MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series (Part 2)

by Mike Trovato

Last but not least...

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

Atlanta Braves
Overview: Of all the managerial changes we will see this offseason, the most notable will be the replacement of Bobby Cox after 25 seasons in Atlanta. The changing of the guard has already been evident on the field, with Chipper Jones being the last remaining piece of the Braves dynasty of the 90's. Rookie Jason Heyward has been a sparkplug for a Braves offense that has been plagued by injuries all season long. No Braves position player appeared in more than 147 games, contributing to what at best an average offense throughout the season.

The pitching staff has carried Atlanta through the rough offensive patches, ranking seventh in fewest walks allowed (505), sixth in strikeouts (1,241), tied for sixth in opponents batting average (.246), 3rd overall in ERA (3.56), and best in the league in home runs allowed (126). The most dominant stretch of pitching began on April 30th, the day after the Braves had lost their 9th consecutive game. At that point, Atlanta was in last place with a record of 8-14, five games behind the first place Mets. That all changed on the 30th, as Braves began a run of .667 baseball, compiling a 44-22 record through the All-Star break.

Over those 66 games, Atlanta lost just eight games in May, and Braves pitching held its opponents to 3 runs or less in 41 of those contests. By the time of the mid-summer classic, they had propelled themselves into first place, four games up on New York in the standings. Although Cox's squad squandered a seven game lead in the final two months, they managed to cling to the wildcard spot on the season's final day.

Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Derrek Lee, IF Alex Gonzalez, OF Rick Ankiel

San Francisco Giants
Overview: All the talk about pitching in the National League has been about the Philadelphia Phillies, But led by the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, San Francisco's pitching staff posted a league-best 3.36 ERA, and was the only club to strike out over 1,300 batters (1,331). Over the final month of the season, the Giants pitching has been surreal. In the starting rotation, the combination of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner combined for a dazzling 141 innings, allowing just 97 hits and 30 walks while striking out 150 en route to a collective 1.66 ERA and 13-4 record. As for the bullpen, Giants relievers held opponents to a .164 batting average in September, striking out 60 while allowing just 49 batters to reach base.

With Pat Burrell leading a re-vamped Giants outfield, the revival of Aubrey Huff's career and the emergence of rookie catcher Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy's crew climbed its way out of fourth place in the NL West. The Giants bats woke up after the All-Star break, slugging the most home runs (80) in the National League, while the pitching staff got even more stingy. In the second half of the season, the Giants recorded a 3.20 team ERA and saved a Major League best 36 games behind closer Brian Wilson. Burrell was a force replacing Pablo Sandoval in the middle of the lineup, slamming 18 home runs and driving in 51, compiling a .872 OPS in the process.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: OF Pat Burrell, OF Jose Guillen, OF Cody Ross, RP Chris Ray

Prediction: Offensively, the Braves and Giants are actually pretty similar:

• Stolen Bases: Giants 55; Braves 63
• Strikeouts: Giants 1,099; Braves 1,140
  
• Slugging: Giants. .408; Braves .401
• Neither team had a player reach 90 RBI

Although both teams are similar over the course of the season in pitching stats as well, there are three factors that will separate Atlanta and San Francisco in this series- experience, rest and momentum.

When it comes to pitching, the Braves have experience on their side. Bobby Cox's Game 1 starter Derek Lowe has amassed a career 3.33 ERA in 82 2/3 postseason innings. Atlanta's Game 2 starter Tim Hudson has a 3.97 playoff ERA with 47 2/3 innings under his belt. Then there's Billy Wagner. As good as he has been for Atlanta this season, Wagner has a horrendous postseason line, an ERA over 10.00 in 11 1/3 innings pitched. Of the Giants three projected NLDS starters, none have ever thrown a pitch in baseball's second season.

In the bullpen, each team has five what I call "regular" relief pitchers-that is, relievers with over 50 appearances on the season. In this regard, San Francisco holds the clear edge. Of the Giants five regular relief men (Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Guillermo Mota), all besides Mota lowered their ERA in the second half of the season. Conversely, Takashi Saito was the only Braves reliever to log a lower ERA post-All-Star break than before it. Every other regular- Johnny Venters, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty and Wagner- saw their ERA rise as the season wound down. As far as rest is concerned, the Giants bullpen got it down the stretch, pitching just 75 1/3 innings over the final month. Braves relievers racked up 107 2/3 innings, which could leave Atlanta's 'pen out of steam.


