Week 6 Preview: Jets vs. Bills

by Mike Trovato

Week 6- October 18th, 2009
Buffalo Bills (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2)
Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ







At the beginning of the season, many of their fans would have been content, if not excited, if the New York Jets began the 2009 campaign 3-2. Yet after a 3-0 start, 3-2 doesn't quite have the ring to it that it did back in the beginning of September. While one of the three on the left side of the ledger represents a victory over the hated New England Patriots, on the other side is a loss to the Miami Dolphins, not quite as bitter but still far from sweet.

The strengths of the New York Jets, just a few short months into the Rex Ryan regime, have been a healthy balance of quasi-conservative but effective offense and a staggering defense, quite similar to the Baltimore Ravens of last season. In games 1 through 3, Gang Green executed this "Flacco formula," if you will, to a T. With their own rookie QB leading the offense to 4 passing touchdowns and another 3 rushing on the ground, the defense took care of business, holding opposing offenses scoreless for 9 quarters before the Titans cracked the goal line in the second quarter of week 3.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/teams/photo?photoId=2355013&team=mia
Weeks 4 and 5 have been a different story, revealing a telling circumstance- for this team to succeed, they must play well on both sides of the ball. The defense held up their end of the bargain in week 4, holding New Orleans' high-octane offense to just 10 points two weeks ago, but Mark Sanchez handed 14 points to the Saints defense, committing four turnovers to seal the first Jet loss of the year. Last week against the Dolphins, Sanchez redeemed himself somewhat with a modest but efficient turnover-free performance, going 12-for-24 with a touchdown strike to newly acquired Braylon Edwards. Yet, despite a season high 27 point output, the defense also gave up a season high in surrendering 413 yards to the gimmicky wildcat offense, 151 on the ground led by Ronnie Brown's 2 touchdowns (above).

Leading up to Miami, the Jets had given up an increasing amount of rushing yards week by week, though Miami's running game actually totaled 2 less yards than the Saints did the previous week. Nonetheless, the more disturbing statistic involved the passing game. In just his fourth career start, Chad Henne compiled 241 passing yards, the highest of any quarterback against the Jets this season, more than Matt Schaub (145), Tom Brady (216), and Drew Brees (190). Schaub and Brady are 3rd and 4th in passing yardage this season, respectively.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-5-vs-Cleveland/44aec600-adc4-49cf-aabf-e09353ffdcac
Following consecutive losses on the road- one loss apiece attributed to the offense and the defense- the New York Jets should be glad to return home this week to face a Buffalo Bills team that is reeling after an ugly 6-3 loss to the woeful Cleveland Browns, a previously winless team under the direction of a controversial and highly unpopular head coach who just traded away the best receiver on the roster. Nonetheless, in the midst of the hell that is the Cleveland Browns franchise, despite a miserable 2 for 17 performance by Derek Anderson, Buffalo found a way to lose. How they did it, I don't know, but frankly, it's beyond me.

The Bills have taken leaps and bounds- backwards- since their devastating week 1 loss to the Patriots. Buffalo's troubles began with Leodis McKelvin's fumbled kick return that allowed Brady to orchestrate a game-winning drive. Since then, the low-lights have continued steadily, with the Saints running game stampeding for 222 yards in week 3, followed by a 250-yard, 3-score debacle at the hands of the Wildcat in week 4.

One of the few pluses in Buffalo was the return of running back Marshawn Lynch, who has gotten off to a slow start after serving a 3-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. Lynch has actually performed better in the passing game than when running the ball, though the team's leading receiver is Lynch's backfield counterpart Fred Jackson, who has caught 20 passes. The two backs have already connected with QB Trent Edwards just 5 less times than Buffalo's wide receivers. Lynch's 11 catches rank fourth on the Bills roster behind Jackson, Lee Evans and Terrell Owens.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-3-vs-New-Orleans/a566b437-fa2d-4bcc-abc9-c97759a1e2fd
Owens (left) has been a major bust since joining "North America's Team" this offseason, and has just 12 catches for 202 yards and one TD through 5 games. His streak of 185 consecutive games with at least one reception came to an abrupt end in week 3, yet the controversial wideout has been uncharacteristically silent about his situation, at least with the media. Still, T.O. has been the center of trade rumors circling around the Bills leading up to Tuesday's upcoming deadline.

With From the firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert in the preseason, the lack of performance from the offense, and a defense that seems completely unable to stop the run, it's clear that the Buffalo Bills are in a state of disarray. This only bodes well for the Jets, who are 9.5 point favorites this week as a result.

