MLB Playoff Picture 2010- American League Championship Series

by Mike Trovato

American League Championship Series

New York Yankees (5-67) vs. Texas Rangers (90-72)

def. MIN 3-0 in ALDS def. TB 3-2 in ALDS

Texas Rangers
For a team known better for its offense during the regular season, the Texas Rangers pitching has been a pleasant surprise during the 2010 postseason thus far. The mid-season acquisition of Cliff Lee was clearly made with October (and November) in mind. As much as he struggled during the second half of the regular season, come October, Lee delivers. Leading a talented staff of young arms, the southpaw continued his postseason dominance in the ALDS, mowing through the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. Lee compiled an incredible 21 strikeouts to no walks (that's right, no walks), to the tune of a 1.14 ERA. Manager Ron Washington will turn to Lee in Game 3, again on the road, as he won both starts in Tampa Bay.

As for the offense, the Rangers clobbered 8 home runs in the first round, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler's 3 apiece, and with little help from their MVP candidate Josh Hamilton. Hamilton clearly showed signs of rust against Tampa Bay, having missed 24 straight games with a rib injury in September. The Rangers were the beneficiary of 5 Rays fielding errors in round one, taking advantage of the miscues with aggressive and alert base running. The Yankees, however, are much better defensively, having made no errors in their sweep of Minnesota. Therefore, Texas will need more production from the bats of Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero and Michael Young if they intend to compete; the talented trio went a combined 10-for-57 (.175 BA) against the Rays in the ALDS.

New York Yankees
The reigning World Champions continued their ownership of the Twins, completing yet another playoff sweep in extending their playoff streak against Minnesota to 9 games. Last year's stars (Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, A-Rod and Swisher) did their job in the ALDS, but it was new Yankees Curtis Granderson and Lance Berkman who stepped up big. In just 11 at-bats, the "Grandy Man" knocked 5 hits and drove in 3 runs, while Berkman went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI, the second of which gave New York the go-ahead run in Game 2.

The Yankees bats did as much to produce runs as their pitching did to prevent them, as the Bombers outscored the Twins 17-7 in the series. Ace C.C. Sabathia actually had the worst outing of the three Yankee starters, surrendering 4 runs in Game 1. Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes tossed 7 innings apiece, Hughes doing so while shutting out the already suffocating Twins offense in the clinching Game 3. The bullpen was just as spectacular, as Kerry Wood allowed the lone run given up by Yankees relief. As usual, Mariano Rivera closed the door for the final two wins.


Analysis
The common perception seems to be that Texas is at a disadvantage before even stepping on the field, as Cliff Lee won't pitch until Game 3. However, the Rangers playoff rotation posted a 1.17 ERA, and although those numbers are somewhat Lee-heavy, neither C.J. Wilson nor Colby Lewis allowed a run in their respective LDS starts. While matching up against Sabathia is no easy task for C.J. Wilson, C.C. wasn't exactly sharp pitching on 7 days rest in Minnesota, and now he will go on 8 days rest to kick off the ALCS. Needless to say, Wilson stands a fighting chance, and if he delivers, the Rangers could very well find themselves up 2-1 after Lee's start on Monday, and heading into a matchup with the erratic A.J. Burnett in Game 4.

Bengie Molina will need to squeeze everything he can out of those young arms with his pitch calling behind the plate. Conversely, the Yankees must strive to reach the Rangers bullpen. Should New York successfully drive the Rangers young starters out of Games 1 and 2 early, that could spell trouble for Texas. The Rangers bullpen performance against Tampa Bay was a stark contrast to that of its starting pitching. In 13.1 innings of work, Texas "relief" was anything but, allowing 21 base runners (16 hits, 5 walks), of which 8 crossed home plate, for a bloated 5.27 ERA.

Texas must get on base at a much higher rate, as the Yankees team batting average (.314) was higher than the Rangers team on-base percentage (.286) in round one. Given New York's flawless defense, getting on base by their own production is a must for Texas. The Rangers offense will be their best defense, and the longer they can hold off from using their bullpen, the better.

Prediction
The Rangers are certainly capable of putting up a fight, and with A.J. Burnett going in Game 4, Game 1 could prove pivotal, because the last thing the Yankees want is for this series to go 7, where they would likely draw Cliff Lee. Still, if there's one thing the Yankees do well, it's running up the pitch counts, which easily could be the difference maker in the outcome in this series. Wilson, Lewis and Tommy Hunter all surpassed their previous innings pitched totals this season, and Wilson (+137.0 IP) and Lewis (+79.0 IP) shattered their previous single-season highs. That said, Ron Washington may very well be forced to rely on a bullpen that blew up against a scuffling Rays lineup that in no way matches the potency of the lineup Joe Girardi will field.

Yankees defeat Rangers, 4 games to 2