As Angel returns, Mets deal Church

by Mike Trovato

So it looks like Omar Minaya finally got around to reading some blogs after all.

The Mets GM announced late Friday afternoon that the club had traded Ryan Church to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Jeff Francoeur, a swap of right fielders between the division rivals. The deal was made official about an hour before game time, stealing the headlines from Angel Pagan, who was activated from the disabled list after missing five weeks with a strained groin. Pagan cited dehydration from an excess of caffeinated drinks in his diet as a potential cause of the injury...

Alright, I suppose Pagan's return didn't have back-page potential, but even if it did, Omar Minaya exercising the privileges that come with the General Manager title is a much bigger story, and good for him. We were all starting to think he had forgotten some of the minor details his job description actually entailed, you know, like making trades and improving the ball club and things of that nature. Better late than never I suppose. Maybe Omar isn't a spiritual guy; I hope I'm not the only one who sees a slight shred of irony within the transactions made by the Mets on Friday afternoon, getting rid of Church the same day Angel returned. I digress.

The trade for Francoeur is a somewhat curious one, one that makes you scratch your head at first. Church is hitting .280, but has just 2 home runs and 22 RBI. Francoeur isn't exactly having a standout season either, batting .250 with 5 HR and 35 RBI. Truth be told, swapping two right fielders who are putting up no more than average numbers seems questionable, but Omar Minaya is no shallow puddle, and this trade is deeper than the numbers on the surface.

First, there's the issue of age: Church is 30, going on 31 this October, whereas Francoeur turned 25 this offseason. While both are under contract through 2011, Francoeur will be just 27 when his contract expires.

In terms of hitting, the Mets saw a glimpse of Church's potential at the beginning of last season, when he hit above .300 with 10 home runs and 36 RBI before suffering a concussion (pictured left). Church never overcame the ill-effects of the injury, after the Mets medical staff botched how it was handled, and upon his return, he hit just .219 through the remainder of the season.

Jeff Francoeur, on the other hand, has been the definition of durability. Since breaking into the majors in 2005, Francoeur played all 162 games in each of his first two full seasons, 2006 and 2007. He started 155 games in 2008, but the games he missed include a brief period in early July when he was optioned to Triple-A after going 8-for-66 between June 14th and July 3rd. He continued to struggle after being recalled, until heating up a bit and batting .286 in September.

The biggest knock on Francouer is his lack of patience at the plate, reflected by his career .308 on-base percentage. What the Mets are looking for is to discover his monstrous upside, which he flashed a few years back in 2006 and 2007. In his first two full seasons in the bigs, Francoeur put up back-to-back 100+ RBI seasons, averaging 24 home runs.

In addition to his recently untapped power, Francouer brings to the table tremendous defensive talent. He has yet to make an error this season, and had 19 outfield assists in 2007, tied with Alfonso Soriano and Michael Cuddyer for tops in the league. New York will need his arm in the cavernous right field territory at Citi Field, and his sure handedness can only help the Amazins, who are 6th worst in the National League in errors committed.

Francoeur, an Atlanta native, will have to adjust to the New York media, much as Church did graciously, proving to be a class act during his interview following the breaking news. Though he was "shocked" about the trade, Ryan cited no hard feelings between himself and the Mets organization, despite rumors that he and manager Jerry Manuel did not see eye to eye. Church said he hoped that Met fans would cheer him when he returns to Citi Field as an Atlanta Brave next week.

As for the Mets, hopefully the arrival of Francoeur will spark some kind of hitting, who desperately need some kind of production at the plate. Over their last seven games, the Mets have scored a meager 7 runs, and Manuel's troops were shut out for the third time this week on Friday night, this time by Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo. With the loss, the Mets are now 6.5 games behind the division leading Phillies, their largest deficit of the season, with two games remaining before the All-Star break.

While there's no telling how we will look back on this trade, one thing is certain. It's a low-risk, high reward deal, and personally, I'm glad it was done. Yes, Francoeur may have his fair share of golden sombreros, but perhaps, for some reason, the Mets coaches can help correct his impatient habits. Of course it is logical to be a skeptic; if they can't solve the problem they've been having all season, why then would they be able to help Francoeur become Barry Bonds in terms of his eye and discipline at the plate? However, should he successfully harness the power he had in '06 and '07, the Mets will have themselves a very solid situation in right field, one step towards some kind of stability.

