MLB Playoff Picture 2010- National League Championship Series

by Mike Trovato

San Francisco Giants (92-7) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

def. ATL 3-1 in NLDS def. CIN 3-0 in NLDS

San Francisco Giants
Offensively, the Giants weren't something to write home about against the Braves in the NLDS. Despite 3 RBI apiece from mid-season acquisitions Cody Ross and Pat Burrell, only Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey appeared totally locked in at the plate, going 6-for-16 (.375), the only Giant to hit above .300 for the series. As a small consolation, San Francisco did have the highest NL slugging percentage in round one. a less-than-stellar .295. But then again, no National League team has hit a lick in this year's playoffs, and in a series dominated by pitching, the Giants 11 runs in four games was still enough to knock off Bobby Cox's Atlanta Braves.

Yet, despite the best collective pitching performance by any team in the postseason, the Giants young guns have been overshadowed amidst all the talk about no hitters and whatnot. So here's some recognition: The San Francisco Giants starting pitching is the best in the 2010 playoffs thus far; their miniscule 0.93 ERA and 11.17 strikeouts per inning ratio rank first among all playoff teams through one round of competition.

Still, no one seems to be talking very much about them, at least not in terms of them being a serious contender. Tim Lincecum's 14 strikeouts in his complete game two-hit shutout was about as good a performance as you will see, no-no's aside. At least that got some chatter; Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez truly got a raw deal. Cain threw 6.2 scoreless innings in Game 3 on the heels of Sanchez' gem. Sanchez fanned 11 in 7.1 innings in Game 2, and he too allowed just two hits, though he did allow one whole run to score.

Say what you want about "H20," but here's one better- Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez abbreviated is LCS, granted, Madison Bumgarner doesn't fit into any acronyms... Joking aside, yes, give credit where it is due to H20, as it is an incredible 1-2-3 tandem. However, one through four, no team has it better right now than San Francisco. Consider that with an average age of the four starters being a peach fuzzy 24.5 years, the Giants have a legitimate, stone cold quartet of starting pitching capable of unbelievable things in the future, and the future could very well be right now.


Philadelphia Phillies
Three is a significant number when it comes to cliches about luck like, "third time's a charm" or three-leaf clovers. For the Philadelphia Phillies, good things seem to come in threes. Presently, the Phils are relying their three top-notch starting pitchers to get them to their third consecutive World Series. In their case, however, luck may not even be necessary.

Roy Halladay has gotten himself acquainted with life in the playoffs quite nicely, although as good as he is, I think he walks one two many batters... Honestly though, what more can you say about a postseason no hitter? Now, I don't consider myself an expert on things of this nature, but come the 7th inning, there was no question about it, it was going to happen. It wasn't one of those "hush hush," let's not jinx this kind of deals. It was unjinxable. Halladay didn't just silence the Reds' bats, he killed more bats than PETA would allow in the literal sense. It was masterful, the single-handed most mechanically methodical manhandlings of a lineup I have ever seen. When all was said and done, Hallday's no hitter essentially marked the only one-game series in playoff history.

What Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels did from that point on was merely a formality. Hamels was brilliant, though his sweep-clinching complete game shutout paled in comparison to the aforementioned Halladay. Oswalt in the middle wasn't great, but he didn't really need to be. The series, for all intents and purposes, ended in Game 1.

Analysis
This may be one of the most intriguing series there could be to pick for, and here's why. Offensively, the difference between the Giants and the Phillies is significant; the Phillies are vastly superior to San Francisco at the plate. However, the progression of pitching matchups is so phenomenal that it's mind-boggling: Lincecum vs. Halladay; Sanchez vs. Oswalt; Hamels vs. Cain. When it comes down to it, this has the potential to be one of the lowest scoring Championship Series of all-time.

With such tight matchups through Game 3, two things come to the forefront becoming exponentially more critical, the Game 4 starters and the bullpens. The Giants clearest edge lies in Game 4, as they are expected to throw Madison Bumgarner against Joe Blanton. While that would likely change if one team is up 3-0, I don't anticipate that being the case.

