MLB Playoff Picture 2010- World Series

by Mike Trovato


After six months of play, just two teams remain in the quest for greatness. The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants were favored by no one coming into the playoffs, but both needed just six games to knock off the 2009 pennant winners from their respective leagues.

Tonight, the Rangers and Giants will play Game One of the 2010 World Series, and within the next ten days, only one will be left standing as Champions of Major League Baseball.

Texas Rangers

Texas handled the reigning World Champion New York Yankees on all fronts, out-pitching and outhitting the most productive lineup in baseball during the regular season. Slugging center fielder and MVP candidate Josh Hamilton hit .350 with a 1.000 slugging percentage, belting 4 homers and 7 RBI against New York to take the ALCS MVP honors. The Rangers clubbed 14 doubles against Yankee pitching, en route to a collective .304 average for the ALCS. A stellar performance by Colby Lewis the Game 6 clinched Texas' first World Series berth in franchise history. Lewis shut the Yankees down, whiffing 7 and allowing just 7 base runners through 8 innings of one-run ball. More importantly, the Rangers advanced without needing to throw Cliff Lee in a Game 7, meaning Ron Washington will throw his ace in Game 1 of the Fall Classic.

San Francisco Giants

In the NLCS, San Francisco's offense held its own against a Philadelphia Phillies rotation that was expected to silence the Giants' bats. Instead, it was the Phillies bats that were held in check by Giants pitching, managing just 3 home runs and a mere .214 team average against the young arms of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner. Though the Giants didn't hit all that well either, they received a boost from one of their mid-season acquisitions, outfielder Cody Ross. Ross accounted for 3 of the Giants' 4 home runs in the series, but two of them powered San Francisco past Phils ace Roy Halladay in Game 1. The 4-3 victory became the trademark for Bochy's squad, as three of their four victories came in one-run fashion, sealed up by flame-throwing closer Brian Wilson.

Analysis

Obviously, the way teams match up are a huge factor in how interesting a series can be. Some series are a matchup of two dominant offensive teams, other times a pitcher's duel seems eminent. But the stark contrasts in the way these two teams match up is what makes the 2010 World Series even more intriguing.

The Giants have not faced an offense as potent as that of the Texas Rangers all season long, playoffs or otherwise. Texas produced 787 runs and hit .276 as a team during the season, and is averaging nearly 5.4 runs per game this postseason, including 38 runs against the Yankees. On the other hand, the Rangers have not faced a pitching staff as dominant as the Giants pitching staff. San Francisco owned a 3.36 team ERA, the lowest in baseball this season, and only the Atlanta Braves had a lower ERA than San Francisco's 2.37 throughout the postseason.

Offensively, the Giants have remained consistent with their regular season output, and actually tallied a lower team average than they did during the season. For that reason, San Francisco may have less to fall back on, as their pitching is by far their main strength. Yet, that was the case in the NLCS, against a better pitching staff than Texas, yet they still managed a win against Roy Halladay.

What may prove to be a deciding factor is the Rangers pitching. Texas has overachieved against what is supposed to be "elite" competition during the playoffs, with ERAs and opponent batting averages significantly lower than what they were during the course of the regular season. The Rangers bullpen was strong as well, as their relievers held a solid 2.25 ERA against the Yankees. That said, Texas may be able to rely on their pitching to get them through, should their hitting falter. Another interesting foot note is that Texas will have to field Vladimir Guerrero while playing by National League rules at AT&T Park. Interestingly enough, the pitching matchups may offset the defensive drop-off, as the Rangers will throw Lee and C.J. Wilson, two lefties, in Games 1 and 2.

Prediction

Texas by far has the better hitting and is much better on the base paths than the Giants are. Although, so were the Giants' last opponents, and things turned out alright for them so far. The starters between Lee and Lincecum's projected starts can go either way, though I do like Cain, but it can't be ignored that the Giants have not faced a well-rested Cliff Lee. Despite his regular season numbers, Lee is a bona fide force on the mound in playoff baseball, with a career 7-0 postseason record and 1.26 ERA, including two World Series victories in 2009. It would be very difficult to see the Giants having much success should they have to face Lee three times, in the event of a Game 7, though I don't think it will go that far.

Rangers defeat Giants, 4 games to 2

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- American League Championship Series

by Mike Trovato

American League Championship Series

New York Yankees (5-67) vs. Texas Rangers (90-72)

def. MIN 3-0 in ALDS def. TB 3-2 in ALDS

Texas Rangers
For a team known better for its offense during the regular season, the Texas Rangers pitching has been a pleasant surprise during the 2010 postseason thus far. The mid-season acquisition of Cliff Lee was clearly made with October (and November) in mind. As much as he struggled during the second half of the regular season, come October, Lee delivers. Leading a talented staff of young arms, the southpaw continued his postseason dominance in the ALDS, mowing through the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. Lee compiled an incredible 21 strikeouts to no walks (that's right, no walks), to the tune of a 1.14 ERA. Manager Ron Washington will turn to Lee in Game 3, again on the road, as he won both starts in Tampa Bay.

