MLB Playoff Picture 2010- World Series

by Mike Trovato


After six months of play, just two teams remain in the quest for greatness. The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants were favored by no one coming into the playoffs, but both needed just six games to knock off the 2009 pennant winners from their respective leagues.

Tonight, the Rangers and Giants will play Game One of the 2010 World Series, and within the next ten days, only one will be left standing as Champions of Major League Baseball.

Texas Rangers

Texas handled the reigning World Champion New York Yankees on all fronts, out-pitching and outhitting the most productive lineup in baseball during the regular season. Slugging center fielder and MVP candidate Josh Hamilton hit .350 with a 1.000 slugging percentage, belting 4 homers and 7 RBI against New York to take the ALCS MVP honors. The Rangers clubbed 14 doubles against Yankee pitching, en route to a collective .304 average for the ALCS. A stellar performance by Colby Lewis the Game 6 clinched Texas' first World Series berth in franchise history. Lewis shut the Yankees down, whiffing 7 and allowing just 7 base runners through 8 innings of one-run ball. More importantly, the Rangers advanced without needing to throw Cliff Lee in a Game 7, meaning Ron Washington will throw his ace in Game 1 of the Fall Classic.

San Francisco Giants

In the NLCS, San Francisco's offense held its own against a Philadelphia Phillies rotation that was expected to silence the Giants' bats. Instead, it was the Phillies bats that were held in check by Giants pitching, managing just 3 home runs and a mere .214 team average against the young arms of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner. Though the Giants didn't hit all that well either, they received a boost from one of their mid-season acquisitions, outfielder Cody Ross. Ross accounted for 3 of the Giants' 4 home runs in the series, but two of them powered San Francisco past Phils ace Roy Halladay in Game 1. The 4-3 victory became the trademark for Bochy's squad, as three of their four victories came in one-run fashion, sealed up by flame-throwing closer Brian Wilson.

Analysis

Obviously, the way teams match up are a huge factor in how interesting a series can be. Some series are a matchup of two dominant offensive teams, other times a pitcher's duel seems eminent. But the stark contrasts in the way these two teams match up is what makes the 2010 World Series even more intriguing.

The Giants have not faced an offense as potent as that of the Texas Rangers all season long, playoffs or otherwise. Texas produced 787 runs and hit .276 as a team during the season, and is averaging nearly 5.4 runs per game this postseason, including 38 runs against the Yankees. On the other hand, the Rangers have not faced a pitching staff as dominant as the Giants pitching staff. San Francisco owned a 3.36 team ERA, the lowest in baseball this season, and only the Atlanta Braves had a lower ERA than San Francisco's 2.37 throughout the postseason.

Offensively, the Giants have remained consistent with their regular season output, and actually tallied a lower team average than they did during the season. For that reason, San Francisco may have less to fall back on, as their pitching is by far their main strength. Yet, that was the case in the NLCS, against a better pitching staff than Texas, yet they still managed a win against Roy Halladay.

What may prove to be a deciding factor is the Rangers pitching. Texas has overachieved against what is supposed to be "elite" competition during the playoffs, with ERAs and opponent batting averages significantly lower than what they were during the course of the regular season. The Rangers bullpen was strong as well, as their relievers held a solid 2.25 ERA against the Yankees. That said, Texas may be able to rely on their pitching to get them through, should their hitting falter. Another interesting foot note is that Texas will have to field Vladimir Guerrero while playing by National League rules at AT&T Park. Interestingly enough, the pitching matchups may offset the defensive drop-off, as the Rangers will throw Lee and C.J. Wilson, two lefties, in Games 1 and 2.

Prediction

Texas by far has the better hitting and is much better on the base paths than the Giants are. Although, so were the Giants' last opponents, and things turned out alright for them so far. The starters between Lee and Lincecum's projected starts can go either way, though I do like Cain, but it can't be ignored that the Giants have not faced a well-rested Cliff Lee. Despite his regular season numbers, Lee is a bona fide force on the mound in playoff baseball, with a career 7-0 postseason record and 1.26 ERA, including two World Series victories in 2009. It would be very difficult to see the Giants having much success should they have to face Lee three times, in the event of a Game 7, though I don't think it will go that far.

