MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series

by Mike Trovato

On the eve of the Major League Baseball playoffs (and by the time this post goes up, it won't be the eve any more), I figure it's only appropriate to make some predictions. So, here it goes...

American League Division Series

Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

Texas Rangers
The revival of Vladamir Guerrero's career, along with Rangers' slugging center fielder Josh Hamilton helped Texas ran away with the AL West. Despite a streaky September in which the Rangers compiled a 5-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in succession, Texas still finished 9 games ahead of second place Oakland. Hamilton missed a month of action before making his return to the lineup for the final regular season series, going 3-for-11 with a home run and 3 RBI, his 100th of the season. Hamilton finished the year with a ML-best .359 average, never dipping below .340 after July 4th.

Key Mid-season Acquisitions: SP Cliff Lee, C Bengie Molina, RF Jeff Francoeur, IF/OF Christian Guzman, IF Jorge Cantu

Tampa Bay Rays
Overview: Fueled by the arm of Cy Young candidate David Price, the Rays take the American League's best record into this year's postseason despite backing their way into the AL East title over the Yankees. Tampa Bay finished 13-14 over their final 27 games, averaging a mere 2.0 runs over their last 8 contests. Third Baseman Evan Longoria, the Rays leader in doubles, RBI and OPS, has msised the final 10 games with a quad injury, and will not be at full strength for the ALDS opener.

Mid-season Acquisitions: RP Chad Qualls, OF Brad Hawpe

Head-to-Head in 2010: Tampa won the season series between the two clubs 4-2, outscoring Texas 24-11 in their 3 game sweep of the Rangers back in August. Matt Garza racked up wins in both series, logging 14 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP over 12.2 total innings.

Prediction: The Rangers can hit, and led all of baseball with a .276 team Batting Average. If their pitching comes through, the Rays and their paltry .247 BA may struggle to produce, especially if Evan Longoria shows signs of rust. With C.J. Wilson's sub-3.00 road ERA and Tampa slated to throw the struggling James Shields in Game 2, the Rangers could find themselves in position to sting the Rays in Arlington, where they were 51-30 on their turf. Yet, I still figure the teams will trade wins, and the series will come down to Cliff Lee and David Price in a Game 5 scenario. Lee has been shaky since joining Texas in July, but his performance in the 2009 postseason makes him a big game lock until proven otherwise, which will be the difference.

Rangers defeat Rays, 3 games to 2

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)

New York Yankees
Overview: C.C. Sabathia finished 2010 at 21-7, tied for the Major League lead in victories. Of course, it doesn't hurt when your offense smashes the third highest home run total in the league. The Bombers slugged 201 dingers, propelling them to the most runs scored (859) of any team in the majors by far. Alex Rodriguez, despite his lowest OBP and SLG output since 1997 and a career low .270 full-season batting average, posted his 13th consecutive 30 HR-100 RBI season. Along with Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, the trio of infielders combined for the most run production of any three teammates in baseball. Curtis Granderson came on strong in September to finish out the year with 24 round-trippers.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Lance Berkman, OF Austin Kearns, RP Kerry Wood...

It's worth nothing that Kerry Wood has been lights out since joining the Yankees at the trading deadline, posting a 0.69 ERA over 26 innings. Wood's 10 holds are the highest among any Yankees reliever since he was acquired from Cleveland.

Minnesota Twins
Overview: The Twins seem to be one of the best franchises top to bottom in all of baseball. Their current starting lineup consists of 5 home-grown players- Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Danny Valencia-, and that doesn't include Justin Morneau, who will miss the entire 2010 postseason. The Twins pitching staff is littered with Twins draftees: Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Alex Burnett, Jesse Crain, Brian Duensing, Jeff Manship, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey. Needless to say, year in and year out, they put a winning product on the field. 2010 was no different, as the Twins were second in baseball in OBP (.341) and triples (41), third in the league in team batting (.273) and doubles (318), and second in the American League in fewest errors committed (78) and fielding percentage (.987). In typical Twins fashion, the whole was greater than the sum of its parts, as Minnesota had a different leader for every major statistical offensive category:

