Week 6 Preview: Jets vs. Bills

by Mike Trovato

Week 6- October 18th, 2009
Buffalo Bills (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2)
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ







At the beginning of the season, many of their fans would have been content, if not excited, if the New York Jets began the 2009 campaign 3-2. Yet after a 3-0 start, 3-2 doesn't quite have the ring to it that it did back in the beginning of September. While one of the three on the left side of the ledger represents a victory over the hated New England Patriots, on the other side is a loss to the Miami Dolphins, not quite as bitter but still far from sweet.

The strengths of the New York Jets, just a few short months into the Rex Ryan regime, have been a healthy balance of quasi-conservative but effective offense and a staggering defense, quite similar to the Baltimore Ravens of last season. In games 1 through 3, Gang Green executed this "Flacco formula," if you will, to a T. With their own rookie QB leading the offense to 4 passing touchdowns and another 3 rushing on the ground, the defense took care of business, holding opposing offenses scoreless for 9 quarters before the Titans cracked the goal line in the second quarter of week 3.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/teams/photo?photoId=2355013&team=mia
Weeks 4 and 5 have been a different story, revealing a telling circumstance- for this team to succeed, they must play well on both sides of the ball. The defense held up their end of the bargain in week 4, holding New Orleans' high-octane offense to just 10 points two weeks ago, but Mark Sanchez handed 14 points to the Saints defense, committing four turnovers to seal the first Jet loss of the year. Last week against the Dolphins, Sanchez redeemed himself somewhat with a modest but efficient turnover-free performance, going 12-for-24 with a touchdown strike to newly acquired Braylon Edwards. Yet, despite a season high 27 point output, the defense also gave up a season high in surrendering 413 yards to the gimmicky wildcat offense, 151 on the ground led by Ronnie Brown's 2 touchdowns (above).

Leading up to Miami, the Jets had given up an increasing amount of rushing yards week by week, though Miami's running game actually totaled 2 less yards than the Saints did the previous week. Nonetheless, the more disturbing statistic involved the passing game. In just his fourth career start, Chad Henne compiled 241 passing yards, the highest of any quarterback against the Jets this season, more than Matt Schaub (145), Tom Brady (216), and Drew Brees (190). Schaub and Brady are 3rd and 4th in passing yardage this season, respectively.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-5-vs-Cleveland/44aec600-adc4-49cf-aabf-e09353ffdcac
Following consecutive losses on the road- one loss apiece attributed to the offense and the defense- the New York Jets should be glad to return home this week to face a Buffalo Bills team that is reeling after an ugly 6-3 loss to the woeful Cleveland Browns, a previously winless team under the direction of a controversial and highly unpopular head coach who just traded away the best receiver on the roster. Nonetheless, in the midst of the hell that is the Cleveland Browns franchise, despite a miserable 2 for 17 performance by Derek Anderson, Buffalo found a way to lose. How they did it, I don't know, but frankly, it's beyond me.

The Bills have taken leaps and bounds- backwards- since their devastating week 1 loss to the Patriots. Buffalo's troubles began with Leodis McKelvin's fumbled kick return that allowed Brady to orchestrate a game-winning drive. Since then, the low-lights have continued steadily, with the Saints running game stampeding for 222 yards in week 3, followed by a 250-yard, 3-score debacle at the hands of the Wildcat in week 4.

One of the few pluses in Buffalo was the return of running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gotten off to a slow start after serving a 3-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. Lynch has actually performed better in the passing game than when running the ball, though the team's leading receiver is Lynch's backfield counterpart Fred Jackson, who has caught 20 passes. The two backs have already connected with QB Trent Edwards just 5 less times than Buffalo's wide receivers. Lynch's 11 catches rank fourth on the Bills roster behind Jackson, Lee Evans and Terrell Owens.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-3-vs-New-Orleans/a566b437-fa2d-4bcc-abc9-c97759a1e2fd
Owens (left) has been a major bust since joining "North America's Team" this offseason, and has just 12 catches for 202 yards and one TD through 5 games. His streak of 185 consecutive games with at least one reception came to an abrupt end in week 3, yet the controversial wideout has been uncharacteristically silent about his situation, at least with the media. Still, T.O. has been the center of trade rumors circling around the Bills leading up to Tuesday's upcoming deadline.

