When the Jets Come Marching In

by Mike Trovato

Week 4- October 4th, 2009
New York Jets (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0)
Louisiana Superdome






When the 2009 football season began just a few weeks ago, very few outside of the organization envisioned the New York Jets heading into New Orleans undefeated. I'll admit, I was not one of the 3-0 believers. 2-1, sure, although not many even gave them that. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining, not in the slightest way. That being said, the Superdome is now the stage for the only contest between 3-0 teams this Sunday.

http://www.neworleanssaints.com/Home/Multimedia/Photo%20Galleries.aspx?year=2009&month=9

The Jets' 3-0 start is as pleasant a surprise as any Jets fan could have hoped for, but on the road, the Saints will be the Jets biggest challenge thus far this season. In a matchup pitting strength versus strength, New Orleans' #1 offense, led by QB Drew Brees, will go against a vicious Jets defense that ranks #2 in points allowed, #3 in total yards, and top 10 against both the run and the pass.

Drew Brees (right), after posting astronomical QB ratings en route to 669 yards and 9 touchdown passes in weeks 1 and 2, came back down to earth, being held scoreless in week 3. Brees had connected with 8 and9 different receivers against the Lions and Eagles, respectively. Against the Bills, he hit just four different targets. But let's get one thing straight, the Bills did not shut down Drew Brees, the Saints success running the ball did, as all three of the Saints TD's came on the ground.

Pierre Thomas accounted for two of those scores returning from a knee injury to run for 126 yards on just 14 carries, helping the Saints pound the Bills to the tune of 5.8 yards per carry. With Mike Bell banged up and Thomas looking healthy, the Jets should see a heavy dose of both Thomas and Reggie Bush. Bush's 4.9 yards per carry last week was his highest average since he ran for 5 YPC against the Bears in week 15 last season.

As for the Jets, their defense has stacked up well against both the pass and the run, yielding 173.3 YPG (6th) through the air and 82.7 YPG (9th) on the ground. The Saints actually have allowed less rushing yards than the Jets, but that's likely a function of the Saints' opponents trying to catch up.

Key Matchup: WR Devery Henderson vs. CB Dwight Lowery
http://www.neworleanssaints.com/Home/Multimedia/Photo%20Galleries.aspx?year=2009&month=9
With Lito Sheppard (quad) and Donald Strickland (ankle) both out nursing injuries, Dwight Lowery will line up opposite Darrelle Revis in the Jets secondary. Revis will be shadowing Brees' top pass catcher (14 rec, 3 TD), my fellow Hofstra alum Marques Colston, shifting some focus to Devery Henderson.

Henderson (above left) is 3rd on the Saints in receptions (11), but as their deep threat is first in yardage (214). His numbers have declined steadily over the first three games, accumulating nearly half of those receptions and yards and his only touchdown against the Lions (5 rec 103 yds, TD) in the season opener. Still, with his blazing speed, Henderson is always a threat, and could break out against Lowery.

Key Statistic: Time of Possession
Through the first three games this season, the Jets and Saints have had possession of the ball virtually exactly the same amount of time; Gang Green edges out New Orleans by 1 second per game, 33:31 to 33:30. However, the Saints have trailed for a total of 0 seconds this season. That's right. The New Orleans Saints have been tied or ahead every second of this 2009 season. They have yet to trail. That being said, if the Jets can jump out to an early lead like they did last week against the Titans, time of possession will be huge. Despite their elite D, the Jets can't sit back and throw it into cruise control with a lead against the multi-faceted attack of the Saints offense.

Saints Wildcard: RB Reggie Bush
Throughout his career, Reggie Bush has been significantly better at home and in one-sided games, specifically when it comes to finding the end zone. In 20 home games, Bush has scored 18 touchdowns (9 rushing, 6 receiving, 3 punt returns), as opposed to just 7 scores in 21 games on the road. The Saints are 22-19 when Bush plays, and in wins, the former Trojan has twice as many offensive touchdowns (14) than he does in losses (7). Though he has never faced the Jets, Bush did face a Rex Ryan defense back in 2006, and did not fare well, accumulating a mere 21 yards on 9 total touches. This is a home game for New Orleans, so the Jets need to be on high Reggie alert.

Jets Wildcard/Fantasy Play of the Week: TE Dustin Keller
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/photos
I fully expect the Saints to have their eyes on the likes of Jerricho Cotchery and Leon Washington; honestly, that's not much of a stretch. With time of possession being key, I'm looking for Dustin Keller to play a big role in helping the Jets move the chains and extend drives. The Saints gave up 8 receptions and 104 yards to Eagles tight end Brent Celek in week 2; I expect Keller to put up similar numbers. Don't expect regular fantasy predictions here, but this week seems like a solid green light for Keller's fantasy football owners.

Predictions:
It seems tough calls are the trend on a week-to-week basis, though I suppose that's to be expected in the NFL. Drew Brees holds up well under pressure, and has enough weapons to spread the ball around, and more importantly, spread out the Jets defense, which showed some holes for the first time all season in the second quarter last week against Tennessee. My original preseason prediction was that the Saints would win this game, but another Jet victory would not be the least bit shocking. Brees was knocked around by Rex Ryan's defense in 2006, being picked off 3 times despite 3 TD and 383 yards.

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/photos

The Jets need to come out and knock the Saints backwards in the first two possessions and control the clock for 60 percent (36 minutes) of the game. They are capable of doing so, but their best bet is not to get involved in a shootout. I don't think this will be the case, and as we saw against the Titans, the Jets defense will buckle down and keep them in the game. Pierre Thomas won't find anywhere close to the rushing room he saw against Buffalo, and I believe a trip or two into Bart Scott over the middle will make Reggie Bush think twice, meaning Drew Brees will have to carry the load. Of course he's capable of doing so, but the Jets will make him work for his 300 passing yards.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense has improved, but having put up its numbers against the Lions, Eagles and Bills, it doesn't exactly scare me, and I'm sure it won't scare Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones and the Jets. I anticipate Jones scoring one of at least two Gang Green rushing touchdowns, and Sanchez throwing for another two. Regardless of my pick, both teams will have their hands full, and we'll worry about the lingering effects of this matchup for next week; this game has the potential to be a classic down to the wire. I haven't switched a pick yet from my preseason writeup, but the loss I had penciled in for this week was before we all witnessed the beastliness of this Gang Green D. Jets fans, this is my first flip-flop, so enjoy.
Jets 34, Saints 28