MLB Playoff Picture 2010- National League Championship Series

by Mike Trovato

San Francisco Giants (92-7) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

def. ATL 3-1 in NLDS def. CIN 3-0 in NLDS

San Francisco Giants
Offensively, the Giants weren't something to write home about against the Braves in the NLDS. Despite 3 RBI apiece from mid-season acquisitions Cody Ross and Pat Burrell, only Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey appeared totally locked in at the plate, going 6-for-16 (.375), the only Giant to hit above .300 for the series. As a small consolation, San Francisco did have the highest NL slugging percentage in round one. a less-than-stellar .295. But then again, no National League team has hit a lick in this year's playoffs, and in a series dominated by pitching, the Giants 11 runs in four games was still enough to knock off Bobby Cox's Atlanta Braves.

Yet, despite the best collective pitching performance by any team in the postseason, the Giants young guns have been overshadowed amidst all the talk about no hitters and whatnot. So here's some recognition: The San Francisco Giants starting pitching is the best in the 2010 playoffs thus far; their miniscule 0.93 ERA and 11.17 strikeouts per inning ratio rank first among all playoff teams through one round of competition.

Still, no one seems to be talking very much about them, at least not in terms of them being a serious contender. Tim Lincecum's 14 strikeouts in his complete game two-hit shutout was about as good a performance as you will see, no-no's aside. At least that got some chatter; Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez truly got a raw deal. Cain threw 6.2 scoreless innings in Game 3 on the heels of Sanchez' gem. Sanchez fanned 11 in 7.1 innings in Game 2, and he too allowed just two hits, though he did allow one whole run to score.

Say what you want about "H20," but here's one better- Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez abbreviated is LCS, granted, Madison Bumgarner doesn't fit into any acronyms... Joking aside, yes, give credit where it is due to H20, as it is an incredible 1-2-3 tandem. However, one through four, no team has it better right now than San Francisco. Consider that with an average age of the four starters being a peach fuzzy 24.5 years, the Giants have a legitimate, stone cold quartet of starting pitching capable of unbelievable things in the future, and the future could very well be right now.


Philadelphia Phillies
Three is a significant number when it comes to cliches about luck like, "third time's a charm" or three-leaf clovers. For the Philadelphia Phillies, good things seem to come in threes. Presently, the Phils are relying their three top-notch starting pitchers to get them to their third consecutive World Series. In their case, however, luck may not even be necessary.

Roy Halladay has gotten himself acquainted with life in the playoffs quite nicely, although as good as he is, I think he walks one two many batters... Honestly though, what more can you say about a postseason no hitter? Now, I don't consider myself an expert on things of this nature, but come the 7th inning, there was no question about it, it was going to happen. It wasn't one of those "hush hush," let's not jinx this kind of deals. It was unjinxable. Halladay didn't just silence the Reds' bats, he killed more bats than PETA would allow in the literal sense. It was masterful, the single-handed most mechanically methodical manhandlings of a lineup I have ever seen. When all was said and done, Hallday's no hitter essentially marked the only one-game series in playoff history.

What Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels did from that point on was merely a formality. Hamels was brilliant, though his sweep-clinching complete game shutout paled in comparison to the aforementioned Halladay. Oswalt in the middle wasn't great, but he didn't really need to be. The series, for all intents and purposes, ended in Game 1.

Analysis
This may be one of the most intriguing series there could be to pick for, and here's why. Offensively, the difference between the Giants and the Phillies is significant; the Phillies are vastly superior to San Francisco at the plate. However, the progression of pitching matchups is so phenomenal that it's mind-boggling: Lincecum vs. Halladay; Sanchez vs. Oswalt; Hamels vs. Cain. When it comes down to it, this has the potential to be one of the lowest scoring Championship Series of all-time.

With such tight matchups through Game 3, two things come to the forefront becoming exponentially more critical, the Game 4 starters and the bullpens. The Giants clearest edge lies in Game 4, as they are expected to throw Madison Bumgarner against Joe Blanton. While that would likely change if one team is up 3-0, I don't anticipate that being the case.

As far as relief pitching goes, in limited work the Philly bullpen was technically better, but the sample size for the two 'pens is quite small. Collectively, the Phillies (4 IP) and Giants (9 IP) bullpens amassed just 13 innings, with Charlie Manuel's relievers nibbling at the scraps of 4 innings thrown to them in Game 2. The Giants bullpen has been elite, particularly during the final month of the season, but the caveat here is not to compare the two bullpens to each other, but to the respective lineups they will face. The Philadelphia relievers won't have to face the likes of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth on the limited occasions they will be needed. In that regard, the Phillies have the edge.

