Perez falls out of Mets' rotation; Pelfrey and Maine to pick up slack

by Mike Trovato

As the adage goes, hindsight is 20/20. But even before 2009 the season began, Mets fans questioned whether shelling out $36 million to make Oliver Perez a Met through 2011 was the right decision. The reality the Mets face now is one of a sub-.500 record, a general manager skating on steadily thinning ice, and a 40 year-old rookie filling the 5th spot in the rotation while their 36 million dollar man sits at the tail end of their revamped bullpen.

On October 19th, 2006, Oliver Perez pitched in the biggest game of his life. Acquired from Pittsburgh as an add-on to the trade that sent Xavier Nady to the Pirates for Roberto Hernandez, the New York Mets called upon Perez to start against the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Mets, in blind faith, had simply hoped he would give them a chance. Instead, Perez gave them one of the best performances of his career.

Ollie scattered just 4 hits over 6 strong innings of work. He allowed just one run, striking out four and walking two while hurling 61 of his 88 pitches for strikes. At the time, Perez' outing was viewed as a huge positive, and rightfully so. But in some twisted way, perhaps that one performance was, over the long term, more of a curse than a blessing.

There were several things that came out of that fateful Game 7. Despite the solid effort, the Mets still lost to the Cardinals, falling one game short of reaching the World Series. In very basic terms, for what it's worth, the performance by Perez ultimately didn't impact 2006 at all. What it did do, however, was beguile Mets brass into thinking that Perez could be the left-hander whose upside- if fulfilled- could erase the regret of dealing Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay (then Devil) Rays.

The success of Oliver Perez throughout his career has been somewhat of an anomaly. His best year came with the Pirates in 2004, when he struck out 239 batters and logged a stellar 2.99 ERA. However, he has yet to come within 59 strikeouts of that output in any subsequent season. Before the 2006 NLCS, Perez went 3-13 with a 6.55 ERA over 22 starts between Pittsburgh and New York. He was an absolute long shot to do anything positive in that Game 7; instead, he pitched like Pedro Martinez. The Wilpons rewarded Perez with a contract after the '06 season, and Ollie has been a mainstay in the Mets rotation ever since.

Perez responded to his new contract by winning 15 games in 2007, but regressed last year, going just 10-7 with an ERA well over 4. In September, when it mattered most, he recorded just one victory in six starts with an ERA of 5.79. Opponents hit .260 against him that month, his second worst month of the '08 campaign in that regard. Still, in the midst of a second straight September collapse, the Mets faith in Perez carried over into 2009.

After again falling out of the playoffs on the season's final day, the Mets drastically improved their bullpen this offseason, signing Francisco Rodriguez and trading for J.J. Putz. Yet, Omar Minaya made no other major additions to the rest of the Mets roster. The most significant and controversial of the Mets' inactivity was when Minaya opted to pass on free agent Derek Lowe in favor of re-signing Perez.

With a career 3.74 ERA and a win-loss tally 18 games over .500, Lowe would have been a perfect fit as the #2 starter behind ace Johan Santana. The one knock on Lowe was his age- he will turn 37 next month. But since 2002, the year Perez broke into the majors, Lowe has been unbelievably durable, averaging 33 starts per season. Perez has made 30+ starts just twice over that same span. In the 2004 postseason with the Red Sox, Lowe turned in 3 wins and a minuscule 1.86 ERA en route to Boston's first World Series Championship in 89 years. Perez' postseason experience is limited to just 2 starts ever- both in 2006. Regardless, the Mets did not make the big push for Lowe, allowing him to sign a 4-year, $60 million contract with Atlanta.

So as the Mets have sat and watched Lowe go 3-1 for the division rival Braves through the first month of the season, there is little need to delve into the 2009 version of Oliver Perez, as it is nauseating and ultimately depressing. On the heels of another meltdown this past Saturday, New York has made yet another questionable maneuver with the paradox that is Oliver Perez. Rather than sending him to Triple-A Buffalo, or placing him on the 15-day DL which would allow Perez to regroup before pitching rehab starts in the minor leagues, the Mets announced on Monday that Perez would remain on the big league roster. Perez will be relegated to mop-up duties in relief. Forty year-old Ken Takahashi moves into Perez' place in the rotation, and is slated to start on Friday against Perez' old club, the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Whatever fascination the New York Mets have with Perez can likely be attributed to that fateful NLCS. One game. One game, and what the Mets have done is put way, way, way too much stock in a pitcher whose career record and ERA were 34-53 and 4.80 respectively before October 19th, 2006. Yes, Perez pitched well in 2007, but given his track record, the risk the Mets have taken with Ollie should have ended after his contract expired last October. Now they will have to hope that the rest of their rotation- namely Mike Pelfrey and John Maine- will pull a 180 sooner rather than later.

The good news is that both Maine and Big Pelf have improved over their last two outings, and are a combined 4-0 over their last four starts. Maine has turned in two straight 6 inning performances, giving up just 3 earned runs as his ERA has dropped significantly from 7.47 to 5.21. Pelfrey too has lowered his ERA by over 2 full runs, and is 3-0 on the year despite his struggles. Walks have been a concern for both pitchers: Pelfrey walked four without a strikeout in his last appearance; Maine walked 6 in Monday's win against the Braves. Provided they are stranding those runners on the bases, the walks are something the Mets can deal with as long as they continue to win games.