As for the offense, the Rangers clobbered 8 home runs in the first round, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler's 3 apiece, and with little help from their MVP candidate Josh Hamilton. Hamilton clearly showed signs of rust against Tampa Bay, having missed 24 straight games with a rib injury in September. The Rangers were the beneficiary of 5 Rays fielding errors in round one, taking advantage of the miscues with aggressive and alert base running. The Yankees, however, are much better defensively, having made no errors in their sweep of Minnesota. Therefore, Texas will need more production from the bats of Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero and Michael Young if they intend to compete; the talented trio went a combined 10-for-57 (.175 BA) against the Rays in the ALDS.

New York Yankees
The reigning World Champions continued their ownership of the Twins, completing yet another playoff sweep in extending their playoff streak against Minnesota to 9 games. Last year's stars (Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, A-Rod and Swisher) did their job in the ALDS, but it was new Yankees Curtis Granderson and Lance Berkman who stepped up big. In just 11 at-bats, the "Grandy Man" knocked 5 hits and drove in 3 runs, while Berkman went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI, the second of which gave New York the go-ahead run in Game 2.

The Yankees bats did as much to produce runs as their pitching did to prevent them, as the Bombers outscored the Twins 17-7 in the series. Ace C.C. Sabathia actually had the worst outing of the three Yankee starters, surrendering 4 runs in Game 1. Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes tossed 7 innings apiece, Hughes doing so while shutting out the already suffocating Twins offense in the clinching Game 3. The bullpen was just as spectacular, as Kerry Wood allowed the lone run given up by Yankees relief. As usual, Mariano Rivera closed the door for the final two wins.


Analysis
The common perception seems to be that Texas is at a disadvantage before even stepping on the field, as Cliff Lee won't pitch until Game 3. However, the Rangers playoff rotation posted a 1.17 ERA, and although those numbers are somewhat Lee-heavy, neither C.J. Wilson nor Colby Lewis allowed a run in their respective LDS starts. While matching up against Sabathia is no easy task for C.J. Wilson, C.C. wasn't exactly sharp pitching on 7 days rest in Minnesota, and now he will go on 8 days rest to kick off the ALCS. Needless to say, Wilson stands a fighting chance, and if he delivers, the Rangers could very well find themselves up 2-1 after Lee's start on Monday, and heading into a matchup with the erratic A.J. Burnett in Game 4.

Bengie Molina will need to squeeze everything he can out of those young arms with his pitch calling behind the plate. Conversely, the Yankees must strive to reach the Rangers bullpen. Should New York successfully drive the Rangers young starters out of Games 1 and 2 early, that could spell trouble for Texas. The Rangers bullpen performance against Tampa Bay was a stark contrast to that of its starting pitching. In 13.1 innings of work, Texas "relief" was anything but, allowing 21 base runners (16 hits, 5 walks), of which 8 crossed home plate, for a bloated 5.27 ERA.

Texas must get on base at a much higher rate, as the Yankees team batting average (.314) was higher than the Rangers team on-base percentage (.286) in round one. Given New York's flawless defense, getting on base by their own production is a must for Texas. The Rangers offense will be their best defense, and the longer they can hold off from using their bullpen, the better.

Prediction
The Rangers are certainly capable of putting up a fight, and with A.J. Burnett going in Game 4, Game 1 could prove pivotal, because the last thing the Yankees want is for this series to go 7, where they would likely draw Cliff Lee. Still, if there's one thing the Yankees do well, it's running up the pitch counts, which easily could be the difference maker in the outcome in this series. Wilson, Lewis and Tommy Hunter all surpassed their previous innings pitched totals this season, and Wilson (+137.0 IP) and Lewis (+79.0 IP) shattered their previous single-season highs. That said, Ron Washington may very well be forced to rely on a bullpen that blew up against a scuffling Rays lineup that in no way matches the potency of the lineup Joe Girardi will field.