Prediction
If there's one team equipped to match up against such a juggernaut offense in a best of seven series, I'd have to say it's the Giants. Lincecum certainly has the tools to at the very least not split two head-to-head decisions with "Mr. Doctober." With the luxury of Madison Bumgarner in Game 4, the Giants won't need anyone a third time around, and can very well roll with their top 3 for as long as they will take them. Although that could be 9 strong, logic still dictates that inevitably the bullpens will be called upon, and when that time comes, the Phillies offense stacks up better against the Giants than the Giants bats against the Phillies.

It seems too easy to go ahead and pick another Yankees-Phillies World Series showdown, seeing how both teams are the favorites. It seems that all the Phillies need to do is score first, and they can turn on the cruise control from that point on. I know it won't be that simple, and the Giants will put up a fight. But as much as I'd like to pick the upset here, my gut won't allow it, and I can't justify calling the upset just for the sake of calling it. When it's too close to call, you go with the better team. In my heart of hearts, I know that when it comes down to it, the Phillies are the better team.

Phillies defeat Giants, 4 games to 3

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series (Part 2)

by Mike Trovato

Last but not least...

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

Atlanta Braves
Overview: Of all the managerial changes we will see this offseason, the most notable will be the replacement of Bobby Cox after 25 seasons in Atlanta. The changing of the guard has already been evident on the field, with Chipper Jones being the last remaining piece of the Braves dynasty of the 90's. Rookie Jason Heyward has been a sparkplug for a Braves offense that has been plagued by injuries all season long. No Braves position player appeared in more than 147 games, contributing to what at best an average offense throughout the season.

The pitching staff has carried Atlanta through the rough offensive patches, ranking seventh in fewest walks allowed (505), sixth in strikeouts (1,241), tied for sixth in opponents batting average (.246), 3rd overall in ERA (3.56), and best in the league in home runs allowed (126). The most dominant stretch of pitching began on April 30th, the day after the Braves had lost their 9th consecutive game. At that point, Atlanta was in last place with a record of 8-14, five games behind the first place Mets. That all changed on the 30th, as Braves began a run of .667 baseball, compiling a 44-22 record through the All-Star break.

Over those 66 games, Atlanta lost just eight games in May, and Braves pitching held its opponents to 3 runs or less in 41 of those contests. By the time of the mid-summer classic, they had propelled themselves into first place, four games up on New York in the standings. Although Cox's squad squandered a seven game lead in the final two months, they managed to cling to the wildcard spot on the season's final day.

Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Derrek Lee, IF Alex Gonzalez, OF Rick Ankiel

San Francisco Giants
Overview: All the talk about pitching in the National League has been about the Philadelphia Phillies, But led by the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, San Francisco's pitching staff posted a league-best 3.36 ERA, and was the only club to strike out over 1,300 batters (1,331). Over the final month of the season, the Giants pitching has been surreal. In the starting rotation, the combination of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner combined for a dazzling 141 innings, allowing just 97 hits and 30 walks while striking out 150 en route to a collective 1.66 ERA and 13-4 record. As for the bullpen, Giants relievers held opponents to a .164 batting average in September, striking out 60 while allowing just 49 batters to reach base.

With Pat Burrell leading a re-vamped Giants outfield, the revival of Aubrey Huff's career and the emergence of rookie catcher Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy's crew climbed its way out of fourth place in the NL West. The Giants bats woke up after the All-Star break, slugging the most home runs (80) in the National League, while the pitching staff got even more stingy. In the second half of the season, the Giants recorded a 3.20 team ERA and saved a Major League best 36 games behind closer Brian Wilson. Burrell was a force replacing Pablo Sandoval in the middle of the lineup, slamming 18 home runs and driving in 51, compiling a .872 OPS in the process.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: OF Pat Burrell, OF Jose Guillen, OF Cody Ross, RP Chris Ray

Prediction: Offensively, the Braves and Giants are actually pretty similar:

• Stolen Bases: Giants 55; Braves 63
• Strikeouts: Giants 1,099; Braves 1,140
  
• Slugging: Giants. .408; Braves .401
• Neither team had a player reach 90 RBI

Although both teams are similar over the course of the season in pitching stats as well, there are three factors that will separate Atlanta and San Francisco in this series- experience, rest and momentum.