As far as relief pitching goes, in limited work the Philly bullpen was technically better, but the sample size for the two 'pens is quite small. Collectively, the Phillies (4 IP) and Giants (9 IP) bullpens amassed just 13 innings, with Charlie Manuel's relievers nibbling at the scraps of 4 innings thrown to them in Game 2. The Giants bullpen has been elite, particularly during the final month of the season, but the caveat here is not to compare the two bullpens to each other, but to the respective lineups they will face. The Philadelphia relievers won't have to face the likes of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth on the limited occasions they will be needed. In that regard, the Phillies have the edge.

Prediction
If there's one team equipped to match up against such a juggernaut offense in a best of seven series, I'd have to say it's the Giants. Lincecum certainly has the tools to at the very least not split two head-to-head decisions with "Mr. Doctober." With the luxury of Madison Bumgarner in Game 4, the Giants won't need anyone a third time around, and can very well roll with their top 3 for as long as they will take them. Although that could be 9 strong, logic still dictates that inevitably the bullpens will be called upon, and when that time comes, the Phillies offense stacks up better against the Giants than the Giants bats against the Phillies.

It seems too easy to go ahead and pick another Yankees-Phillies World Series showdown, seeing how both teams are the favorites. It seems that all the Phillies need to do is score first, and they can turn on the cruise control from that point on. I know it won't be that simple, and the Giants will put up a fight. But as much as I'd like to pick the upset here, my gut won't allow it, and I can't justify calling the upset just for the sake of calling it. When it's too close to call, you go with the better team. In my heart of hearts, I know that when it comes down to it, the Phillies are the better team.

Phillies defeat Giants, 4 games to 3

World Series Preview:Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees

by Mike Trovato

2009 World Series

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees

http://dealbreaker.com/2009/09/03/new_yankee_stadium.jpg
The stage is set for the 2009 World Series. After four days of waiting after clinching their second consecutive National League pennant, the Philadelphia Phillies finally have a World Series opponent, the $208 million New York Yankees. The Series begins Wednesday night at the brand new Yankee Stadium.

That $208 million number is not an exaggeration, in fact it's an understatement. In typical Steinbrenner fashion, the Yankees 2009 payroll totaled an astronomical $208,097,414. That's more than the Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins, San Diego Padres and Oakland A's combined, more than the combined salaries of the Twins and Angels, the two teams the Bronx Bombers beat en route to their 40th World Series appearance.

Although a Yankees-Dodgers World Series would have been ratings friendly- the underlying Joe Torre/Manny Ramirez storyline, not to mention the storied history between the two franchises- the Philly-New York tilt has its own intrigue.

Historically, there are many differences between these two clubs. On the surface, the mascotless, overpaid Yankees with their clean-shaven babyfaces, their nameless jersey backs are the embodiment of class and tradition, or, depending on your perspective, pomp and arrogance. The Phillies are a cockier bunch, calling out division rivals in the preseason and making flat out predictions on television, but backing it up on the field, all while their mascot disrespects stereotypes of opponents between innings. Each team has their legendary voices. Derek Jeter is introduced by a recording of Bob Sheppard, the only Yankee who actively honors the voice of the Yankees. The Phillies hang a suit worn by the late Harry Kalas in their dugout during every game, and have an HK decal on the left-center field wall at Citizens Bank Park.

Beneath the surface, the way they go about their business sets them apart, and historically that shows as well. The New York Yankees are the winningest franchise in the history Major League Baseball, both in terms of championships and winning percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have the worst winning percentage of any franchise, discounting two younger clubs- the Tampa Bay Rays (1998) and Texas Rangers (1961). Yet, in all that separates the Phils from the Yanks, the similarities between them- their fans, their fields, and their play on those fields- cannot be denied.

True fans from both New York and Philadelphia are outspoken die-hards whose passion is unmatched by fans from any other baseball town. No matter how small the confines of Citizens Bank Park or New Yankee Stadium are, the fans came without fail; only the Dodgers put more local bodies in the hometown seats in 2009. The teams they came to see did not disappoint either, both winning their respective divisions, both leading their respective leagues in home runs, extra base hits, and slugging. Perhaps it's only fitting then that the defending champion Phillies are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back World Series since who else? The New York Yankees.

