Week 7 Preview: New York Jets at Oakland Raiders

by Mike Trovato

Week 7- October 25th, 2009
New York Jets (3-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA






Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets cannot wait for October to end. Month two of the rookie QB's season has unfolded very differently than month one, and as Sanchez' numbers have gone, so have the Jets.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-6-at-NY-Jets/88e29149-306d-4e92-ab84-1cab45d07c38
In leading New York to an unblemished 3-0 September, Sanchez completed 49 of 83 passes (59 percent) for 606 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 87.7. He even added a gutsy touchdown run to his early season success back in Week 3. October has been a completely different story, putting an abrupt end to the storybook first chapter of the kid's brief NFL career. This month, Sanchez has been responsible for just one touchdown, while 10 percent of Sanchez' throws have been intercepted (8 picks in 80 attempts)- 5 last week against Buffalo.

It's never good when the opponent's defense catches half the amount of passes as your offense hauls in from your quarterback, but that's exactly what happened; 5 Sanchez landed in the hands of the Bills, while Jets receivers managed just 10 receptions. With that, number 6 doubled his interception total on the season to 10, en route to a JaMarcus Russell-esque completion percentage of 34.5 with a minuscule 8.3 QB rating.

Speaking of JaMarcus Russell, the Raiders signal caller has had more than his share of setbacks this year, but while Sanchez was stinking up the joint last weekend, Russell's season-best 224 yards on 17 of 28 passing looks solid by comparison. OK, so it's not really solid, but the only stat that matters is what shows up in the win column. In that regard, Russell succeeded, leading Oakland to a victory that would knock me out of my King of the Hill pool and cost me thousands of dollars.
http://www.raiders.com/media-vault/photo-gallery/Raiders-vs-Eagles/18995d7f-ecbe-4aa8-b487-5b20cb64289b
Bitterness aside, this week's Jets-Raiders contest may be closer than people on the east coast would like to admit. The Jets have officially slid from bandwagon Super Bowl Champs to a reeling middle of the road team with two divisional losses and a rookie QB with the second-worst quarterback rating of any player that has started every game this season. An ironic and minimal plus for Gang Green and Mark Sanchez is that there is one QB with as many starts and a worse passer rating: JaMarcus Russell (right).

Needless to say, this game is not likely to be a shootout, and for that reason the Jets should have an edge, at least on paper. New York leads the NFL with 978 rushing yards, one-third of which was accounted for with last week's 318 yard total. That stat, along with the fact that Buffalo lost its starting QB halfway through the second quarter further magnifies just how bad the loss to the Bills really was. Every third quarter possession for the Jets resulted in a turnover, leading to 10 unanswered Bills points to tie the game at 13-13. Had they not turned the ball over 6 times, what culminated in a 3-point overtime loss could very well have been a 10-point win. Not to mention, if Ben Hartsock had kept his hands to himself rather than committing a holding penalty that ultimately took the Jets out of what would have been game-winning field goal range... But a loss is a loss, right?

The silver lining here is that the formula for victory for Rex Ryan's Jets squad has become crystal clear- play a complete football game. The bad news of course is that the same kid that was just one month ago the football king of New York has morphed back into just that- a kid. Granted, I only have four months and five days on Mark Sanchez, but the growing pains that surprisingly eluded him against the Texans, Patriots and Titans caught up to him twofold against the Saints, Dolphins and Bills.

Oakland has historically given the Jets trouble, having won 20 and tied 2 of the 36 regular season contests between the two franchises, as well as ousting New York from the playoffs in consecutive seasons back in 2001 and 2002. The two former AFL teams faced off in Oakland during week 7 last season, and the Jets suffered the exact same result as last week- a 16-13 overtime loss. The challenge for Mark Sanchez will to be not to perform as Brett Favre did last season, throwing 2 interceptions with zero touchdowns on 21 of 38 attempts.

"The Black Hole" as it is called, is an opposing player's hell, essentially Halloween eight times a year. While the fans will certainly not be welcoming, perhaps Sanchez will feel somewhat more at home, being back in southern California where he played his college ball. It's a stretch, but perhaps this week will be a turning point for the former Trojan.

The bottom line is, a game that earlier this season seemed to be nothing more than a "trap" game has now become a must-win for the 3-3 Jets. Sanchez will be without two of his targets again this week, as Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) and Brad Smith (quadriceps) will both be inactive. With Braylon Edwards facing coverage from Nnamdi Asomugha, Dustin Keller and David Clowney will need to step up in the passing game.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14849
On the other side of the ball, the pressure continues to mount as well. Not only will the defense have to worry about picking up the slack for the turnovers by the offense, but now they will have to do so without Pro Bowl Defensive Tackle Kris Jenkins (left), who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The loss of the 6'4," 360 pound D-tackle will put Rex Ryan's creativity to the test as the Jets will try to fill the massive void with the likes of Sione Pouha and Howard Green.

Pouha, now in his fourth year out of Utah, actually played well after Jenkins went down last week, contributing 5 solo tackles (9 total) off the bench. Pouha will now be forced to step up even more against an Oakland offense that is far from intimidating in either facet, running or passing. The Raiders' 88.5 rushing yards per game is not helped by their anemic passing attack, which at 125.3 yards per game is by far the worst in the NFL, though the Jets' 155.7 yards through the air is not much better.

Jets Key Stat of the Game: Rush-Pass Ratio
With Mark Sanchez struggling immensely, the Jets will need to keep the pressure off of him. Oakland's pass rush is nothing to scoff at, tied for 6th best with 15 sacks this season. However, the Raiders' run defense is 5th worst in the league, allowing 145.3 yards per contest on the ground. I'm no expert, but with three healthy backs, the Jets would be wise to finally deploy Shonn Greene (right) in a more expanded role.
http://hawkfantasysports.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/shonn-greene-1.jpg
I don't care if they go 3-and-out in each of their first few possessions, the key to winning is wearing down the defensive line to ultimately buy Mark Sanchez the time to make the smarter decisions if and when he is forced to make them. To do this, the Jets must neutralize veteran defensive ends Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis, who have four sacks apiece. The longer Sanchez holds on to the rock, the worse the outcome seems to be (see: fumble in own end zone at New Orleans Week 4.) The name of the game now becomes getting rid of the ball quickly, which means a lot of screens, a lot of quick slants and outs (Dustin Keller, where are you?), and a massive, massive overdose of hand offs.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14814
It may not sound sexy, and it may not be hugely effective early, but Brian Schottenheimer would be mad not to call a running play 7 out of 10 times in this contest. I'm talking a 20-15-10 Jones-Greene-Washington split, with Washington getting additional touches in an abridged passing game. For good measure, get Danny Woodhead in the mix. Woodhead (left) tore it up in the preseason, and although he was brought back as a wide receiver new number and all, let's not fool ourselves- whether it's out of the backfield or in the slot, he does have talent, talent that should be utilized immediately.

Prediction:
This game has ugly written all over it. I still have too much blind faith to give up on the Jets just yet, but after another stinker last week and the Raiders' upset victory over Philly, I'm concerned. The belief that they'll pull this one out is as much of an indictment of the Raiders offense as it is an endorsement of New York's. While the Raiders do have Michael Bush, Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, their passing game does not command much respect despite JaMarcus Russell's big arm, and it has limited the potential of their backs. Provided they keep that big arm of Russell's in check and reduce him to the mistake-prone quarterback he's been thus far while reducing their own QB mistakes, the Jets should snap their 3-game losing streak.
Jets 17, Raiders 15