With From the firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert in the preseason, the lack of performance from the offense, and a defense that seems completely unable to stop the run, it's clear that the Buffalo Bills are in a state of disarray. This only bodes well for the Jets, who are 9.5 point favorites this week as a result.

Key Matchup: WR Braylon Edwards vs. CB's Terrence McGee/Drayton Florence
With Leodis McKelvin out for the season with a broken leg, Braylon Edwards (right) and the Jets receivers will be looking at McGee and Florence from across the line of scrimmage. Edwards performed well in his Jets debut, catching 5 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown, with a potential second score ruled down on the 1 upon review. The former Brown could see more passes his way this week, having had more practice time with his new teammates, combined with the absence of Jerricho Cotchery, who will miss this contest with a hamstring injury. The 6'3," 215-pound Edwards has a clear height advantage against either corner; Florence is giving 3 inches and 15 pounds while McGee is even smaller at 5'9," 198.

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14774

Key Matchup: Jets Pass Rush vs. Bills O-Line
The Jets defense, which has been solid in 4 out of its 5 games, is surprisingly tied for dead last in the NFL with 4 sacks. Trent Edwards has been sacked four or more times in three games this season. Only Aaron Rodgers (20) has been brought down more times than than the 18 sacks Edwards has sustained this season. Inevitably, something has to give here: Either Edwards finally gets some breathing room, or the Jets finally explode. Coming off a lackluster defensive performance from which Chad Henne emerged unscathed, I expect the latter this week.

Jets' Wildcards: TE Dustin Keller/RB Leon Washington
Both Keller and Washington are still waiting for a breakout game this season, and this week might be it for at least one of them. In 6 career games against Buffalo, Washington has averaged 6.1 yards per carry, adding on 7.9 yards per catch. He has never broken 85 total yards from scrimmage in any game against the Bills, but with the Jets down 2 receivers, Washington has the hands to pick up some of the slack, and the big play ability to do some damage.

As for Keller, I know he didn't deliver in the Superdome like I expected he would, and he was non-existent last week against Miami. However, Buffalo has yielded 21 receptions, 229 yards and 3 touchdowns to tight ends this season. Linebacker Paul Posluszny (broken arm) and Donte Whitner (thumb) should both be returning from their respective injuries this week, while injuries to the Jets receivers leave Wallace Wright as third on the depth chart. Keller is a far more viable target than Wright, and could finally have that big week as one of Mark Sanchez' top three options.

Prediction:
Without question, both teams have a lot to play for, albeit in very different terms. New York is looking to recapture their form from earlier this season that had people thinking playoffs, while the Bills are desperate to stop the bleeding and fend off a fourth consecutive loss, which would drop them into a three game deficit at 1-5.

Both teams are hurting, but again in varying respects. The Jets are hurting, both from injury and last week's insult at the hands of the Dolphins. Buffalo is hurting mostly from insult, having just lost to the Browns, a loss so bad that I must again point out that Derek Anderson completed 2 passes, total, just to emphasize how epic the loss was. Yet, as uneven as this week 6 matchup may seem (as I mentioned earlier, the spread is 9.5 points in the Jets favor) surprisingly the Jets and Bills are tied for 23rd in the league with their 4.9 yards per play.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-5-vs-Cleveland/44aec600-adc4-49cf-aabf-e09353ffdcac
That being said, this game will likely come down to defense, and in that respect, the Jets undoubtedly have the edge. The Bills do have two solid running backs, but what they don't have is the Wildcat to cause confusion with their ground attack. Marshawn Lynch (left) busted out for 127 yards on 21 carries on the road against the Jets last season, but aside from last week's road bump, this year's defense is far different than anything Lynch is used to seeing from Gang Green. Rex Ryan will almost definitely have the D raring, and they'll be in a nasty mood after being embarrassed last week. I'd look for them to join the offense and return to the form we saw earlier this season.