Rangers defeat Giants, 4 games to 2

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- American League Championship Series

by Mike Trovato

American League Championship Series

New York Yankees (5-67) vs. Texas Rangers (90-72)

def. MIN 3-0 in ALDS def. TB 3-2 in ALDS

Texas Rangers
For a team known better for its offense during the regular season, the Texas Rangers pitching has been a pleasant surprise during the 2010 postseason thus far. The mid-season acquisition of Cliff Lee was clearly made with October (and November) in mind. As much as he struggled during the second half of the regular season, come October, Lee delivers. Leading a talented staff of young arms, the southpaw continued his postseason dominance in the ALDS, mowing through the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. Lee compiled an incredible 21 strikeouts to no walks (that's right, no walks), to the tune of a 1.14 ERA. Manager Ron Washington will turn to Lee in Game 3, again on the road, as he won both starts in Tampa Bay.

As for the offense, the Rangers clobbered 8 home runs in the first round, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler's 3 apiece, and with little help from their MVP candidate Josh Hamilton. Hamilton clearly showed signs of rust against Tampa Bay, having missed 24 straight games with a rib injury in September. The Rangers were the beneficiary of 5 Rays fielding errors in round one, taking advantage of the miscues with aggressive and alert base running. The Yankees, however, are much better defensively, having made no errors in their sweep of Minnesota. Therefore, Texas will need more production from the bats of Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero and Michael Young if they intend to compete; the talented trio went a combined 10-for-57 (.175 BA) against the Rays in the ALDS.

New York Yankees
The reigning World Champions continued their ownership of the Twins, completing yet another playoff sweep in extending their playoff streak against Minnesota to 9 games. Last year's stars (Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, A-Rod and Swisher) did their job in the ALDS, but it was new Yankees Curtis Granderson and Lance Berkman who stepped up big. In just 11 at-bats, the "Grandy Man" knocked 5 hits and drove in 3 runs, while Berkman went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI, the second of which gave New York the go-ahead run in Game 2.

The Yankees bats did as much to produce runs as their pitching did to prevent them, as the Bombers outscored the Twins 17-7 in the series. Ace C.C. Sabathia actually had the worst outing of the three Yankee starters, surrendering 4 runs in Game 1. Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes tossed 7 innings apiece, Hughes doing so while shutting out the already suffocating Twins offense in the clinching Game 3. The bullpen was just as spectacular, as Kerry Wood allowed the lone run given up by Yankees relief. As usual, Mariano Rivera closed the door for the final two wins.


Analysis
The common perception seems to be that Texas is at a disadvantage before even stepping on the field, as Cliff Lee won't pitch until Game 3. However, the Rangers playoff rotation posted a 1.17 ERA, and although those numbers are somewhat Lee-heavy, neither C.J. Wilson nor Colby Lewis allowed a run in their respective LDS starts. While matching up against Sabathia is no easy task for C.J. Wilson, C.C. wasn't exactly sharp pitching on 7 days rest in Minnesota, and now he will go on 8 days rest to kick off the ALCS. Needless to say, Wilson stands a fighting chance, and if he delivers, the Rangers could very well find themselves up 2-1 after Lee's start on Monday, and heading into a matchup with the erratic A.J. Burnett in Game 4.

Bengie Molina will need to squeeze everything he can out of those young arms with his pitch calling behind the plate. Conversely, the Yankees must strive to reach the Rangers bullpen. Should New York successfully drive the Rangers young starters out of Games 1 and 2 early, that could spell trouble for Texas. The Rangers bullpen performance against Tampa Bay was a stark contrast to that of its starting pitching. In 13.1 innings of work, Texas "relief" was anything but, allowing 21 base runners (16 hits, 5 walks), of which 8 crossed home plate, for a bloated 5.27 ERA.

Texas must get on base at a much higher rate, as the Yankees team batting average (.314) was higher than the Rangers team on-base percentage (.286) in round one. Given New York's flawless defense, getting on base by their own production is a must for Texas. The Rangers offense will be their best defense, and the longer they can hold off from using their bullpen, the better.