• Runs Scored- Michael Cuddyer (93)
• Batting Average- Joe Mauer (.327)
• Home Runs- Jim Thome (25)
• Runs Batted In- Delmon Young (112)
• Stolen Bases- Denard Span (26)
  

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: CL Matt Capps, RP Brian Fuentes

Head-to-Head in 2010: New York took 2 of 3 in each set between the two clubs this season, despite only outscoring the Twins 24-21 over the six games. In the three games at Target Field, however, Minnesota held the Yankees to just 6 runs, which may be a factor given that the Twins have home field advantage. Andy Pettitte picked up two of the four Yankee victories against Minnesota in May.

Prediction: The Twins finally have the home field advantage in the playoffs for a change, which bodes well for them since they have best home record in baseball (53-28). What does not bode well for them is that they once again drawn their kryptonite, the New York Yankees. The Yankees have knocked Minnesota out of three of their previous four postseason appearances, including a three game sweep in the 2009 ALDS. Minnesota won't get swept again, and their left-handed pitching may throw off the reigning World Champs. Andy Pettitte's health is in question, and could be crucial should the series require a Game 5, but it probably won't go that far. The Twins should be able to pull out a win, but if the Yankees opt to throw Sabathia up 2-1, that will be about all.

Yankees defeat Twins, 3 games to 1


National League Division Series

Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

Cincinnati Reds
Overview: The Reds have fought their way back into the playoffs after a 15 year hiatus. With leadership from Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera and Bronson Arroyo, the Reds have a mix of seasoned veterans to go along with their emerging young core of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Cincinnati has been an offensive jugggernaut, leading ann National League teams in team batting (.271), slugging (.436), OPS (.774), home runs (188) and run production (790). Votto, top-3 in every triple crown category, has been an absolute monster, leading the team in virtually every offensive statistic except triples: 106 runs, 177 hits, 36 doubles, 37 home runs, 113 RBI, 328 total bases, 91 walks, .324 BA, .424 OBP, .600 SLG. He even swiped 16 stolen bases, tying him for second on the team. The question for the Reds lies in their bullpen, where closer Francisco Cordero blew 8 save attempts, and it's possible that Dusty Baker could turn to the flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman and his 105 MPH fastball in save situations.

Philadelphia Phillies
Overview: The Phillies have been the cream of the crop in Major League Baseball over the past three seasons. With a veteran core already full of postseason experience, Philadelphia added not one but two aces (and Roys) to their pitching rotation. Collectively for the Phillies, Halladay and Oswalt compiled a combined 28-11 record, 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10 complete games, 5 shutouts, and one perfect game. All this with Oswalt having been on another team for the first four months of the season. Those numbers make Cole Hamels' 12-11, 3.06, 1.18- respectable numbers indeed- seem like that of a minor league prospect.
With a plethora of injuries to their starting position players, only 5 Phillies appeared in over 120 games. Of their eight opening day starters, only Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez avoided the disabled list. Still, the Phillies operated like a well-oiled machine. On the morning of July 8th, Philadelphia sat in third place, just three games over .500 at 43-40. From that point on, the Phils went 54-25, overcoming what was at its height a 7-game deficit to overtake the National League East for the fourth straight season.

Prediction: The Reds may be a feisty bunch, and have a lot to look forward to going forward. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies are capable of winning a slugfest as well as a pitcher's duel. Philadelphia amassed 21 wins in September, and in those 21 wins, H2O took 13 while the offense pushed 130 runs across home plate. Let's err on the side of logic, given that the Reds will face the most dominant threesome of starting pitching in baseball. Even if Cincy's top-ranked run-producing offense can manage putting some numbers on the board, their pitching will be no match for a Phillies offense that ranked right behind them.

Phillies defeat Reds, 3 games to 1


I should get to the Braves and Giants before the series starts on Friday, but in case I don't, I'll go with the Giants... Stay tuned.