Omar Minaya hinted during his press conference that the Mets have a lot more moves to make. How about a pitcher next, Omar? I've been a proponent of testing out the waters in the free agency pool, and the Blue Jays just released former closer B.J. Ryan (left). His numbers this season are poor, but given his upside, it couldn't hurt to sign him, given that J.J. Putz will be sidelined until at least mid-August. At the very least, he would be another left-handed option out of the bullpen along with Pedro Feliciano. By adding Ryan, the Mets would also have themselves another insurance policy for K-Rod. Ryan is a great clubhouse guy, too, as his former Jays teammates noted in commenting on his surprising release.

If you're not interested in picking up a free agent, if it's a trade you're looking to make, I assume Jonathan Sanchez (above center) would have been a fairly easier pickup 24 hours ago, but after pitching a no-hitter against San Diego on Friday, his price likely just jumped up a bit. Still, the Mets starting pitching hasn't quite been what it should be lately; Livan Hernandez has unraveled over his last two starts, Fernando Nieve has thrown in a few stinkers after his 3-0 start, and even Johan Santana hasn't been Johan Santana for a couple months now. Perhaps Sanchez or Seattle's Jarrod Washburn (above right)- who is also on the trading block but ironically just threw a one-hitter on Monday- can be had for a fair price, though Sanchez at age 27 may cost more than Washburn, who turns 35 next month.

There is one other option, one that would cost the Mets nothing at all. That of course, is brining up minor league talent. Nelson Figueroa is having a solid season for Buffalo, and was named to the Triple A All-Star team this week. Figueroa, a journeyman who has pitched for six Major League affiliates, the Independent Long Island Ducks, and has spent time in the Mexican League and Chinese Professional Baseball League. He has been serviceable in his brief stints with the Mets Major League club.

In 14 starts for Buffalo this year, Figueroa is 5-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, along with a 3:1 K:BB ratio (75 strikeouts, 23 walks) over 90 innings. There's also Jon Niese, who is 4-6 for the Bisons with a 4.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, with Figueroa's exact strikeout and walk totals in 81.1 innings pitched. Niese is younger than I am, and won't turn 23 until the offseason, but with the current state of the Mets, it may be worth giving him another look. Should Livan continue to falter and the Mets decide to rearrange their starting rotation, it can't hurt to get Niese some more big league innings under his belt.

Whatever the Mets decide to do, ultimately it's a breath of fresh air to see Omar Minaya finally shaking things up, and even more encouraging to hear that the trade for Jeff Francoeur is the first of several changes to come in the near future.


Thought: What number will Francoeur wear? He wore #7 in Atlanta, but that number belongs to a Mr. Jose Reyes, and Fernando Tatis sports #17...

Prediciton: Francoeur will wear #27 as a Met.

Earth to Omar...

by Mike Trovato

On July 30th, 2006, Mets reliever Duaner Sanchez' season ended when he suffered a separated shoulder in a cab accident. The very next day, Omar Minaya traded outfielder Xavier Nady to the Pittsburgh Pirates to obtain Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez. Hernandez filled the void left by the loss of Sanchez, and the Mets rolled through the remainder of the regular season, falling one game short of the World Series.

The last I checked, the phrase goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Inversely, if my understandingof the laws of logic are correct, if it is broken, do fix it. Makes sense, right? Yes. Unless your name is Omar Minaya.

Now, I've criticized Omar Minaya before, but as much as it pains me, I have no good reason not to be a critic at this juncture. I'm not sure what has changed since 2006, when the Mets GM did fix the broken parts, but apparently Omar has adopted a different interpretation of the phrase this year. Minaya's understanding this season seems to be as follows: "If it's broken, don't fix it. Hell, if it might be broken, let's force the issue and make it worse- just to be sure it really is broken. Once we're sure it's broken, let's wait it out for an indefinite period of time, while doing nothing to fix it."

When Carlos Beltran joined Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado on the DL, Jerry Manuel spent weeks politely but blatantly requesting a bat or two. Now all of a sudden, he has taken a new "stay positive, we can win with what we have" approach. Some have had more than their fill with Jerry, but quite frankly, what is currently taking place with the New York Mets goes far beyond the control of Jerry Manuel.