Prediction
The Rangers are certainly capable of putting up a fight, and with A.J. Burnett going in Game 4, Game 1 could prove pivotal, because the last thing the Yankees want is for this series to go 7, where they would likely draw Cliff Lee. Still, if there's one thing the Yankees do well, it's running up the pitch counts, which easily could be the difference maker in the outcome in this series. Wilson, Lewis and Tommy Hunter all surpassed their previous innings pitched totals this season, and Wilson (+137.0 IP) and Lewis (+79.0 IP) shattered their previous single-season highs. That said, Ron Washington may very well be forced to rely on a bullpen that blew up against a scuffling Rays lineup that in no way matches the potency of the lineup Joe Girardi will field.

Yankees defeat Rangers, 4 games to 2

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series

by Mike Trovato

On the eve of the Major League Baseball playoffs (and by the time this post goes up, it won't be the eve any more), I figure it's only appropriate to make some predictions. So, here it goes...

American League Division Series

Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

Texas Rangers
The revival of Vladamir Guerrero's career, along with Rangers' slugging center fielder Josh Hamilton helped Texas ran away with the AL West. Despite a streaky September in which the Rangers compiled a 5-game losing streak and a 7-game winning streak in succession, Texas still finished 9 games ahead of second place Oakland. Hamilton missed a month of action before making his return to the lineup for the final regular season series, going 3-for-11 with a home run and 3 RBI, his 100th of the season. Hamilton finished the year with a ML-best .359 average, never dipping below .340 after July 4th.

Key Mid-season Acquisitions: SP Cliff Lee, C Bengie Molina, RF Jeff Francoeur, IF/OF Christian Guzman, IF Jorge Cantu

Tampa Bay Rays
Overview: Fueled by the arm of Cy Young candidate David Price, the Rays take the American League's best record into this year's postseason despite backing their way into the AL East title over the Yankees. Tampa Bay finished 13-14 over their final 27 games, averaging a mere 2.0 runs over their last 8 contests. Third Baseman Evan Longoria, the Rays leader in doubles, RBI and OPS, has msised the final 10 games with a quad injury, and will not be at full strength for the ALDS opener.

Mid-season Acquisitions: RP Chad Qualls, OF Brad Hawpe

Head-to-Head in 2010: Tampa won the season series between the two clubs 4-2, outscoring Texas 24-11 in their 3 game sweep of the Rangers back in August. Matt Garza racked up wins in both series, logging 14 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP over 12.2 total innings.

Prediction: The Rangers can hit, and led all of baseball with a .276 team Batting Average. If their pitching comes through, the Rays and their paltry .247 BA may struggle to produce, especially if Evan Longoria shows signs of rust. With C.J. Wilson's sub-3.00 road ERA and Tampa slated to throw the struggling James Shields in Game 2, the Rangers could find themselves in position to sting the Rays in Arlington, where they were 51-30 on their turf. Yet, I still figure the teams will trade wins, and the series will come down to Cliff Lee and David Price in a Game 5 scenario. Lee has been shaky since joining Texas in July, but his performance in the 2009 postseason makes him a big game lock until proven otherwise, which will be the difference.

Rangers defeat Rays, 3 games to 2

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)

New York Yankees
Overview: C.C. Sabathia finished 2010 at 21-7, tied for the Major League lead in victories. Of course, it doesn't hurt when your offense smashes the third highest home run total in the league. The Bombers slugged 201 dingers, propelling them to the most runs scored (859) of any team in the majors by far. Alex Rodriguez, despite his lowest OBP and SLG output since 1997 and a career low .270 full-season batting average, posted his 13th consecutive 30 HR-100 RBI season. Along with Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, the trio of infielders combined for the most run production of any three teammates in baseball. Curtis Granderson came on strong in September to finish out the year with 24 round-trippers.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Lance Berkman, OF Austin Kearns, RP Kerry Wood...

It's worth nothing that Kerry Wood has been lights out since joining the Yankees at the trading deadline, posting a 0.69 ERA over 26 innings. Wood's 10 holds are the highest among any Yankees reliever since he was acquired from Cleveland.