The third factor, the one that bodes well for Bruce Bochy's young Giants staff is momentum. Momentum can disrupt a level playing field, and in this regard the Braves have none. Bobby Cox's club compiled an uninspiring 14-16 record over their last 30 games. The Giants on the other hand enjoyed an 18-8 September in which their pitching staff's ERA almost matched their opponents' average against them (1.78 ERA, 1.82 BAA). Being that this series should be a relatively low-scoring affair, that spells a major role for the bullpens, which will be the difference maker in favor of San Francisco.

Giants defeat Braves, 3 games to 1

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series

by Mike Trovato

On the eve of the Major League Baseball playoffs (and by the time this post goes up, it won't be the eve any more), I figure it's only appropriate to make some predictions. So, here it goes...

American League Division Series

Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

Texas Rangers
The revival of Vladamir Guerrero's career, along with Rangers' slugging center fielder Josh Hamilton helped Texas ran away with the AL West. Despite a streaky September in which the Rangers compiled a 5-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in succession, Texas still finished 9 games ahead of second place Oakland. Hamilton missed a month of action before making his return to the lineup for the final regular season series, going 3-for-11 with a home run and 3 RBI, his 100th of the season. Hamilton finished the year with a ML-best .359 average, never dipping below .340 after July 4th.

Key Mid-season Acquisitions: SP Cliff Lee, C Bengie Molina, RF Jeff Francoeur, IF/OF Christian Guzman, IF Jorge Cantu

Tampa Bay Rays
Overview: Fueled by the arm of Cy Young candidate David Price, the Rays take the American League's best record into this year's postseason despite backing their way into the AL East title over the Yankees. Tampa Bay finished 13-14 over their final 27 games, averaging a mere 2.0 runs over their last 8 contests. Third Baseman Evan Longoria, the Rays leader in doubles, RBI and OPS, has msised the final 10 games with a quad injury, and will not be at full strength for the ALDS opener.

Mid-season Acquisitions: RP Chad Qualls, OF Brad Hawpe

Head-to-Head in 2010: Tampa won the season series between the two clubs 4-2, outscoring Texas 24-11 in their 3 game sweep of the Rangers back in August. Matt Garza racked up wins in both series, logging 14 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP over 12.2 total innings.

Prediction: The Rangers can hit, and led all of baseball with a .276 team Batting Average. If their pitching comes through, the Rays and their paltry .247 BA may struggle to produce, especially if Evan Longoria shows signs of rust. With C.J. Wilson's sub-3.00 road ERA and Tampa slated to throw the struggling James Shields in Game 2, the Rangers could find themselves in position to sting the Rays in Arlington, where they were 51-30 on their turf. Yet, I still figure the teams will trade wins, and the series will come down to Cliff Lee and David Price in a Game 5 scenario. Lee has been shaky since joining Texas in July, but his performance in the 2009 postseason makes him a big game lock until proven otherwise, which will be the difference.

Rangers defeat Rays, 3 games to 2

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)

New York Yankees
Overview: C.C. Sabathia finished 2010 at 21-7, tied for the Major League lead in victories. Of course, it doesn't hurt when your offense smashes the third highest home run total in the league. The Bombers slugged 201 dingers, propelling them to the most runs scored (859) of any team in the majors by far. Alex Rodriguez, despite his lowest OBP and SLG output since 1997 and a career low .270 full-season batting average, posted his 13th consecutive 30 HR-100 RBI season. Along with Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, the trio of infielders combined for the most run production of any three teammates in baseball. Curtis Granderson came on strong in September to finish out the year with 24 round-trippers.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Lance Berkman, OF Austin Kearns, RP Kerry Wood...

It's worth nothing that Kerry Wood has been lights out since joining the Yankees at the trading deadline, posting a 0.69 ERA over 26 innings. Wood's 10 holds are the highest among any Yankees reliever since he was acquired from Cleveland.