When it comes to pitching, the Braves have experience on their side. Bobby Cox's Game 1 starter Derek Lowe has amassed a career 3.33 ERA in 82 2/3 postseason innings. Atlanta's Game 2 starter Tim Hudson has a 3.97 playoff ERA with 47 2/3 innings under his belt. Then there's Billy Wagner. As good as he has been for Atlanta this season, Wagner has a horrendous postseason line, an ERA over 10.00 in 11 1/3 innings pitched. Of the Giants three projected NLDS starters, none have ever thrown a pitch in baseball's second season.

In the bullpen, each team has five what I call "regular" relief pitchers-that is, relievers with over 50 appearances on the season. In this regard, San Francisco holds the clear edge. Of the Giants five regular relief men (Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Guillermo Mota), all besides Mota lowered their ERA in the second half of the season. Conversely, Takashi Saito was the only Braves reliever to log a lower ERA post-All-Star break than before it. Every other regular- Johnny Venters, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty and Wagner- saw their ERA rise as the season wound down. As far as rest is concerned, the Giants bullpen got it down the stretch, pitching just 75 1/3 innings over the final month. Braves relievers racked up 107 2/3 innings, which could leave Atlanta's 'pen out of steam.


The third factor, the one that bodes well for Bruce Bochy's young Giants staff is momentum. Momentum can disrupt a level playing field, and in this regard the Braves have none. Bobby Cox's club compiled an uninspiring 14-16 record over their last 30 games. The Giants on the other hand enjoyed an 18-8 September in which their pitching staff's ERA almost matched their opponents' average against them (1.78 ERA, 1.82 BAA). Being that this series should be a relatively low-scoring affair, that spells a major role for the bullpens, which will be the difference maker in favor of San Francisco.

Giants defeat Braves, 3 games to 1

As Angel returns, Mets deal Church

by Mike Trovato

So it looks like Omar Minaya finally got around to reading some blogs after all.

The Mets GM announced late Friday afternoon that the club had traded Ryan Church to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Jeff Francoeur, a swap of right fielders between the division rivals. The deal was made official about an hour before game time, stealing the headlines from Angel Pagan, who was activated from the disabled list after missing five weeks with a strained groin. Pagan cited dehydration from an excess of caffeinated drinks in his diet as a potential cause of the injury...

Alright, I suppose Pagan's return didn't have back-page potential, but even if it did, Omar Minaya exercising the privileges that come with the General Manager title is a much bigger story, and good for him. We were all starting to think he had forgotten some of the minor details his job description actually entailed, you know, like making trades and improving the ball club and things of that nature. Better late than never I suppose. Maybe Omar isn't a spiritual guy; I hope I'm not the only one who sees a slight shred of irony within the transactions made by the Mets on Friday afternoon, getting rid of Church the same day Angel returned. I digress.

The trade for Francoeur is a somewhat curious one, one that makes you scratch your head at first. Church is hitting .280, but has just 2 home runs and 22 RBI. Francoeur isn't exactly having a standout season either, batting .250 with 5 HR and 35 RBI. Truth be told, swapping two right fielders who are putting up no more than average numbers seems questionable, but Omar Minaya is no shallow puddle, and this trade is deeper than the numbers on the surface.

First, there's the issue of age: Church is 30, going on 31 this October, whereas Francoeur turned 25 this offseason. While both are under contract through 2011, Francoeur will be just 27 when his contract expires.

In terms of hitting, the Mets saw a glimpse of Church's potential at the beginning of last season, when he hit above .300 with 10 home runs and 36 RBI before suffering a concussion (pictured left). Church never overcame the ill-effects of the injury, after the Mets medical staff botched how it was handled, and upon his return, he hit just .219 through the remainder of the season.

Jeff Francoeur, on the other hand, has been the definition of durability. Since breaking into the majors in 2005, Francoeur played all 162 games in each of his first two full seasons, 2006 and 2007. He started 155 games in 2008, but the games he missed include a brief period in early July when he was optioned to Triple-A after going 8-for-66 between June 14th and July 3rd. He continued to struggle after being recalled, until heating up a bit and batting .286 in September.

The biggest knock on Francouer is his lack of patience at the plate, reflected by his career .308 on-base percentage. What the Mets are looking for is to discover his monstrous upside, which he flashed a few years back in 2006 and 2007. In his first two full seasons in the bigs, Francoeur put up back-to-back 100+ RBI seasons, averaging 24 home runs.