On the offensive side of the ball, the timing of the injuries to Cotchery and Smith come with some potential for a silver lining; Gang Green is 7th in the league with 132 yards per game on the ground, and that average could be boosted against a Buffalo defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run. As for the Bills offensive attack, Trent Edwards has been less than inspiring, and if the rumors have any validity to them, "Who are the Buffalo Bills?" could wind up being the Jeopardy question to the answer, "The team with which Terrell Owens had his shortest tenure."

Yes, we will all be watching in great suspense T.O.'s 6th, and perhaps final game as a Bill. As loud as he has been in the past, this could be his quietest exit from any team he's played for, both at the mic and on the field; the Jets defense will be making the majority of the noise here.
Jets 27, Bills 12

With Dolphins Ahead, Was Sanchez' Floundering a Fluke?

by Mike Trovato

* Despite the title of this post, let it be known that the fish-related puns end here.

Week 5- October 12th, 2009
New York Jets (3-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Land Shark Stadium, Opa-Locka, FL







Sometimes, the best way to move past a bad performance is to get right back on the field. For Mark Sanchez, he's had an extra day to think about a game he would like to forget.

The New York Jets head into Miami for a Monday night football showdown of division rivals. The Jets and Dolphins have a long history of great games, including the greatest comeback in NFL history and Monday Night Football all-time classic, dubbed the "Monday Night Miracle" back in 2000.

This time around, there is no Vinny Testaverde, Curtis Martin or Wayne Chrebet, no Jumbo Elliot to catch an improbable touchdown to send a 37-37 game into overtime. The cast of characters this time around will be Sanchez, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and the Jets latest acquisition, former Browns wide receiver Braylon Edwards.
http://www.giantstalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/braylon-edwards.jpg
Edwards (left) is two seasons removed from an 80-catch, 1,289-yard 16-touchdown 2007 season, but has seen his production decline over his last 19 games. In '07, the former Michigan Wolverine compiled four 100-yard games, four 8-reception games, and four games with multiple touchdowns. From that point on, he has broken 100 yards just three times and caught 8 passes in a game just once. Edwards has zero 2-TD games, and his last score came in week 9 of last season. Since then, the Browns have gone 1-11 leading up to this week's trade of the disgruntled receiver, who could benefit from the change of scenery.

The Browns-Jets deal marks the second major trade between Eric Mangini and his old team in the past 6 months. The first of course came on draft day, when Gang Green moved into Cleveland's #5 draft slot to grab Mark Sanchez. Wednesday's trade sent WR Chansi Stuckey, LB and special teams stud Justin Trusnik and two draft picks to Cleveland in exchange for Edwards, who was the #3 overall pick in the 2005 draft.

http://neworleanssaints.com/Home/Multimedia/Photo%20Galleries.aspx?year=2009&month=10

The 6'3" Edwards will give Mark Sanchez a big target, especially in the red zone, and could help the rookie bounce back from last week's disaster in New Orleans. Sanchez came as close to a single-handed loss as one can come, committing four turnovers, two of which occurred less than 6 minutes apart, each resulting in Saints defensive touchdowns. The defense was again fantastic for Rex Ryan, but was not enough to overcome Sanchez' rookie mistakes.

Edwards, having played for Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan in Cleveland, will make his Jets debut for the other Ryan twin Rex in the spotlight of the Monday night stage, but could see added pressure to produce right away if Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) cannot play. Cotchery has missed the past few days of practice, and is questionable. That, combined with Edwards not being fully accustomed to the offense yet, plus Sanchez trying to rebound, the Jets D will need to show up even bigger against a Dolphins team that beat up on the Buffalo Bills last weekend.

The Bills are clearly moving in reverse, but the Dolphins' performance was still impressive, allowing just 46 rushing yards to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, who accumulated 4 yards on 8 carries in his return from suspension. Miami nailed Trent Edwards for 6 sacks, forcing 3 interceptions as they shut down Buffalo 38-10. In his first start replacing Chad Pennington, Chad Henne was a respectable 14 for 22, and did not turn the ball over, though he, like Edwards, was sacked 6 times. Henne was backed by a running game that spotted him 250 yards, led by Ronnie Brown's 115 yards and another 85 from Ricky Williams.