Key Matchup: WR Braylon Edwards vs. CB's Terrence McGee/Drayton Florence
With Leodis McKelvin out for the season with a broken leg, Braylon Edwards (right) and the Jets receivers will be looking at McGee and Florence from across the line of scrimmage. Edwards performed well in his Jets debut, catching 5 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown, with a potential second score ruled down on the 1 upon review. The former Brown could see more passes his way this week, having had more practice time with his new teammates, combined with the absence of Jerricho Cotchery, who will miss this contest with a hamstring injury. The 6'3," 215-pound Edwards has a clear height advantage against either corner; Florence is giving 3 inches and 15 pounds while McGee is even smaller at 5'9," 198.

http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14774

Key Matchup: Jets Pass Rush vs. Bills O-Line
The Jets defense, which has been solid in 4 out of its 5 games, is surprisingly tied for dead last in the NFL with 4 sacks. Trent Edwards has been sacked four or more times in three games this season. Only Aaron Rodgers (20) has been brought down more times than than the 18 sacks Edwards has sustained this season. Inevitably, something has to give here: Either Edwards finally gets some breathing room, or the Jets finally explode. Coming off a lackluster defensive performance from which Chad Henne emerged unscathed, I expect the latter this week.

Jets' Wildcards: TE Dustin Keller/RB Leon Washington
Both Keller and Washington are still waiting for a breakout game this season, and this week might be it for at least one of them. In 6 career games against Buffalo, Washington has averaged 6.1 yards per carry, adding on 7.9 yards per catch. He has never broken 85 total yards from scrimmage in any game against the Bills, but with the Jets down 2 receivers, Washington has the hands to pick up some of the slack, and the big play ability to do some damage.

As for Keller, I know he didn't deliver in the Superdome like I expected he would, and he was non-existent last week against Miami. However, Buffalo has yielded 21 receptions, 229 yards and 3 touchdowns to tight ends this season. Linebacker Paul Posluszny (broken arm) and Donte Whitner (thumb) should both be returning from their respective injuries this week, while injuries to the Jets receivers leave Wallace Wright as third on the depth chart. Keller is a far more viable target than Wright, and could finally have that big week as one of Mark Sanchez' top three options.

Prediction:
Without question, both teams have a lot to play for, albeit in very different terms. New York is looking to recapture their form from earlier this season that had people thinking playoffs, while the Bills are desperate to stop the bleeding and fend off a fourth consecutive loss, which would drop them into a three game deficit at 1-5.

Both teams are hurting, but again in varying respects. The Jets are hurting, both from injury and last week's insult at the hands of the Dolphins. Buffalo is hurting mostly from insult, having just lost to the Browns, a loss so bad that I must again point out that Derek Anderson completed 2 passes, total, just to emphasize how epic the loss was. Yet, as uneven as this week 6 matchup may seem (as I mentioned earlier, the spread is 9.5 points in the Jets favor) surprisingly the Jets and Bills are tied for 23rd in the league with their 4.9 yards per play.
http://www.buffalobills.com/media-lounge/photo-gallery/Week-5-vs-Cleveland/44aec600-adc4-49cf-aabf-e09353ffdcac
That being said, this game will likely come down to defense, and in that respect, the Jets undoubtedly have the edge. The Bills do have two solid running backs, but what they don't have is the Wildcat to cause confusion with their ground attack. Marshawn Lynch (left) busted out for 127 yards on 21 carries on the road against the Jets last season, but aside from last week's road bump, this year's defense is far different than anything Lynch is used to seeing from Gang Green. Rex Ryan will almost definitely have the D raring, and they'll be in a nasty mood after being embarrassed last week. I'd look for them to join the offense and return to the form we saw earlier this season.

On the offensive side of the ball, the timing of the injuries to Cotchery and Smith come with some potential for a silver lining; Gang Green is 7th in the league with 132 yards per game on the ground, and that average could be boosted against a Buffalo defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the run. As for the Bills offensive attack, Trent Edwards has been less than inspiring, and if the rumors have any validity to them, "Who are the Buffalo Bills?" could wind up being the Jeopardy question to the answer, "The team with which Terrell Owens had his shortest tenure."

Yes, we will all be watching in great suspense T.O.'s 6th, and perhaps final game as a Bill. As loud as he has been in the past, this could be his quietest exit from any team he's played for, both at the mic and on the field; the Jets defense will be making the majority of the noise here.
Jets 27, Bills 12