Yankees defeat Rangers, 4 games to 2

MLB Playoffs: NLDS- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

by Mike Trovato

Before I jump into the Rockies/Phillies, let me first start by making my playoff predictions, as my work schedule may prevent me from posting each series breakdown before they get started:

ALDS- Twins vs. Yankees- Yankees in 4
ALDS- Red Sox vs. Angels- Red Sox in 5
NLDS- Rockies vs. Phillies- Phillies in 4
NLDS- Cardinals vs. Dodgers- Cardinals in 4

NLCS- Cardinals vs. Phillies- Cardinals in 6
ALCS- Red Sox vs. Yankees- Yankees in 7

World Series- Cardinals vs. Yankees- Cardinals in 6


National League Divisional Series
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies







Overview: Neither team goes into this series hot, but keep in mind that the Phillies wrapped up the NL East early, and gave their starters significant rest during the final week of the season. Colorado, on the other hand, played competitive baseball down to the wire, having had the chance to win the NL West in a 3-game series against the Dodgers on the final weekend of the regular season.

The Phillies have home field advantage in the first round, and given that Jimenez and Cook have struggled there, Philadelphia should be able to at least start off more like 2008 than 2007. Whichever team can put up runs early stands a good chance of winning the series, the Phils in particular. Manager Charlie Manuel has not officially named a closer on account of everyone struggling at the back end of the 'pen, and there has even been talk about J.A. Happ being in the mix for save opportunities.

Happ has been solid, but given the uncertainty of the situation, the worst thing for the Phillies would be a high scoring series of games that requires their bullpen arms to log valuable innings. The Rockies best shot is to score early, keep games close and get past the Phillie starters.

COLORADO ROCKIES: NL Wildcard, 92-70

The Rockies are making their second playoff appearance in the last three years. In 2007, Colorado went on a tear in late September, carrying into October to the tune of 20 wins in 21 games. The Rockies swept through the Phillies in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks in the NLCS before being swept in the World Series by the Boston Red Sox.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook will be the Game 1 and 2 starters respectively for the Rockies this time around. Jimenez is 0-1 in 2 with an 8.10 ERA in 2 lifetime regular season starts against the Phillies, both games being played at Citizens Bank Park. Jimenez did beat the Phillies- in Colorado- in the clinching Game 3 back in 2007, allowing just a solo home run to Shane Victorino over 6 1/3. Cook has never beaten the Phillies, though his 4.91 ERA against them is slightly better, which isn't saying much.

The Rockies starting lineup will be almost the same as it was in 2007, the biggest difference being that Matt Holliday is no longer with the club. Jeff Francis has been out all year following shoulder surgery, however Jorge de la Rosa has stepped up to fill that void nicely, winning 16 games this season in Francis' absence to help the Rockies surge from 20-33 to the NL Wildcard.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/2009/fantasy/02/25/bargains/troy-tulowitzki.jpg
On a relevant but relatively inconsequential note, Kaz Matsui is no longer on the team, but Clint Barmes has provided surprising power, belting 23 home runs and 76 RBI this season. Garrett Atkins has regressed significantly since '07, and Ian Stewart has taken over as the starting third baseman. Stewart was one of four Rockies with 20+ home runs, along with Barmes, Troy Tulowitzki (right) and Brad Hawpe. Interestingly enough, Colorado did not have a single player drive in 100 runs this season, as Tulowitzki led the team with 92.


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: NL East Champions, 93-69

Cliff Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, has performed well for the reigning World Champions since being acquired from Cleveland in July, and will get the ball in Game 1. Lee struggled in his final two starts of the regular season, allowing 10 runs over 11.2 innings. Through his last 10 starts, Lee walked just 7 batters, posting a 3.96 ERA with a 5-4 record.

Cole Hamels, the Phillies' Game 2 starter, had a down year following a solid 2008 campaign. Hamels finished sub-.500 (10-11) for the first time in his career, and his .277 BAA and 4.32 ERA were by far his worst.

After a phenomenal 2008 season, the Phillies bullpen is in shambles this season, headlined by Brad Lidge's woes. Lidge, who was a perfect 43 for 43 in save opportunities (41 regular season, 2 playoffs) in '08, was 0-8 with 11 blown saves and an ERA of 7.21, career worsts for any full season by 5 blown saves and 1.93 full earned runs. Of all 8 playoff teams this season, only the Dodgers have blown more saves (26) than Philadelphia (22).
http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/valleyfever/ryanhoward.jpg
Despite the question marks about pitching, when it comes to hitting, without question, the Phillies bats are lethal, though it will be interesting to see whether the rest will benefit or hurt the Phillies bats heading into the NLDS. The World Champs hit the most home runs (224) in the National League, tied with the Rangers and behind only the Yankees (244) for the Major League lead. Led by Ryan Howard's (left) 45 home runs, Philadelphia had four players with 30+ homers this season: Jayson Werth (36), Raul Ibanez (34) and Chase Utley (31).

Prediction: Given the pitching matchups, I believe the Phillies will take care of business, especially at Citizens Bank Park. The Rockies may take one in Game 3 at home, though the Pedro Martinez investment may have yet to pay its biggest dividends should Manuel hand him the ball in Colorado.
Phillies in 4.