The similarities don't end there. In fact, there is an eerie similarity between the individual performances this season. Here's how the Phillies and Yankees match up stastistically:

PHI 1B Ryan Howard- .279 BA, 45 HR, 144 RBI, .931 OPS
NYY 1B Mark Teixeira- .292 BA, 39 HR, 122 RBI, .948 OPS

PHI- 2B Chase Utley- .282 BA, 31 HR, 93 RBI, .508 SLG
NYY- 2B Robinson Cano-.320 BA, 25 HR, 85 RBI, .509 SLG

PHI- SS Jimmy Rollins- 100 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB
NYY- SS Derek Jeter- 107 R, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB

PHI- RF Jayson Werth- 36 HR, 99 RBI, 20 SB
NYY- 3B Alex Rodriguez- 30 HR, 100 RBI, 14 SB

PHI- LF Raul Ibanez- .272 BA, 34 HR, 93 RBI
NYY- DH Hideki Matsui- .274 BA, 28 HR, 90 RBI

PHI- SP Cliff Lee- 7-4, 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
NYY- SP C.C. Sabathia- 19-8, 3.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9

PHI- SP Joe Blanton- 12-8, 4.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 30 HR allowed
NYY- SP A.J. Burnett- 13-9, 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25 HR allowed

Phillies- 119 Stolen Bases, 81% Stealing, .987 Fielding Pct.
Yankees- 111 Stolen Bases, 80% Stealing, .985 Fielding Pct.

The Phillies led the Majors with 116 home runs on the road. The Yankees were second, with 108.
The Yankees hit 55.7% (136) of their 244 home runs at home.

Phillies Bullpen- 3.91 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Yankees Bullpen- 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-10-22/marino-rivera-ryan-franklin-named-sporting-news-2009-relievers-year
The knock on the Phillies throughout the regular season and into the postseason has been their "weak" bullpen. However, in looking at the numbers it appears that the Philadelphia bullpen, though not what it was last year, is not as bad as people think. Many will point to the Phillies' blown saves, Mariano Rivera (right), likely the best closer ever to play the game, converted a remarkable 44 of 46 save opportunities, while Brad Lidge was the polar opposite of his perfect 2008 stats, blowing 10 saves with a 7.21 ERA. On the season, the Yankees blew just 15 saves to Philadelphia's 22, but New York's relievers led the majors allowing a whopping 72 home runs to the Phillies' 46.

Head-to-head this season, the Phillies took 2 out of 3 games from the Yankees in New York, which is impressive given the Bombers outstanding 57-24 home record. More impressive was th "troubled" Phils' bullpen, which without Brad Lidge's numbers was perfect, allowing 0 runs and just 5 base runners in 7 innings. Lidge was the lone disaster, giving up 4 earned runs in 1.1 innings of work, 3 of which came in a blown save that gave the Yankees their only win of the series.

Many analysts give the Yankees starting pitching the edge for the Fall Classic, but if the 3-game regular season series is any indicator, they may want to re-crunch those numbers. The Phillies faced New York's top 3 arms- Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte- during the regular season, tagging them for a total of 12 runs in 21 innings. Philly put 26 men on base against the $37 million worth of Bombers starters, including 10 in 6 innings against A.J. Burnett. The Phillies 3 starters- Hamels, Happ and Myers- walked a grand total of 0 Yankees, yielding 20 hits in 20 innings for a collective WHIP of 1.00.
http://lasemanadeportiva.com/semana/uploads/noticias/images/item/pedro-martinez-phillies.jpg
Granted, when the Phillies came to Yankee Stadium back in May, things were very different. The Yankees were in third place, a game and a half beind the first place Toronto Blue Jays, while the Phillies held just a 1.5 game lead over the second place New York Mets. The Yankees ended the regular season on an absolute tear, winning over 70 percent of their games (52-22) after the All-Star Break, and didn't lose more than 9 games in any month after June. The Phillies were not quite as hot, but made several huge acquisitions over the summer, trading for the reigning American League Cy Young Award Winner Cliff Lee and signing Pedro Martinez (left) at the bargain bin price of $1 million.