Minnesota Twins
Overview: The Twins seem to be one of the best franchises top to bottom in all of baseball. Their current starting lineup consists of 5 home-grown players- Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Danny Valencia-, and that doesn't include Justin Morneau, who will miss the entire 2010 postseason. The Twins pitching staff is littered with Twins draftees: Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Alex Burnett, Jesse Crain, Brian Duensing, Jeff Manship, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey. Needless to say, year in and year out, they put a winning product on the field. 2010 was no different, as the Twins were second in baseball in OBP (.341) and triples (41), third in the league in team batting (.273) and doubles (318), and second in the American League in fewest errors committed (78) and fielding percentage (.987). In typical Twins fashion, the whole was greater than the sum of its parts, as Minnesota had a different leader for every major statistical offensive category:

• Runs Scored- Michael Cuddyer (93)
• Batting Average- Joe Mauer (.327)
• Home Runs- Jim Thome (25)
• Runs Batted In- Delmon Young (112)
• Stolen Bases- Denard Span (26)
  

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: CL Matt Capps, RP Brian Fuentes

Head-to-Head in 2010: New York took 2 of 3 in each set between the two clubs this season, despite only outscoring the Twins 24-21 over the six games. In the three games at Target Field, however, Minnesota held the Yankees to just 6 runs, which may be a factor given that the Twins have home field advantage. Andy Pettitte picked up two of the four Yankee victories against Minnesota in May.

Prediction: The Twins finally have the home field advantage in the playoffs for a change, which bodes well for them since they have best home record in baseball (53-28). What does not bode well for them is that they once again drawn their kryptonite, the New York Yankees. The Yankees have knocked Minnesota out of three of their previous four postseason appearances, including a three game sweep in the 2009 ALDS. Minnesota won't get swept again, and their left-handed pitching may throw off the reigning World Champs. Andy Pettitte's health is in question, and could be crucial should the series require a Game 5, but it probably won't go that far. The Twins should be able to pull out a win, but if the Yankees opt to throw Sabathia up 2-1, that will be about all.

Yankees defeat Twins, 3 games to 1


National League Division Series

Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

Cincinnati Reds
Overview: The Reds have fought their way back into the playoffs after a 15 year hiatus. With leadership from Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera and Bronson Arroyo, the Reds have a mix of seasoned veterans to go along with their emerging young core of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Cincinnati has been an offensive jugggernaut, leading ann National League teams in team batting (.271), slugging (.436), OPS (.774), home runs (188) and run production (790). Votto, top-3 in every triple crown category, has been an absolute monster, leading the team in virtually every offensive statistic except triples: 106 runs, 177 hits, 36 doubles, 37 home runs, 113 RBI, 328 total bases, 91 walks, .324 BA, .424 OBP, .600 SLG. He even swiped 16 stolen bases, tying him for second on the team. The question for the Reds lies in their bullpen, where closer Francisco Cordero blew 8 save attempts, and it's possible that Dusty Baker could turn to the flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman and his 105 MPH fastball in save situations.

Philadelphia Phillies
Overview: The Phillies have been the cream of the crop in Major League Baseball over the past three seasons. With a veteran core already full of postseason experience, Philadelphia added not one but two aces (and Roys) to their pitching rotation. Collectively for the Phillies, Halladay and Oswalt compiled a combined 28-11 record, 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10 complete games, 5 shutouts, and one perfect game. All this with Oswalt having been on another team for the first four months of the season. Those numbers make Cole Hamels' 12-11, 3.06, 1.18- respectable numbers indeed- seem like that of a minor league prospect.
With a plethora of injuries to their starting position players, only 5 Phillies appeared in over 120 games. Of their eight opening day starters, only Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez avoided the disabled list. Still, the Phillies operated like a well-oiled machine. On the morning of July 8th, Philadelphia sat in third place, just three games over .500 at 43-40. From that point on, the Phils went 54-25, overcoming what was at its height a 7-game deficit to overtake the National League East for the fourth straight season.

Prediction: The Reds may be a feisty bunch, and have a lot to look forward to going forward. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies are capable of winning a slugfest as well as a pitcher's duel. Philadelphia amassed 21 wins in September, and in those 21 wins, H2O took 13 while the offense pushed 130 runs across home plate. Let's err on the side of logic, given that the Reds will face the most dominant threesome of starting pitching in baseball. Even if Cincy's top-ranked run-producing offense can manage putting some numbers on the board, their pitching will be no match for a Phillies offense that ranked right behind them.

Phillies defeat Reds, 3 games to 1


I should get to the Braves and Giants before the series starts on Friday, but in case I don't, I'll go with the Giants... Stay tuned.

Ball Drops on Minaya & Manuel as Mets Drop the Ball

by Mike Trovato

Since the early 1900's, it has been a New York tradition to ring in the changing of the calendar year by gathering together to watch the dropping of the ball. Over 100 years later, certain inhabitants of the Big Apple are honoring the age-old tradition in their own unique way.

