With Dolphins Ahead, Was Sanchez' Floundering a Fluke?

by Mike Trovato

* Despite the title of this post, let it be known that the fish-related puns end here.

Week 5- October 12th, 2009
New York Jets (3-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Land Shark Stadium, Opa-Locka, FL







Sometimes, the best way to move past a bad performance is to get right back on the field. For Mark Sanchez, he's had an extra day to think about a game he would like to forget.

The New York Jets head into Miami for a Monday night football showdown of division rivals. The Jets and Dolphins have a long history of great games, including the greatest comeback in NFL history and Monday Night Football all-time classic, dubbed the "Monday Night Miracle" back in 2000.

This time around, there is no Vinny Testaverde, Curtis Martin or Wayne Chrebet, no Jumbo Elliot to catch an improbable touchdown to send a 37-37 game into overtime. The cast of characters this time around will be Sanchez, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and the Jets latest acquisition, former Browns wide receiver Braylon Edwards.
http://www.giantstalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/braylon-edwards.jpg
Edwards (left) is two seasons removed from an 80-catch, 1,289-yard 16-touchdown 2007 season, but has seen his production decline over his last 19 games. In '07, the former Michigan Wolverine compiled four 100-yard games, four 8-reception games, and four games with multiple touchdowns. From that point on, he has broken 100 yards just three times and caught 8 passes in a game just once. Edwards has zero 2-TD games, and his last score came in week 9 of last season. Since then, the Browns have gone 1-11 leading up to this week's trade of the disgruntled receiver, who could benefit from the change of scenery.

The Browns-Jets deal marks the second major trade between Eric Mangini and his old team in the past 6 months. The first of course came on draft day, when Gang Green moved into Cleveland's #5 draft slot to grab Mark Sanchez. Wednesday's trade sent WR Chansi Stuckey, LB and special teams stud Justin Trusnik and two draft picks to Cleveland in exchange for Edwards, who was the #3 overall pick in the 2005 draft.

http://neworleanssaints.com/Home/Multimedia/Photo%20Galleries.aspx?year=2009&month=10

The 6'3" Edwards will give Mark Sanchez a big target, especially in the red zone, and could help the rookie bounce back from last week's disaster in New Orleans. Sanchez came as close to a single-handed loss as one can come, committing four turnovers, two of which occurred less than 6 minutes apart, each resulting in Saints defensive touchdowns. The defense was again fantastic for Rex Ryan, but was not enough to overcome Sanchez' rookie mistakes.

Edwards, having played for Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan in Cleveland, will make his Jets debut for the other Ryan twin Rex in the spotlight of the Monday night stage, but could see added pressure to produce right away if Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) cannot play. Cotchery has missed the past few days of practice, and is questionable. That, combined with Edwards not being fully accustomed to the offense yet, plus Sanchez trying to rebound, the Jets D will need to show up even bigger against a Dolphins team that beat up on the Buffalo Bills last weekend.

The Bills are clearly moving in reverse, but the Dolphins' performance was still impressive, allowing just 46 rushing yards to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, who accumulated 4 yards on 8 carries in his return from suspension. Miami nailed Trent Edwards for 6 sacks, forcing 3 interceptions as they shut down Buffalo 38-10. In his first start replacing Chad Pennington, Chad Henne was a respectable 14 for 22, and did not turn the ball over, though he, like Edwards, was sacked 6 times. Henne was backed by a running game that spotted him 250 yards, led by Ronnie Brown's 115 yards and another 85 from Ricky Williams.

Key Matchup: Jets Linebackers vs. RB Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams
With Miami lacking a true #1 receiver, Darrelle Revis should have little trouble containing the likes of Ted Ginn, Jr., Davone Bess, Brian Hartline or Greg Camarillo- whomever he winds up lining up against. The ground game is where the Dolphins hurt their opponents, thanks to the deceptive and confusing Wildcat offense. Last season, Rex Ryan's Ravens D shut down the Wildcat, jumping out to a 17-6 first half lead, containing Miami to 71 yards on the ground. Pennington was forced to make things happen with Brown and Williams in check, and did not fare well. The game plan should be the same for Ryan's Jet defense on Monday night, this time against the far more inexperienced Henne.

New York will welcome back another huge piece of their defense, linebacker Calvin Pace, who contributed 80 tackles, 7 sacks and 5 forced fumbles in 2008, his first season as a Jet. Pace will join Bart Scott, David Harris and Vernon Gholston as a key member of one of the most talented linebacking corps in the league. That combination gives the Jets the personnel to tame the Wildcat, should they get to the second level of the Jets D. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/mia/photos#photoViewer=urn%3Anewsml%3Asports.yahoo%2Cgetty%3A20050301%3Anfl%2Cphoto%2C9810494483ecee3b861219ad0a63d6ef-getty-88971979db029_buffalo_bills%3A1
Key Matchup: QB Mark Sanchez vs. Dolphins Secondary
Both teams are coming off of three interception performances last week, but in very different ways. The Dolphins defense pulled down their first three interceptions of the season at the expense of Trent Edwards last week; Mark Sanchez threw for three picks. There is no doubt that Sanchez will try to make up for that, but he will need to be careful not to overcompensate.

Sanchez must protect the ball, something he has struggled with, and make smart throws to keep the Dolphins honest. If he can do so, the presencel of Braylon Edwards should spread Miami out, opening things up for Leon Washington and Thomas Jones. With Miami surely riding the wave of last week's lopsided victory, the Jets need to return to their game plan from their first three games: hammer opponents on defense and allow Sanchez to manage the offense without forcing plays.

Stat of the Week: Sacks
The Dolphins are tied for 6th in the NFL with 11 sacks. The Jets, as stellar as they have been on defense, are tied for 30th with 4, just one more than the league worst Jaguars D. However, the Buffalo Bills were able to bring down Chad Henne 6 times last week, despite Miami having run the ball over 61 percent of the time (45 rushes in 73 plays). That being said, the Jets could be looking at a breakout week in the sack category.

Likewise for Miami, Mark Sanchez was extremely vulnerable last week, holding on to the ball too long on numerous occasions, resulting in 4 Saints sacks. After not being sacked at all in Week 1, Sanchez has been brought down with the ball consistently more in each successive week; twice in week 2, three times in week 3 leading up to last week's four. If Sanchez and the Jets O-line cannot reverse this trend, the Dolphins could pull off a victory on Monday night.
http://www.newyorkjets.com/fan_zone/download/photos/14573
Prediction:
Well, I was dead wrong last week anticipating a big game from Mark Sanchez, as he instead gift wrapped the game for Sean Payton's Saints, whose explosive offense was held in check all game long. As confident as I've been in the Jets thus far, I am that uncertain about our rookie QB this week. The Jets coaching staff has undoubtedly been working with him, but the difference in this game could easily be parallelled by the amount of time Sanchez spends overthinking his decisions.

The bottom line is that this Jet team has too much talent and potential to allow the rook to give games away, and although it's a bit early to talk about a benching, we all saw what can happen when Mark can't regain that uncanny poise we saw through week 3. If Sanchez' pressing carries over from last week, Rex Ryan may need to take that more aggressive approach to settling the kid down.

Remember, Miami is essentially starting its own rookie; though Henne is in his second year, he has less games under his belt than Sanchez. I'll give the former Trojan Sanchez the benefit of the doubt this week, but he absolutely must put last week out of his mind and play fluently and naturally. It may mean a modest 15 for 23, under 200 passing yards and no TD tosses, but if it also means zero turnovers, handing the ball off, controlling the clock and taking the thought process out of the flow of the game, so be it.
Jets 13, Miami 10