Both Lee and Martinez have been brilliant in Philadelphia; Lee contributed three complete games with a ridiculous 74 to 10 strikeout to walk ratio, posting a 7-4 record with his new club. Martinez, a 3-time Cy Young Award Winner, went 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 9 starts for the Phils, were the only team willing to take a chance on him. That chance has paid massive dividends, adding not just depth, but quality depth to the Phillies pitching staff, along with a terrific presence in the clubhouse. After being unsigned for half the year, Martinez now finds himself back at the top of a World Series rotation, and will start Game 2 on Thursday for Philadelphia.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/poll/2009/oct/28/yankees-phillies-world-series-baseball
Both teams have their aces. The Yankees have Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter (right). The Phillies have their own solid home-grown nucleus. Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, two Yankee catalysts during the regular season, have struggled in the postseason. The same goes for the Phillies Raul Ibanez and Jimmy Rollins. Center fielders Melky Cabrera (.314, 4 RBI) and Shane Victorino (.361, 3 HR, 7 RBI) have been spectacular. Ryan Howard (.355, 2 HR, 14 RBI) has been on a tear throughout the playoffs. Alex Rodriguez (.438 5 HR, 12 RBI) has been even hotter, breaking his career-long October slump. In all of the fanfare surrounding those stars, perhaps the most overlooked player on either side has been Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz has batted .346 with 7 runs batter in, adding 7 walks for an absurd on-base percentage of .500. Only A-Rod has reached base at a higher rate (.548).

So, when the question "Who will win this year's World Series?" arises, the response is about as hard to determine as it is for a Mets fan to determine which to root for without jumping off of the Brooklyn Bridge. Here's how I see it playing out:

Game 1: Cliff Lee vs. C.C. Sabathia- A faceoff between the last two AL Cy Young Award Winners is a fitting way to kick off the 2009 World Series. The Phillies haven't played in a week, and while I think the rest will does well for Cliff Lee's arm, the Phillies bats may have a bit of waking up to do. C.C. gets the better of his former Indians teammate.
Yankees (1-0 NYY)

Game 2: Pedro Martinez vs. A.J. Burnett- Martinez returns to the "Who's your daddy?" chants at Yankee Stadium, and relishes in it. Since losing his father, Pedro has been brilliant, and is again brilliant in Game 2. Burnett struggles and with Molina in the lineup, Posada or Matsui get the short end of the stick.
Phillies (1-1)

Game 3: Andy Pettitte vs. Cole Hamels- Hamels, he 2008 World Series MVP, has had a down year. The trip back to the Fall Classic may rejuvenate him, but Pettitte has had a solid postseason and pitches better in 6+ innings here. However, anything less than 7 innings means Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, spelling a come from behind Phillies rally, a pivotal turn in the series.
Phillies (2-1 PHI)

Game 4: TBA, Sabathia vs. Lee- Down 2-1, Girardi takes no chances and turns to C.C., while Manuel retaliates with Lee. This time around the Phillies bats are alive and well, and Lee outshines the Yankees ace in Philadelphia.
Phillies (3-1)

Game 5: TBA, Burnett vs. Happ- As much as I'm inclined to think the Phillies would like to stick to their order and follow Lee with Martinez, I believe Charlie Manuel will throw lefty J.A. Happ at home, preserving Martinez for a more pressure-filled road start, if necessary. I do like Happ, but I can't see the Yankees going down yet, not without more of a fight.
Yankees (3-2 PHI)

Game 6: TBA, Martinez vs. Pettitte- To go against Pettitte at Yankee Stadium seems crazy. To think Pedro Martinez will win 2 games on the road may be just as crazy. Call me crazy.
Phillies (4-2)

Phillies in 6
World Series MVP: Pedro Martinez

MLB Playoffs: NLDS- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

by Mike Trovato

Before I jump into the Rockies/Phillies, let me first start by making my playoff predictions, as my work schedule may prevent me from posting each series breakdown before they get started:

ALDS- Twins vs. Yankees- Yankees in 4
ALDS- Red Sox vs. Angels- Red Sox in 5
NLDS- Rockies vs. Phillies- Phillies in 4
NLDS- Cardinals vs. Dodgers- Cardinals in 4

NLCS- Cardinals vs. Phillies- Cardinals in 6
ALCS- Red Sox vs. Yankees- Yankees in 7

World Series- Cardinals vs. Yankees- Cardinals in 6


National League Divisional Series
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies







Overview: Neither team goes into this series hot, but keep in mind that the Phillies wrapped up the NL East early, and gave their starters significant rest during the final week of the season. Colorado, on the other hand, played competitive baseball down to the wire, having had the chance to win the NL West in a 3-game series against the Dodgers on the final weekend of the regular season.

