Week 10 Preview: Jets vs. Jaguars

by Mike Trovato

Week 10- November 15th, 2009
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) vs. New York Jets (4-4)
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ







The New York Jets will kick off the second half of the season a bit healthier than they were at the end of the first half of it.

Coming off of their second defeat at the hands of the division rival Miami Dolphins, Rex Ryan gave the troops the entire week off leading up to last week's bye. The extra rest could be beneficial to a Jets squad that has been a bit banged up; Jerricho Cotchery, the team's leading receiver, should finally be close to 100% after missing 2 games and part of another. Cotchery will start opposite from Braylon Edwards, and for the first time since the Jets traded for Edwards one month ago, Mark Sanchez should have the services of his top 2 wideouts for a full game .

The 4-4 Jets host the 4-4 Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup that figures to be a confusing pick, to say the least. The Jags have been about as inconsistent as any team in the league, having defeated the Houston Texans while also falling 41-0 to the Seattle Seahawks and 30-13 to the then Tennessee Titans, who were 0-6 at the time. Which Jags team will show up will be the big question here.
http://forum.jaguars.com/index.php?autocom=gallery&req=si&img=5607
Maurice Jones-Drew (left) leads all NFL running backs with 11 touchdowns on the ground, and is 6th in the league in yardage with 737. However, Thomas Jones is no slouch either, just 33 yards behind Jones-Drew, and has 7 rushing TD's of his own. Both the Jaguars and Jets have stood up to the run, having allowed 5 and 4 scores on the ground respectively through the halfway point of the season. That being said, the outcome of this game may very well be determined by the arms of the quarterbacks.

Mark Sanchez has regressed after becoming the first rookie ever to start the season 3-0, and has just 4 touchdown passes to 8 interceptions in five games since the undefeated start. Yet, Sanchez has played turnover-free football in two consecutive games following his 5-pick Week 6 performance against the Buffalo Bills. As for David Garrard, he has just one touchdown pass over his last four games, though despite 6 turnovers by their QB, Jacksonville managed to go 2-2 in that span.

Ultimately, as tough as it is to figure out the Jaguars, the Jets have been just as puzzling. Here are some interesting numbers on both teams: The Jets 4 wins are against opponents with a combined record of 15-18. Jacksonville has beaten teams with a combined record of 18-14, while their losses have come at the hands of teams with a combined record of 9-24. The Jets have been beaten by teams with a combined record of 17-15.

New York has proven that not playing well in one facet of the game is enough to cost them. Mark Sanchez wasted two solid defensive performances, gift wrapping games against the Saints and Bills. The defense coughed up a victory at Miami, allowing Ronnie Brown to slip through the cracks in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. In the last meeting between the Jets and Dolphins, the defense allowed just 104 yards, but Ted Ginn, Jr. made a mockery of Mike Westhoff's usually stellar special team unit. Ginn returned back-to-back kickoffs for touchdowns en route to 299 return yards.

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/15428

As unclear as the future is for these teams, one thing that is clear is that both can flat out run the ball. Jacksonville's 13 scores on the ground are second best in the NFL. The Jets, on the other hand, are running away from the competition, literally, as their 177.6 rushing yards per contest is 16.6 yards per game better than the second ranked Titans. The next closest margin is 9.9 yards per game, the difference separating the 31st ranked Cardinals running game (79.5) from the league-worst Chargers (69.6).

Prediction: Given everything mentioned above, it's tough to pick a winner here. The success of the running games of both teams will challenge their stout rushing defenses, which have given up a mere 9 TD combined. That being said, the key to this game could very well be through the air.
http://forum.jaguars.com/index.php?autocom=gallery&req=si&img=5596
Mike Sims-Walker (left) has benefited from the presence of veteran receiver Torry Holt. Sims-Walker's 36 receptions, 554 yards and 4 TD catches leads the Jags in all three categories. As much as his success is a plus for the Jags, it is concerning that he has accounted for two-thirds of David Garrard's touchdown passes. Marcedes Lewis (2 TD) is the only other player with a touchdown reception for Jacksonville. Maurice Jones-Drew can only do so much, and should see less running room than he's used to. That being said, the Jaguars receivers may need to break their relatively unproductive trend, and some other wideout must step up. Torry Holt, that's your cue.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/15437
As for the Jets, they are healthier than they have been in weeks, which could have Mark Sanchez a little bit overanxious. The rookie will need to turn in his third turnover-free game, and he has the weapons to do so. Dustin Keller (right) finally woke up, compiling 76 yards and a touchdown while matching a career high with 8 receptions in Week 8. Don't be surprised if Keller finds the end zone again. Likewise, don't be surprised if Mark Sanchez puts up his first career 3-touchdown game.

Jets 34, Jaguars 24