Superdome- on turf. It might be best to play it safe against Oakland, because let's be honest, though he's obviously not Eli, David Carr does have talent and NFL experience, and at this juncture would probably have a legitimate shot at starting, were he on the Raiders roster.
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JaMarcus Russell (left), the #1 overall pick in 2007 seems to have regressed in a major way in his third season with Oakland. In amassing a QB rating of 77.1 last season, the refrigerator-esque Russell posted six games with12 or less completions, six games under 50% passing, and four games with a sub-50.0 QB rating. In the first four games of this season, the former LSU Tiger has yet to complete more than 12 passes, yet to break a 48.5 passer rating, and has completed over 50 percent of his passes just once.

As awful as Russel has been, Oakland's receiving corps hasn't given the 6'6," 260-pound QB much help at all. Raiders wide receivers have combined for 16 receptions for 256 yards, with just 2 catches coming from this year's first-round pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey. Granted, this doesn't include Oakland's running backs or tight ends, which have combined for an additional 29 catches and 267 yards, but no matter how you cut it, the Oakland Raiders offense is pretty bad.

http://www.giants.com/multimedia/Photos.html#

Case in point, Steve Smith of the Giants. Smith has emerged as Eli Manning's favorite target, and is the NFL leader in receptions (34), receiving yards (411) and receiving touchdowns (4). Smith's receptions are double that of the Raider wide receivers. In fact, the Giants second leading receiver Mario Manningham also has more catches (18), yards (306) and touchdowns (2) than Oakland's wideouts, which have contributed just one touchdown to the Raiders AFC-worst 10.5 points per game. That total is better than only the St. Louis Rams and their 6 PPG.

Steve Smith, all by himself, has scored as many points as the entire Rams team, and more touchdowns than the Raiders entire offense. Needless to say, I believe the Giants have little to worry about this week, at home against the Raiders. Even if Eli Manning sits, the Giants should be able to get by without needing much from anything but their defense, which has already scored 2 touchdowns- 1 more than Russell has thrown for.

Here are some more numbers so put the state of the Raiders into a little more perspective: Around the league, 45 individual players have at least 16 receptions, including 11 tight ends and 7 runnning backs. Individually, 20 players have more yards receiving than all of Oakland's wide receivers combined.

Key to the Game: QB Protection/Offensive Line
With the Giants running game averaging 145.5 yards a game, just under 75 percent of Oakland's average offensive output of 208.5 total yards per contest, the one key for the Giants is to protect whichever quarterback takes the snaps. The Raiders defense has produced 9 turnovers and 9 sacks. Playing a turnover-free game is all the Giants really need to focus on here.

Trivia Question/Out There Pick of the Week:
Normally I would highlight some key matchups, pick some key players, before predicting the outcome of this game. Instead, I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict something far more difficult, using trivia questions and a hint of sarcasm.

Trivia Question: Who the Raiders third string QB?
Answer: Charlie Frye.

This game could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Enter the relevance of the trivia question. I don't know if this will get bad enough to breach that special Charlie Frye threshold, but can you say Bruce Gradkowski? Perhaps Gradkowski (left) will see some time in the second half , and not at all necessarily due to a QB injury.

Here's another mind-bender, just for fun:
Trivia Question: How do you really hurt a 6'6," 260 pound quarterback?
Answer: There are two ways. 1- Go for the knees. But of course, that would be unsportsmanlike. 2-You put replace him with Bruce Gradkowski.
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Over/Under: 3.5 further public/broadcast/media mentions of Bruce Gradkowski's name before Sunday at 4 P.M.
I just said it 3 times here. Take the over.

Prediction:
In a game like this, so lopsided on paper, a home team favored as heavily as the Giants are might need to be cautious not to overlook a struggling visiting opponent like the Raiders. However, the Giants are a very well-coached football team, as the announcers pointed out last week on a play during which Kevin Boss tweaked his knee after a reception up the middle. http://www.giants.com/gallery.asp?section_id=414
As time wound down in the first half, needing to get to the line of scrimmage and quickly spike the ball, Boss' teammates alertly ran up the field, helped him off the ground and lined up for the spike. The play exemplified how disciplined the Giants are under Tom Coughlin (above), and the play allowed the Giants to kick a field goal to go into the half up 17-3.

That being said, I think there is little question as to whether or not the Giants will win, with or without Eli Manning. I might temper my expectations for Steve Smith, who will likely be shadowed by Nnamdi Asomugha, but I doubt the Giants will need to throw very much. With my similar prediction last week, the Giants fell 2 carries short of the 35 rushing attempts I anticipated, but with a less-than-100-percent Manning or David Carr, I'll go ahead and look for them to reach those 35+ carries this week.