Replace a bitter cold Times Square with mild air wafting throughout Citi Field, the excitement of a dense Broadway crowd with the solemness of sparsely scattered die-hards rushing the countdown as the Mets said goodbye to 2010 in the spirit of New York- dropping the ball.

Over their last five games of the season the Mets did just that, committing six fielding errors as the final home stand of 2010 adequately represented some of the glaring shortcomings of the past few years. Some poor fielding, the ever-present injury bug, and a pinch of Oliver Perez.

The errors were only part of the scene during the final handful of games. Though the Mets did manage to score 19 runs in that span, 14 of them came in two 7-run productions, with the remaining five runs scattered among the other three games. Without the help of Carlos Beltran, who was once again on the shelf with mild inflammation in his surgically repaired knee, the Mets stranded 37 men on the base paths, including 10 in Sunday's 14-inning defeat at the hands of the perennial cellar-dwelling Washington Nationals. And to add insult to injury, what better way to close things out than with a vintage Ollie P performance?
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In just his fourth appearance since August 1st, Perez issued more free passes than a middle school hall monitor, hitting Adam Kennedy, then walking the bases loaded before sending Jason Maxwell to first with the easiest game-winning RBI he'll ever have. Only then did Jerry Manuel pull the plug, and Perez trudged off the field to the familiar chorus of boos, as Mets fans got one last reminder of exactly why he was the the Kevin McCallister of the Mets bullpen. Frankly, he might as well just have stayed home.

The Mets went quietly in the bottom of the 14th, and that was that.

2010 is officially over.

Not literally, but as far as the New York Mets are concerned, welcome to 2011. Because the 2010 season was a "last" year in many, many ways.

We've heard the last of Omar Minaya's promises, the last of his disjointed statements to the media. We've seen the last of his roster maneuvers, along with the last of his non-maneuvers. We've shared the last of Jerry Manuel's warm laughs, and empathizing with the last of his stressed-out groans, trying to justify the unjustifiable.
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To assign all the blame to these two men would be totally unfair. I like Jerry Manuel, I really do. And although he was often criticized for his lack of fire and questionable managerial decisions, Manuel deserves credit for a 55-38 finish in 2008, reviving the Mets season after replacing Willie Randolph. Likewise, credit Omar Minaya for a number of seemingly forgotten great moves over the years. Tally up the acquisitions, draft picks and free agent signings. Tally up the Johan Santanas, the Mike Pelfreys, Jon Nieses and Josh Tholes. Chalk up the Angel Pagans, R.A. Dickeys and Hisanori Takahashis, all players that made major contributions in 2010.

Good moves and bad moves aside, when all was said and done, the bottom line remains that a General Manager and Manager are not measured by the moves they make, but whether or not those moves translate into one thing and one thing only: winning. And the Mets have won virtually nothing. No World Series, no National League pennants, and just one NL East crown.

Minaya and Manuel dropped the ball, and the ball had dropped on the New York Mets. Now it's time to turn the page. Time to face the music.

Happy New Year.


Looking Back

Looking back at a 2010 full of lasts, without mentioning any names, let's hope for a few more lasts...
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Let's hope that we've seen the last of the unnecessarily massive contracts for sub-.500 pitchers or 32 year-old second basemen past their prime. No more number forty-sixes in blue and orange, whose selfishness and unwillingness to do so much as to try to straighten himself out in the minor leagues left the poor manager an arm short in the bullpen day in and day out. No more embarrassing dropped pop-ups against those cross-town rivals.

Let's hope that we've seen the last of the disconnect and lack of communication between players, coaches and front office personnel. No more tirades by development personnel directed at players, Major Leaguers or minor leaguers, shirtless or otherwise. No more surprise off-season surgeries and the he-said, he-said as to whether or not they were sanctioned by the team.

Let's hope that we've endured the last of trying to stay afloat until the regulars return. No more medical mishaps, no more pushing back onto the field the clearly injured, just to further clarify the realness and severity of their injuries. No more sitting on our hands like we've done enough, when clearly more needs to be done. No more of the "we can compete if" this or that. No more second half collapses. No more negativity.

Instead, let's make some resolutions for 2011. In fact, let's make just one. From this point on, let's not just say we want the New York Mets to be a winning franchise, let's operate like one.