It's clear that Mets management placed a gag order on Uncle Jerry, which explains why he's changed his tune from a realistic message to one of unwarranted blind faith. At this point, Manuel is forced to choose from slim pickings, but the Mets have sunk so low, it's not even a crap shoot as to which guy will get the big hit on any given night. No, it's much simpler than that. Nobody does.

If there are any criticisms I have of Manuel, they are these: he doesn't get angry enough when it's deserved, and he isn't consistent with his lineup. While I understand his theory of going with the hot hand, at this point, everyone is so cold that the best medicine for this team may be consistency over opportunity.

Jerry Manuel can't make David Wright find his groove. Manuel can't make the team collect hits and score runs. Manuel can't make Major League ballplayers play fundamentally sound baseball. Granted, some of the kids the Mets are putting on the field aren't major league ready, but when catching a thrown ball or running the bases- baseball 101, or so I thought- aren't even a given, something needs to be done.

If I were Jerry Manuel, I would stick with one lineup rather than pulling names out of a hat on a game-to-game basis. Until Angel Pagan returns- and never before have I ever been so excited to have Angel Pagan coming back- play Murph, Church and Sheff across the outfield, Wright, Cora, Castillo and Tatis around the horn. Once Pagan is activated, Sheff, Pagan and Church across the outfield, and slide Murphy to first if you please. But none of this Nick Evans in left field business. None of this Fernando Tatis batting cleanup, and no Alex Cora leading off. Luis Castillo is your leadoff hitter sans Reyes, stick to it.

This is probably the most I've criticized Jerry Manuel, and while it may seem like I'm being biased towards him because I like him, reality is such that not even the greatest managers of all-time would be able to make much out of the fodder that is the New York Mets current active roster. The void of capable relief in the Mets farm system becomes exponentially apparent by the injury, and that responsibility falls on the shoulders of General Manager Omar Minaya.

According to MLB.com, Minaya stated Tuesday, "There's not a trade out there that's better than when we get our guys back... I'm not going to get a shortstop that's better than Jose Reyes." True. And if they were coming back in a week, after the All-Star game, that would be one thing. But Minaya himself said Reyes and Beltran are still out indefinitely, and that Delgado is looking at a mid-August return at best. Originally the goal was to make it to the break, but no one is coming back to help before the break, besides Oliver Perez... which pretty much means no one is coming back to help before the break. But hey, maybe Ollie will surprise us all, who knows?

Sarcasm aside, let's scrap the Mets "tread water" philosophy, and go with a more realistic scenario. In the 15 games they have played without their three stars since Beltran went down, the Mets are 5-10, a 33% winning rate. For argument's sake, let's say all three come back on August 15th, the second of four games against the San Francisco Giants. There are 33 games between now and then; should they keep this pace up until the hypothetical simultaneous return Delgado, Reyes and Beltran on August 15th, the big three would return to a Mets team whose record would be 50-65 with 47 games remaining. At 50-65, to achieve a .500 record, the Mets would need to win at about a 67% clip by posting a 31-16 record down the stretch.

Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL wildcard spot with a 90-72 tally. Assuming 90 wins is the bar for a playoff berth, the Mets would need to go win 40 of their final 47 games, 85%, to reach that plateau. Obviously, there is no way of knowing that the current Mets will continue to win at a 33% rate without their three big stars. They could be better. They could be worse, albeit barely. What we do know, however, is that while it's 4.5 games separating the Mets and Phillies today, this team does not appear capable of achieving its goal of "surviving" anything, or treading any water, and especially not the water that is the melting ice in their plethora of injury tubs.

This is a team that went into coast mode a few weeks too early two years ago, and never, ever recovered. This is not a team that has a recent history of late-season comebacks, and with the hole they're digging themselves now, the chances of climbing out of a larger trench with a month and a half remaining are slim to none.

This Mets team continues to find ways to lose and fails to score runs- they're now averaging .75 runs over their last four games. The ship continues to sink, the manager continues to offer empty words of hope. The Philadelphia Phillies brass are talking about acquiring Roy Halladay from Toronto and signing free agent and ex-Met Pedro Martinez.

I'm not saying to go get a pitcher, because honestly, no pitcher can win with less than one run of support. But while the division rivals are looking to strengthen their squad through trades and free agency, Omar Minaya continues to stand firmly entrenched on the quicksand that appears to be the New York Mets' 2009 season, without making one single move.

Omar, this team is broken. Please, at least try to fix it.