Should the Giants control the clock with a healthy dose of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, that will mean less throwing attempts for JaMarcus Russell, though that may actually benefit the Raiders. I gave Matt Cassel the benefit of the doubt and predicted a fourth quarter score. I don't feel confident doing the same for any Raiders QB, regardless of whether it's Russell, Gradkowski, Frye, Rich Gannon, Jeff Hostetler, Ken Stabler, Daryle Lamonica or Cotton Davidson (all are actual former Raider quarterbacks). Whoever lines up behind center for Oakland, they'll probably need to throw a bunch in the second half, meaning we could be looking at a big day for the Big Blue D.
Giants 30, Raiders 9

MLB Playoffs: NLDS- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

by Mike Trovato

Before I jump into the Rockies/Phillies, let me first start by making my playoff predictions, as my work schedule may prevent me from posting each series breakdown before they get started:

ALDS- Twins vs. Yankees- Yankees in 4
ALDS- Red Sox vs. Angels- Red Sox in 5
NLDS- Rockies vs. Phillies- Phillies in 4
NLDS- Cardinals vs. Dodgers- Cardinals in 4

NLCS- Cardinals vs. Phillies- Cardinals in 6
ALCS- Red Sox vs. Yankees- Yankees in 7

World Series- Cardinals vs. Yankees- Cardinals in 6


National League Divisional Series
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies







Overview: Neither team goes into this series hot, but keep in mind that the Phillies wrapped up the NL East early, and gave their starters significant rest during the final week of the season. Colorado, on the other hand, played competitive baseball down to the wire, having had the chance to win the NL West in a 3-game series against the Dodgers on the final weekend of the regular season.

The Phillies have home field advantage in the first round, and given that Jimenez and Cook have struggled there, Philadelphia should be able to at least start off more like 2008 than 2007. Whichever team can put up runs early stands a good chance of winning the series, the Phils in particular. Manager Charlie Manuel has not officially named a closer on account of everyone struggling at the back end of the 'pen, and there has even been talk about J.A. Happ being in the mix for save opportunities.

Happ has been solid, but given the uncertainty of the situation, the worst thing for the Phillies would be a high scoring series of games that requires their bullpen arms to log valuable innings. The Rockies best shot is to score early, keep games close and get past the Phillie starters.

COLORADO ROCKIES: NL Wildcard, 92-70

The Rockies are making their second playoff appearance in the last three years. In 2007, Colorado went on a tear in late September, carrying into October to the tune of 20 wins in 21 games. The Rockies swept through the Phillies in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks in the NLCS before being swept in the World Series by the Boston Red Sox.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook will be the Game 1 and 2 starters respectively for the Rockies this time around. Jimenez is 0-1 in 2 with an 8.10 ERA in 2 lifetime regular season starts against the Phillies, both games being played at Citizens Bank Park. Jimenez did beat the Phillies- in Colorado- in the clinching Game 3 back in 2007, allowing just a solo home run to Shane Victorino over 6 1/3. Cook has never beaten the Phillies, though his 4.91 ERA against them is slightly better, which isn't saying much.

The Rockies starting lineup will be almost the same as it was in 2007, the biggest difference being that Matt Holliday is no longer with the club. Jeff Francis has been out all year following shoulder surgery, however Jorge de la Rosa has stepped up to fill that void nicely, winning 16 games this season in Francis' absence to help the Rockies surge from 20-33 to the NL Wildcard.
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On a relevant but relatively inconsequential note, Kaz Matsui is no longer on the team, but Clint Barmes has provided surprising power, belting 23 home runs and 76 RBI this season. Garrett Atkins has regressed significantly since '07, and Ian Stewart has taken over as the starting third baseman. Stewart was one of four Rockies with 20+ home runs, along with Barmes, Troy Tulowitzki (right) and Brad Hawpe. Interestingly enough, Colorado did not have a single player drive in 100 runs this season, as Tulowitzki led the team with 92.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: NL East Champions, 93-69

Cliff Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, has performed well for the reigning World Champions since being acquired from Cleveland in July, and will get the ball in Game 1. Lee struggled in his final two starts of the regular season, allowing 10 runs over 11.2 innings. Through his last 10 starts, Lee walked just 7 batters, posting a 3.96 ERA with a 5-4 record.

Cole Hamels, the Phillies' Game 2 starter, had a down year following a solid 2008 campaign. Hamels finished sub-.500 (10-11) for the first time in his career, and his .277 BAA and 4.32 ERA were by far his worst.

After a phenomenal 2008 season, the Phillies bullpen is in shambles this season, headlined by Brad Lidge's woes. Lidge, who was a perfect 43 for 43 in save opportunities (41 regular season, 2 playoffs) in '08, was 0-8 with 11 blown saves and an ERA of 7.21, career worsts for any full season by 5 blown saves and 1.93 full earned runs. Of all 8 playoff teams this season, only the Dodgers have blown more saves (26) than Philadelphia (22).
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Despite the question marks about pitching, when it comes to hitting, without question, the Phillies bats are lethal, though it will be interesting to see whether the rest will benefit or hurt the Phillies bats heading into the NLDS. The World Champs hit the most home runs (224) in the National League, tied with the Rangers and behind only the Yankees (244) for the Major League lead. Led by Ryan Howard's (left) 45 home runs, Philadelphia had four players with 30+ homers this season: Jayson Werth (36), Raul Ibanez (34) and Chase Utley (31).

Prediction: Given the pitching matchups, I believe the Phillies will take care of business, especially at Citizens Bank Park. The Rockies may take one in Game 3 at home, though the Pedro Martinez investment may have yet to pay its biggest dividends should Manuel hand him the ball in Colorado.
Phillies in 4.