Last week, I had some reservations about picking the Jets to beat Houston: Mark Sanchez- how would he handle the spotlight in his first career NFL start, and further, who would he throw to? Rex Ryan- was his success with the Ravens a product of the personnel, or a credit to his defensive schemes? Could the Jets revamped defense stop the supposedly high-octane Houston offense?
After watching Gang Green manhandle the Texans 24-7 last week, I felt almost felt foolish for having flip-flopping so many times, and for as long as I did. The Jets dominated from beginning to end, holding the ball for 38:46, two-thirds of the game. Mark Sanchez made Broadway Joe proud, posting an 84.3 passer rating on 272 yards passing. On third down plays the rookie was golden, completing 12 of 15 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown.
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On the other side of the ball, Gang Green's defensive front stifled the Texans, which was held to just 183 net yards. Granted, Houston was without their #2 wideout Kevin Walter, who with his reliable hands and solid blocking is an asset in both the passing and running game. Nonetheless, Pro Bowler Andre Johnson was held to just 4 receptions for 35 yards, and Steve Slaton had a lackluster start to his sophomore campaign, contributing a mere 17 rushing yards- 52 total- to the Houston offense.It is becoming increasingly apparent that Mark Sanchez doesn't buckle under pressure, and I can't say that I'm all that surprised. After all, he did play at USC, making him no stranger to big games and high pressure situations. Marky Mark seems to be equipped with the mental and physical tools to succeed in the NFL. Rex Ryan has the qualities of a defensive mastermind, and he doesn't seem to need Ray Lewis to create a monstrous defensive product.
For the many Jets fans who would have been happy to just get a win in week one, after such a decisive and impressive victory, many now feel more than confident that those questions that were present after the preseason can be put to rest. And, for the most part, I am one of them. There is, however, one thing stopping me from doing so just yet.
The Jets will host the New England Patriots this weekend. Don't get me wrong, I loved what I saw from the Jets in week one. Absolutely loved it. A defense that was equipped with some monsters last season (Jenkins, Ellis and Pace) added more firepower (Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard), and they played a beastly game on Sunday, battering Matt Schaub around like a rag doll. I love what Mark Sanchez has brought to the table thus far; he's got the guts and smarts to make the big plays and the physical talent to back it up.
But let's get one thing straight. Tom Brady isn't Matt Schaub. Bill Belichick is the defensive mastermind. And above all else, the bottom line is that the New England Patriots will not, will not be intimidated by anybody, period. So, what does this translate to for the Jets in Week 2?
Week 2- September 20th, 2009
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
The Patriots have more or less owned the Jets since Belichick snubbed the franchise after one day as head coach in 2000. New England has gone 12-6 against the Jets since 2000; 12-3 since Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe as the starter in 2001. Frankly, the rivalry between these two franchises has been well documented by countless outlets; I myself covered the rivalry last year as a journalist for the Hofstra Chronicle.
Now the rivalry enters a new chapter, the Rex Ryan era. Just as the Patriots will not be intimidated, neither will the Jets if Ryan has something to say about it. And does he ever. As the new head coach has stated several times, the dawning of the Ryan era means that these Jets have every intention to do the pushing. Under Ryan, the Jets will be the intimidators, not the intimidated. That being said, this Sunday's contest has "huge" written all over it, a matchup between the veteran heavyweight Belichick and the new tough guy in the division.
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Following a shaky performance against Buffalo, New England clearly has some holes, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. The absence of Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison was very obvious. Magnified by the injury to Defensive Rookie of the Year linebacker Jerod Mayo, the Pats D looked sluggish and vulnerable against the Bills' no-huddle offense. Mayo, who racked up 124 total tackles including 20 in the 34-31 overtime loss to the Jets last season, has a sprained MCL and will likely miss at least one month.Still, as much as I hate to admit it, Belichick's genius cannot be discredited, and while expectations may be tempered somewhat, by no means am I banking on Jets will running up the score and breezing by the Patriots defense. This should be one of the most cerebral football games you will witness, and the outcome will rest as much upon the mental adjustments as it will physical execution.
Key Matchup: Bill Belichick vs. Brian Schottenheimer/Mark Sanchez
Strange, maybe. But like Rex Ryan is trying to prove, Belichick has proven time and time again that his defense is less about the name or number on the jerseys as it is in discipline and execution. Let's not forget that in 2004, the Patriots spent much of the season- and won the Super Bowl no less- with wide receiver Troy Brown filling in at cornerback.
The Patriots are all about execution, and no doubt their defense this weekend will be a constantly changing puzzle that Mark Sanchez will need to solve repeatedly, on the fly. That means that Brian Schottenheimer will need to make the right play calls, quick plays that will throw the defense off guard while still allowing Sanchez to identify and adjust to his reads. Sanchez is confident, talented and smart; how good is he at chess? Because this will be a chess match. If Schotty makes the right calls and Marky responds well, the Jets will have a very good shot at a win.
Key Matchup: Field Position/Special Teams
In a chess match type of game like this one, field position will be huge. Neither team's defense will cut the opponent any slack, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the punters get into the action on Sunday. This makes Leon Washington a huge factor, as well as the Pats return tandem of Maroney, Faulk and Welker, whoever winds up with the ST touches. Given Brady's track record, this aspect of the game will be of greater importance to the Jets.
Prediction: Another tough call here, because I could see the Pats winning by 7+ just as easily as I could and would love to see the Jets do the same to New England. I also realize that in my last post, I notched this week's game as an L, but Gang Green exceeded my expectations in Houston last week, and this is the home opener. Despite all the trash talking the Jets have been doing, knowing that both teams want to embarrass each other, I think this will come down to the wire.
Final- Patriots 17, Jets 16
Too specific to predict: The Jets turn this into a 22-17 victory. No extra point on the Jets' game winning TD drive as time expires. Solid day for running backs, Thomas Jones gets the first score, while Sanchez caps a quiet day 20-38ish, going 0 TD 0 INT until the game winner. Imagine if that plays out to be true...
Fantastical situations aside, the Jets defense will welcome back Shaun Ellis from a one game suspension, so I don't foresee an offensive explosion on either end. In Week 13 of the Patriots undefeated 2007 season, it was Rex Ryan's Ravens that nearly handed New England loss number one, holding them under 30 points for just the second time that year. Therefore, as Ryan's defensive units have done in the past, I expect them to put Tom Brady under heavy pressure.
Typically, a week 2 win would not define a team's season, but this contest is a landmark game for the 2009 New York Jets. Given the magnitude and implications of the game, a Jet win would solidify them as a legitimate contender- not to mention an uppercut to Tom Brady's chiseled jaw. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the potential positive outcomes of this game are so much greater than the possible negatives, even in a loss. Unless New England flat out destroys Gang Green, I don't see a loss being a crippling blow. Win or lose, I think the Jets will hang tough and give the Patriots a hell of a fight, which will only make them stronger as the season rolls on.