Key Matchup: Jets Linebackers vs. RB Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams
With Miami lacking a true #1 receiver, Darrelle Revis should have little trouble containing the likes of Ted Ginn, Jr., Davone Bess, Brian Hartline or Greg Camarillo- whomever he winds up lining up against. The ground game is where the Dolphins hurt their opponents, thanks to the deceptive and confusing Wildcat offense. Last season, Rex Ryan's Ravens D shut down the Wildcat, jumping out to a 17-6 first half lead, containing Miami to 71 yards on the ground. Pennington was forced to make things happen with Brown and Williams in check, and did not fare well. The game plan should be the same for Ryan's Jet defense on Monday night, this time against the far more inexperienced Henne.

New York will welcome back another huge piece of their defense, linebacker Calvin Pace, who contributed 80 tackles, 7 sacks and 5 forced fumbles in 2008, his first season as a Jet. Pace will join Bart Scott, David Harris and Vernon Gholston as a key member of one of the most talented linebacking corps in the league. That combination gives the Jets the personnel to tame the Wildcat, should they get to the second level of the Jets D. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/mia/photos#photoViewer=urn%3Anewsml%3Asports.yahoo%2Cgetty%3A20050301%3Anfl%2Cphoto%2C9810494483ecee3b861219ad0a63d6ef-getty-88971979db029_buffalo_bills%3A1
Key Matchup: QB Mark Sanchez vs. Dolphins Secondary
Both teams are coming off of three interception performances last week, but in very different ways. The Dolphins defense pulled down their first three interceptions of the season at the expense of Trent Edwards last week; Mark Sanchez threw for three picks. There is no doubt that Sanchez will try to make up for that, but he will need to be careful not to overcompensate.

Sanchez must protect the ball, something he has struggled with, and make smart throws to keep the Dolphins honest. If he can do so, the presencel of Braylon Edwards should spread Miami out, opening things up for Leon Washington and Thomas Jones. With Miami surely riding the wave of last week's lopsided victory, the Jets need to return to their game plan from their first three games: hammer opponents on defense and allow Sanchez to manage the offense without forcing plays.

Stat of the Week: Sacks
The Dolphins are tied for 6th in the NFL with 11 sacks. The Jets, as stellar as they have been on defense, are tied for 30th with 4, just one more than the league worst Jaguars D. However, the Buffalo Bills were able to bring down Chad Henne 6 times last week, despite Miami having run the ball over 61 percent of the time (45 rushes in 73 plays). That being said, the Jets could be looking at a breakout week in the sack category.

Likewise for Miami, Mark Sanchez was extremely vulnerable last week, holding on to the ball too long on numerous occasions, resulting in 4 Saints sacks. After not being sacked at all in Week 1, Sanchez has been brought down with the ball consistently more in each successive week; twice in week 2, three times in week 3 leading up to last week's four. If Sanchez and the Jets O-line cannot reverse this trend, the Dolphins could pull off a victory on Monday night.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14573
Prediction:
Well, I was dead wrong last week anticipating a big game from Mark Sanchez, as he instead gift wrapped the game for Sean Payton's Saints, whose explosive offense was held in check all game long. As confident as I've been in the Jets thus far, I am that uncertain about our rookie QB this week. The Jets coaching staff has undoubtedly been working with him, but the difference in this game could easily be parallelled by the amount of time Sanchez spends overthinking his decisions.

The bottom line is that this Jet team has too much talent and potential to allow the rook to give games away, and although it's a bit early to talk about a benching, we all saw what can happen when Mark can't regain that uncanny poise we saw through week 3. If Sanchez' pressing carries over from last week, Rex Ryan may need to take that more aggressive approach to settling the kid down.

Remember, Miami is essentially starting its own rookie; though Henne is in his second year, he has less games under his belt than Sanchez. I'll give the former Trojan Sanchez the benefit of the doubt this week, but he absolutely must put last week out of his mind and play fluently and naturally. It may mean a modest 15 for 23, under 200 passing yards and no TD tosses, but if it also means zero turnovers, handing the ball off, controlling the clock and taking the thought process out of the flow of the game, so be it.
Jets 13, Miami 10