Minnesota Twins
Overview: The Twins seem to be one of the best franchises top to bottom in all of baseball. Their current starting lineup consists of 5 home-grown players- Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Danny Valencia-, and that doesn't include Justin Morneau, who will miss the entire 2010 postseason. The Twins pitching staff is littered with Twins draftees: Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Alex Burnett, Jesse Crain, Brian Duensing, Jeff Manship, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey. Needless to say, year in and year out, they put a winning product on the field. 2010 was no different, as the Twins were second in baseball in OBP (.341) and triples (41), third in the league in team batting (.273) and doubles (318), and second in the American League in fewest errors committed (78) and fielding percentage (.987). In typical Twins fashion, the whole was greater than the sum of its parts, as Minnesota had a different leader for every major statistical offensive category:

• Runs Scored- Michael Cuddyer (93)
• Batting Average- Joe Mauer (.327)
• Home Runs- Jim Thome (25)
• Runs Batted In- Delmon Young (112)
• Stolen Bases- Denard Span (26)
  

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: CL Matt Capps, RP Brian Fuentes

Head-to-Head in 2010: New York took 2 of 3 in each set between the two clubs this season, despite only outscoring the Twins 24-21 over the six games. In the three games at Target Field, however, Minnesota held the Yankees to just 6 runs, which may be a factor given that the Twins have home field advantage. Andy Pettitte picked up two of the four Yankee victories against Minnesota in May.

Prediction: The Twins finally have the home field advantage in the playoffs for a change, which bodes well for them since they have best home record in baseball (53-28). What does not bode well for them is that they once again drawn their kryptonite, the New York Yankees. The Yankees have knocked Minnesota out of three of their previous four postseason appearances, including a three game sweep in the 2009 ALDS. Minnesota won't get swept again, and their left-handed pitching may throw off the reigning World Champs. Andy Pettitte's health is in question, and could be crucial should the series require a Game 5, but it probably won't go that far. The Twins should be able to pull out a win, but if the Yankees opt to throw Sabathia up 2-1, that will be about all.

Yankees defeat Twins, 3 games to 1


National League Division Series

Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

Cincinnati Reds
Overview: The Reds have fought their way back into the playoffs after a 15 year hiatus. With leadership from Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera and Bronson Arroyo, the Reds have a mix of seasoned veterans to go along with their emerging young core of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Cincinnati has been an offensive jugggernaut, leading ann National League teams in team batting (.271), slugging (.436), OPS (.774), home runs (188) and run production (790). Votto, top-3 in every triple crown category, has been an absolute monster, leading the team in virtually every offensive statistic except triples: 106 runs, 177 hits, 36 doubles, 37 home runs, 113 RBI, 328 total bases, 91 walks, .324 BA, .424 OBP, .600 SLG. He even swiped 16 stolen bases, tying him for second on the team. The question for the Reds lies in their bullpen, where closer Francisco Cordero blew 8 save attempts, and it's possible that Dusty Baker could turn to the flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman and his 105 MPH fastball in save situations.

Philadelphia Phillies
Overview: The Phillies have been the cream of the crop in Major League Baseball over the past three seasons. With a veteran core already full of postseason experience, Philadelphia added not one but two aces (and Roys) to their pitching rotation. Collectively for the Phillies, Halladay and Oswalt compiled a combined 28-11 record, 2.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10 complete games, 5 shutouts, and one perfect game. All this with Oswalt having been on another team for the first four months of the season. Those numbers make Cole Hamels' 12-11, 3.06, 1.18- respectable numbers indeed- seem like that of a minor league prospect.
With a plethora of injuries to their starting position players, only 5 Phillies appeared in over 120 games. Of their eight opening day starters, only Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez avoided the disabled list. Still, the Phillies operated like a well-oiled machine. On the morning of July 8th, Philadelphia sat in third place, just three games over .500 at 43-40. From that point on, the Phils went 54-25, overcoming what was at its height a 7-game deficit to overtake the National League East for the fourth straight season.

Prediction: The Reds may be a feisty bunch, and have a lot to look forward to going forward. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies are capable of winning a slugfest as well as a pitcher's duel. Philadelphia amassed 21 wins in September, and in those 21 wins, H2O took 13 while the offense pushed 130 runs across home plate. Let's err on the side of logic, given that the Reds will face the most dominant threesome of starting pitching in baseball. Even if Cincy's top-ranked run-producing offense can manage putting some numbers on the board, their pitching will be no match for a Phillies offense that ranked right behind them.

Phillies defeat Reds, 3 games to 1


I should get to the Braves and Giants before the series starts on Friday, but in case I don't, I'll go with the Giants... Stay tuned.