Looking Forward

If you look at the eight teams in this year's playoffs, only two of them have a payroll of over $140 million. Perhaps it's no coincidence that those two teams- the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees- were adversaries in the 2009 World Series. But the remaining three quarters of those teams made the postseason having spent under $100M, which just goes to show that money doesn't necessarily buy you a playoff berth.

The Cincinnati Reds ($68.2M) locked up the NL Central spending half of what the Mets ($136M) spent this year, and the Texas Rangers ($55.2M) bought their playoff champagne with the extra money the 5th-lowest payroll in baseball afforded them.

And then there's the Minnesota Twins. With a payroll of just over $90 million, the Twins are a perfect example of how a franchise should be run, and in 2010 they secured their 6th AL Central title in the last ten years. Minnesota has put together the right combination of affordable talent year in and year out for a decade, proving that it's not how much money you spend, but how you spend the money.



Since 2001, the Mets have reached the playoffs as many times as Minnesota has finished under .500- once. Yes, the Mets recent record book is quite the contrast to that of the Twins, and I'd say it's time to take a page out of a different book. Perhaps it's time for the Wilpons to re-evaluate how they will allow their front office to operate.
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Newly appointed GM of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Kevin Towers would have been an ideal candidate for the Mets. Having assembled most of the San Diego Padres team that nearly stole the NL West this year, Towers worked with roughly half the budget that Omar Minaya had in New York. Although he was not there to see his work come to fruition, the Padres team that held onto first place until the very last week of the season had Towers' stamp all over it. Now, with Towers gone to Arizona, the Wilpons will have to look elsewhere.

The New York Mets are by no means a small market team. They are going to spend money, we know this. But how about a resolution be a bit more cautious about how and when that money is doled out, while developing a consistency that can change the perception of being those "same old Mets."

The Mets have always been in the colossal shadow of the New York Yankees, and seem to have spent money to show their fans that they can keep up. Clearly, this hasn't worked. Whether or not that has been their motivation is not for me to say, and the Wilpons have never said so either. What they did say on Monday, however, was that they're looking for a GM with a fresh perspective.

Here's a fresh perspective:

Omar Minaya spent each winter making his biggest moves- Pedro, Beltran, Wagner, Delgado, Santana, Putz, K-Rod and Bay were all signed between seasons. Yet, Minaya never pulled the trigger on any major mid-season trades to put the Mets over the top.
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On the other hand, the Philadelphia Phillies have made their biggest moves not just between seasons, but during them as well. The four-time reigning NL East Champs and two-time reigning National League pennant winners have ridden, and will presumably ride, their winter signings to the playoffs- Lidge in '08, Halladay in '10. But it's the players they've traded for mid-season that will help carry them through the playoffs- Cliff Lee in '09, Oswalt in '10.

And it's not just the Phillies, either. Cliff Lee was a trading deadline pawn for the second straight year, and was one of several players the Rangers added in the midst of their playoff surge, along with NL East castoffs Christian Guzman (Nationals), Jorge Cantu (Marlins) and Jeff Francoeur (Mets). The San Francisco Giants revamped their entire outfield, adding Jose Guillen (Royals), Cody Ross (Marlins) and Pat Burrell (Rays) to their roster over the summer. The Braves traded for Derek Lee (Cubs) in August, while the Yankees picked up Lance Berkman (Astros) and Kerry Wood (Indians), who a key cog in their bullpen down the stretch. And those Twins. Minnesota bolstered their bullpen by trading for Matt Capps (Nationals) and Brian Fuentes (Angels). The common thread- all of these teams are in the playoffs, and it's not by accident that they got there.

So, new Mets GM, whoever you will be, please be tactful. You can do a lot in the off-season with $100 million. Just because you have $140 million to work with, that doesn't mean you have to spend it all before April. The Minaya Mets were thin in the wallet come July, and it cost them. If you put the right pieces in place between October and March, not the most expensive, you can make adjustments along the way.

Many, if not most or all teams would kill to have $40 million to play with at the trade deadline. Be that team, the one that instead of waiting for reinforcements to come back from injury to stay afloat, brings in their own reinforcements voluntarily.

Fred, Jeff. Don't ask the GM and Manager to be the source of excitement. Ask them to be the architects for it. If you want to re-energize the fan base, there's only one way to do it, on the field by winning games. Period.