Earth to Omar...

by Mike Trovato

On July 30th, 2006, Mets reliever Duaner Sanchez' season ended when he suffered a separated shoulder in a cab accident. The very next day, Omar Minaya traded outfielder Xavier Nady to the Pittsburgh Pirates to obtain Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez. Hernandez filled the void left by the loss of Sanchez, and the Mets rolled through the remainder of the regular season, falling one game short of the World Series.

The last I checked, the phrase goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Inversely, if my understandingof the laws of logic are correct, if it is broken, do fix it. Makes sense, right? Yes. Unless your name is Omar Minaya.

Now, I've criticized Omar Minaya before, but as much as it pains me, I have no good reason not to be a critic at this juncture. I'm not sure what has changed since 2006, when the Mets GM did fix the broken parts, but apparently Omar has adopted a different interpretation of the phrase this year. Minaya's understanding this season seems to be as follows: "If it's broken, don't fix it. Hell, if it might be broken, let's force the issue and make it worse- just to be sure it really is broken. Once we're sure it's broken, let's wait it out for an indefinite period of time, while doing nothing to fix it."

When Carlos Beltran joined Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado on the DL, Jerry Manuel spent weeks politely but blatantly requesting a bat or two. Now all of a sudden, he has taken a new "stay positive, we can win with what we have" approach. Some have had more than their fill with Jerry, but quite frankly, what is currently taking place with the New York Mets goes far beyond the control of Jerry Manuel.

It's clear that Mets management placed a gag order on Uncle Jerry, which explains why he's changed his tune from a realistic message to one of unwarranted blind faith. At this point, Manuel is forced to choose from slim pickings, but the Mets have sunk so low, it's not even a crap shoot as to which guy will get the big hit on any given night. No, it's much simpler than that. Nobody does.

If there are any criticisms I have of Manuel, they are these: he doesn't get angry enough when it's deserved, and he isn't consistent with his lineup. While I understand his theory of going with the hot hand, at this point, everyone is so cold that the best medicine for this team may be consistency over opportunity.

Jerry Manuel can't make David Wright find his groove. Manuel can't make the team collect hits and score runs. Manuel can't make Major League ballplayers play fundamentally sound baseball. Granted, some of the kids the Mets are putting on the field aren't major league ready, but when catching a thrown ball or running the bases- baseball 101, or so I thought- aren't even a given, something needs to be done.

If I were Jerry Manuel, I would stick with one lineup rather than pulling names out of a hat on a game-to-game basis. Until Angel Pagan returns- and never before have I ever been so excited to have Angel Pagan coming back- play Murph, Church and Sheff across the outfield, Wright, Cora, Castillo and Tatis around the horn. Once Pagan is activated, Sheff, Pagan and Church across the outfield, and slide Murphy to first if you please. But none of this Nick Evans in left field business. None of this Fernando Tatis batting cleanup, and no Alex Cora leading off. Luis Castillo is your leadoff hitter sans Reyes, stick to it.

This is probably the most I've criticized Jerry Manuel, and while it may seem like I'm being biased towards him because I like him, reality is such that not even the greatest managers of all-time would be able to make much out of the fodder that is the New York Mets current active roster. The void of capable relief in the Mets farm system becomes exponentially apparent by the injury, and that responsibility falls on the shoulders of General Manager Omar Minaya.

According to MLB.com, Minaya stated Tuesday, "There's not a trade out there that's better than when we get our guys back... I'm not going to get a shortstop that's better than Jose Reyes." True. And if they were coming back in a week, after the All-Star game, that would be one thing. But Minaya himself said Reyes and Beltran are still out indefinitely, and that Delgado is looking at a mid-August return at best. Originally the goal was to make it to the break, but no one is coming back to help before the break, besides Oliver Perez... which pretty much means no one is coming back to help before the break. But hey, maybe Ollie will surprise us all, who knows?

Sarcasm aside, let's scrap the Mets "tread water" philosophy, and go with a more realistic scenario. In the 15 games they have played without their three stars since Beltran went down, the Mets are 5-10, a 33% winning rate. For argument's sake, let's say all three come back on August 15th, the second of four games against the San Francisco Giants. There are 33 games between now and then; should they keep this pace up until the hypothetical simultaneous return Delgado, Reyes and Beltran on August 15th, the big three would return to a Mets team whose record would be 50-65 with 47 games remaining. At 50-65, to achieve a .500 record, the Mets would need to win at about a 67% clip by posting a 31-16 record down the stretch.

Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL wildcard spot with a 90-72 tally. Assuming 90 wins is the bar for a playoff berth, the Mets would need to go win 40 of their final 47 games, 85%, to reach that plateau. Obviously, there is no way of knowing that the current Mets will continue to win at a 33% rate without their three big stars. They could be better. They could be worse, albeit barely. What we do know, however, is that while it's 4.5 games separating the Mets and Phillies today, this team does not appear capable of achieving its goal of "surviving" anything, or treading any water, and especially not the water that is the melting ice in their plethora of injury tubs.

This is a team that went into coast mode a few weeks too early two years ago, and never, ever recovered. This is not a team that has a recent history of late-season comebacks, and with the hole they're digging themselves now, the chances of climbing out of a larger trench with a month and a half remaining are slim to none.

This Mets team continues to find ways to lose and fails to score runs- they're now averaging .75 runs over their last four games. The ship continues to sink, the manager continues to offer empty words of hope. The Philadelphia Phillies brass are talking about acquiring Roy Halladay from Toronto and signing free agent and ex-Met Pedro Martinez.

I'm not saying to go get a pitcher, because honestly, no pitcher can win with less than one run of support. But while the division rivals are looking to strengthen their squad through trades and free agency, Omar Minaya continues to stand firmly entrenched on the quicksand that appears to be the New York Mets' 2009 season, without making one single move.

Omar, this team is broken. Please, at least try to fix it.