In addition to his recently untapped power, Francouer brings to the table tremendous defensive talent. He has yet to make an error this season, and had 19 outfield assists in 2007, tied with Alfonso Soriano and Michael Cuddyer for tops in the league. New York will need his arm in the cavernous right field territory at Citi Field, and his sure handedness can only help the Amazins, who are 6th worst in the National League in errors committed.

Francoeur, an Atlanta native, will have to adjust to the New York media, much as Church did graciously, proving to be a class act during his interview following the breaking news. Though he was "shocked" about the trade, Ryan cited no hard feelings between himself and the Mets organization, despite rumors that he and manager Jerry Manuel did not see eye to eye. Church said he hoped that Met fans would cheer him when he returns to Citi Field as an Atlanta Brave next week.

As for the Mets, hopefully the arrival of Francoeur will spark some kind of hitting, who desperately need some kind of production at the plate. Over their last seven games, the Mets have scored a meager 7 runs, and Manuel's troops were shut out for the third time this week on Friday night, this time by Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo. With the loss, the Mets are now 6.5 games behind the division leading Phillies, their largest deficit of the season, with two games remaining before the All-Star break.

While there's no telling how we will look back on this trade, one thing is certain. It's a low-risk, high reward deal, and personally, I'm glad it was done. Yes, Francoeur may have his fair share of golden sombreros, but perhaps, for some reason, the Mets coaches can help correct his impatient habits. Of course it is logical to be a skeptic; if they can't solve the problem they've been having all season, why then would they be able to help Francoeur become Barry Bonds in terms of his eye and discipline at the plate? However, should he successfully harness the power he had in '06 and '07, the Mets will have themselves a very solid situation in right field, one step towards some kind of stability.

Omar Minaya hinted during his press conference that the Mets have a lot more moves to make. How about a pitcher next, Omar? I've been a proponent of testing out the waters in the free agency pool, and the Blue Jays just released former closer B.J. Ryan (left). His numbers this season are poor, but given his upside, it couldn't hurt to sign him, given that J.J. Putz will be sidelined until at least mid-August. At the very least, he would be another left-handed option out of the bullpen along with Pedro Feliciano. By adding Ryan, the Mets would also have themselves another insurance policy for K-Rod. Ryan is a great clubhouse guy, too, as his former Jays teammates noted in commenting on his surprising release.

If you're not interested in picking up a free agent, if it's a trade you're looking to make, I assume Jonathan Sanchez (above center) would have been a fairly easier pickup 24 hours ago, but after pitching a no-hitter against San Diego on Friday, his price likely just jumped up a bit. Still, the Mets starting pitching hasn't quite been what it should be lately; Livan Hernandez has unraveled over his last two starts, Fernando Nieve has thrown in a few stinkers after his 3-0 start, and even Johan Santana hasn't been Johan Santana for a couple months now. Perhaps Sanchez or Seattle's Jarrod Washburn (above right)- who is also on the trading block but ironically just threw a one-hitter on Monday- can be had for a fair price, though Sanchez at age 27 may cost more than Washburn, who turns 35 next month.

There is one other option, one that would cost the Mets nothing at all. That of course, is brining up minor league talent. Nelson Figueroa is having a solid season for Buffalo, and was named to the Triple A All-Star team this week. Figueroa, a journeyman who has pitched for six Major League affiliates, the Independent Long Island Ducks, and has spent time in the Mexican League and Chinese Professional Baseball League. He has been serviceable in his brief stints with the Mets Major League club.

In 14 starts for Buffalo this year, Figueroa is 5-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, along with a 3:1 K:BB ratio (75 strikeouts, 23 walks) over 90 innings. There's also Jon Niese, who is 4-6 for the Bisons with a 4.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, with Figueroa's exact strikeout and walk totals in 81.1 innings pitched. Niese is younger than I am, and won't turn 23 until the offseason, but with the current state of the Mets, it may be worth giving him another look. Should Livan continue to falter and the Mets decide to rearrange their starting rotation, it can't hurt to get Niese some more big league innings under his belt.

Whatever the Mets decide to do, ultimately it's a breath of fresh air to see Omar Minaya finally shaking things up, and even more encouraging to hear that the trade for Jeff Francoeur is the first of several changes to come in the near future.


Thought: What number will Francoeur wear? He wore #7 in Atlanta, but that number belongs to a Mr. Jose Reyes, and Fernando Tatis sports #17...

Prediciton: Francoeur will wear #27 as a Met.