Before I jump into the Rockies/Phillies, let me first start by making my playoff predictions, as my work schedule may prevent me from posting each series breakdown before they get started:
ALDS- Twins vs. Yankees- Yankees in 4
ALDS- Red Sox vs. Angels- Red Sox in 5
NLDS- Rockies vs. Phillies- Phillies in 4
NLDS- Cardinals vs. Dodgers- Cardinals in 4
NLCS- Cardinals vs. Phillies- Cardinals in 6
ALCS- Red Sox vs. Yankees- Yankees in 7
World Series- Cardinals vs. Yankees- Cardinals in 6
National League Divisional Series
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Overview: Neither team goes into this series hot, but keep in mind that the Phillies wrapped up the NL East early, and gave their starters significant rest during the final week of the season. Colorado, on the other hand, played competitive baseball down to the wire, having had the chance to win the NL West in a 3-game series against the Dodgers on the final weekend of the regular season.
The Phillies have home field advantage in the first round, and given that Jimenez and Cook have struggled there, Philadelphia should be able to at least start off more like 2008 than 2007. Whichever team can put up runs early stands a good chance of winning the series, the Phils in particular. Manager Charlie Manuel has not officially named a closer on account of everyone struggling at the back end of the 'pen, and there has even been talk about J.A. Happ being in the mix for save opportunities.
Happ has been solid, but given the uncertainty of the situation, the worst thing for the Phillies would be a high scoring series of games that requires their bullpen arms to log valuable innings. The Rockies best shot is to score early, keep games close and get past the Phillie starters.
COLORADO ROCKIES: NL Wildcard, 92-70
The Rockies are making their second playoff appearance in the last three years. In 2007, Colorado went on a tear in late September, carrying into October to the tune of 20 wins in 21 games. The Rockies swept through the Phillies in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks in the NLCS before being swept in the World Series by the Boston Red Sox.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook will be the Game 1 and 2 starters respectively for the Rockies this time around. Jimenez is 0-1 in 2 with an 8.10 ERA in 2 lifetime regular season starts against the Phillies, both games being played at Citizens Bank Park. Jimenez did beat the Phillies- in Colorado- in the clinching Game 3 back in 2007, allowing just a solo home run to Shane Victorino over 6 1/3. Cook has never beaten the Phillies, though his 4.91 ERA against them is slightly better, which isn't saying much.
The Rockies starting lineup will be almost the same as it was in 2007, the biggest difference being that Matt Holliday is no longer with the club. Jeff Francis has been out all year following shoulder surgery, however Jorge de la Rosa has stepped up to fill that void nicely, winning 16 games this season in Francis' absence to help the Rockies surge from 20-33 to the NL Wildcard.
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On a relevant but relatively inconsequential note, Kaz Matsui is no longer on the team, but Clint Barmes has provided surprising power, belting 23 home runs and 76 RBI this season. Garrett Atkins has regressed significantly since '07, and Ian Stewart has taken over as the starting third baseman. Stewart was one of four Rockies with 20+ home runs, along with Barmes, Troy Tulowitzki (right) and Brad Hawpe. Interestingly enough, Colorado did not have a single player drive in 100 runs this season, as Tulowitzki led the team with 92.PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: NL East Champions, 93-69
Cliff Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, has performed well for the reigning World Champions since being acquired from Cleveland in July, and will get the ball in Game 1. Lee struggled in his final two starts of the regular season, allowing 10 runs over 11.2 innings. Through his last 10 starts, Lee walked just 7 batters, posting a 3.96 ERA with a 5-4 record.
Cole Hamels, the Phillies' Game 2 starter, had a down year following a solid 2008 campaign. Hamels finished sub-.500 (10-11) for the first time in his career, and his .277 BAA and 4.32 ERA were by far his worst.
After a phenomenal 2008 season, the Phillies bullpen is in shambles this season, headlined by Brad Lidge's woes. Lidge, who was a perfect 43 for 43 in save opportunities (41 regular season, 2 playoffs) in '08, was 0-8 with 11 blown saves and an ERA of 7.21, career worsts for any full season by 5 blown saves and 1.93 full earned runs. Of all 8 playoff teams this season, only the Dodgers have blown more saves (26) than Philadelphia (22).
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Despite the question marks about pitching, when it comes to hitting, without question, the Phillies bats are lethal, though it will be interesting to see whether the rest will benefit or hurt the Phillies bats heading into the NLDS. The World Champs hit the most home runs (224) in the National League, tied with the Rangers and behind only the Yankees (244) for the Major League lead. Led by Ryan Howard's (left) 45 home runs, Philadelphia had four players with 30+ homers this season: Jayson Werth (36), Raul Ibanez (34) and Chase Utley (31).Prediction: Given the pitching matchups, I believe the Phillies will take care of business, especially at Citizens Bank Park. The Rockies may take one in Game 3 at home, though the Pedro Martinez investment may have yet to pay its biggest dividends should Manuel hand him the ball in Colorado.
Phillies in 4.
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