The Phillies have home field advantage in the first round, and given that Jimenez and Cook have struggled there, Philadelphia should be able to at least start off more like 2008 than 2007. Whichever team can put up runs early stands a good chance of winning the series, the Phils in particular. Manager Charlie Manuel has not officially named a closer on account of everyone struggling at the back end of the 'pen, and there has even been talk about J.A. Happ being in the mix for save opportunities.

Happ has been solid, but given the uncertainty of the situation, the worst thing for the Phillies would be a high scoring series of games that requires their bullpen arms to log valuable innings. The Rockies best shot is to score early, keep games close and get past the Phillie starters.

COLORADO ROCKIES: NL Wildcard, 92-70

The Rockies are making their second playoff appearance in the last three years. In 2007, Colorado went on a tear in late September, carrying into October to the tune of 20 wins in 21 games. The Rockies swept through the Phillies in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks in the NLCS before being swept in the World Series by the Boston Red Sox.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook will be the Game 1 and 2 starters respectively for the Rockies this time around. Jimenez is 0-1 in 2 with an 8.10 ERA in 2 lifetime regular season starts against the Phillies, both games being played at Citizens Bank Park. Jimenez did beat the Phillies- in Colorado- in the clinching Game 3 back in 2007, allowing just a solo home run to Shane Victorino over 6 1/3. Cook has never beaten the Phillies, though his 4.91 ERA against them is slightly better, which isn't saying much.

The Rockies starting lineup will be almost the same as it was in 2007, the biggest difference being that Matt Holliday is no longer with the club. Jeff Francis has been out all year following shoulder surgery, however Jorge de la Rosa has stepped up to fill that void nicely, winning 16 games this season in Francis' absence to help the Rockies surge from 20-33 to the NL Wildcard.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/2009/fantasy/02/25/bargains/troy-tulowitzki.jpg
On a relevant but relatively inconsequential note, Kaz Matsui is no longer on the team, but Clint Barmes has provided surprising power, belting 23 home runs and 76 RBI this season. Garrett Atkins has regressed significantly since '07, and Ian Stewart has taken over as the starting third baseman. Stewart was one of four Rockies with 20+ home runs, along with Barmes, Troy Tulowitzki (right) and Brad Hawpe. Interestingly enough, Colorado did not have a single player drive in 100 runs this season, as Tulowitzki led the team with 92.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: NL East Champions, 93-69

Cliff Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, has performed well for the reigning World Champions since being acquired from Cleveland in July, and will get the ball in Game 1. Lee struggled in his final two starts of the regular season, allowing 10 runs over 11.2 innings. Through his last 10 starts, Lee walked just 7 batters, posting a 3.96 ERA with a 5-4 record.

Cole Hamels, the Phillies' Game 2 starter, had a down year following a solid 2008 campaign. Hamels finished sub-.500 (10-11) for the first time in his career, and his .277 BAA and 4.32 ERA were by far his worst.

After a phenomenal 2008 season, the Phillies bullpen is in shambles this season, headlined by Brad Lidge's woes. Lidge, who was a perfect 43 for 43 in save opportunities (41 regular season, 2 playoffs) in '08, was 0-8 with 11 blown saves and an ERA of 7.21, career worsts for any full season by 5 blown saves and 1.93 full earned runs. Of all 8 playoff teams this season, only the Dodgers have blown more saves (26) than Philadelphia (22).
http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/valleyfever/ryanhoward.jpg
Despite the question marks about pitching, when it comes to hitting, without question, the Phillies bats are lethal, though it will be interesting to see whether the rest will benefit or hurt the Phillies bats heading into the NLDS. The World Champs hit the most home runs (224) in the National League, tied with the Rangers and behind only the Yankees (244) for the Major League lead. Led by Ryan Howard's (left) 45 home runs, Philadelphia had four players with 30+ homers this season: Jayson Werth (36), Raul Ibanez (34) and Chase Utley (31).

Prediction: Given the pitching matchups, I believe the Phillies will take care of business, especially at Citizens Bank Park. The Rockies may take one in Game 3 at home, though the Pedro Martinez investment may have yet to pay its biggest dividends should Manuel hand him the ball in Colorado.
Phillies in 4.