NFL Preview: Week 8 Picks

by Mike Trovato


Miami Dolphins (2-4) vs. New York Jets (4-3)
The Dolphins are coming off of a brutal 46-34 loss at the hands of the undefeated New Orleans Saints in a game Miami once led 24-3. From that point on, the Saints went ballistic, scoring a touchdown with 0:02 left in the half, then unleashing hell after the break. New Orleans put up 36 points in the second half, including 22 in a fourth quarter in which Miami went scoreless. The Wildcat was still productive overall; the 'Fins scored four rushing touchdowns as Ricky Williams broke loose for 3 touchdowns and 80 yards on just 9 carries. Chad Henne came back down to earth after his crisp performance against the Jets two weeks ago, going 18 for 36 (50%) with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. Miami allowed 414 yards of total offense to the Saints, putting an abrupt halt to their two game winning streak.
The Jets' week 7 was the opposite of Miami's as New York put a stop to their three week nightmarish losing streak. The Jets posted a W on the road, forcing 3 turnovers in their 38-0 rout against the lowly Oakland Raiders. It was only a matter of time before JaMarcus Russell got benched; Bruce Gradkowski took over Oakland's sputtering offense with 5:45 remaining in the first half, without much better results. The Jets ran wild for the second straight week, falling two yards short of matching their 318 yard romp against Buffalo. Rookie Shonn Greene filled the void created by the devastating loss of Leon Washington, who is done for the season with a compound fracture of his lower right leg. Greene exploded for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, one-upping Thomas Jones' 121 yard, 1 TD day. Mark Sanchez had a modest afternoon, but a much better showing than his previous three contests. His 9 for 15, 143 yard, 1 TD performance generated less noise than his impromptu fourth quarter hot dog snack, though one could argue that both were needed.
The Dolphins are 0-2 on the road, and the Jets will look to make that 0-3, retribution for the Monday Night Football loss handed to them down in Miami. The Jets have the best rushing attack in the NFL, and I expect them to persevere with that approach. Rex Ryan will need to be more creative in stopping the Wildcat, which burned the Jets to the tune of 151 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground the last time around. I can't foresee Henne having the same success as he did three weeks ago, nor can I foresee Rex Ryan pocketing his timeouts on any late game Dolphins drive with the assumption that Miami won't score. A costly learning experience in the national spotlight, the Jets should make up for it in front of their home crowd. Expect similar numbers from Sanchez, but take the under on hot dogs eaten on the sideline, no matter how low the number is.
Jets 28, Dolphins 20


Denver Broncos (6-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
When the Denver Broncos started the season 3-0, it seemed they were pulling off wins with the help of some smoke and mirrors. Then they beat the New England Patriots. The same magic Josh McDaniels worked on Matt Cassel, the Belichick disciple is at it again, turning Kyle Orton into one of the league's top 10 passers. Orton's 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio is best in the league, and his 100.1 passer rating ranks him 7th, positioning him snugly between Brett Favre (102.2) and Tom Brady (99.9). Running back Knowshon Moreno is emerging from his slow start, and leads all rookie backs with 381 yards on the ground.
Joe Flacco's rookie season was spent handing the ball off to the three-headed rushing attack of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and LeRon McClain. This season has been a different story. Baltimore can still run the ball, top 10 in the NFL with 124.8 yards per game. Flacco, however, after throwing for 2,971 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, has 11 touchdown passes through the first 6 games of 2009. The second year QB out of Delaware is on pace to pass for over 4,400 yards. In spite of their success on offense, the Ravens aging defense is sorely missing playmakers Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, who defected to the Jets following Rex Ryan. Once a formidable force, the Ravens are allowing 21.7 points per game, are middle of the road (16th) in sacks with 14, and are in the bottom third of the league with 31 passes defensed. Denver's D, the surprise of the season, has looked more like the typical Baltimore defense, tops in points allowed (66) and second in sacks (21).
Broncos 24, Ravens 16


Houston Texans (4-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-4)
Houston is riding a two game winning streak after alternating losses and wins through the first five weeks of the season. Buffalo has a two game winning streak of their own, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has given them a boost since taking over for the concussed Trent Edwards against the Jets. The Texans have scored 21 or more points in every game but one, their 24-7 loss to the Jets the first week of the season. Buffalo's pass defense is 10th in the league, but they are last against the run. Steve Slaton has been heating up a bit, though much of his recent production has come through the passing game. This is just the matchup he needs to finally break out of his sophomore slump. Houston's offense should be able to cover the points their mediocre defense will allow.
Texans 28, Bills 20

Cleveland Browns (1-6) vs. Chicago Bears (3-3)
Don't ask me why, but I feel this game will end up being closer than it really should be. The Browns are absolutely terrible, but the Bears are struggling at the moment.
Bears 14, Browns 9

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Both teams have been inconsistent, but the Cowboys have found a playmaker in Miles Austin, and have the edge in their building.
Cowboys 31, Seahawks 27

St. Louis Rams (0-7) vs. Detroit Lions (1-5)
This game will be like looking in the mirror, as this year's Rams are last year's Lions- maybe worse. St. Louis has put up 60 points all season; the Patriots put up 59 against the Titans, in snow. Detroit not only doubles their win total here, they do it big.
Lions 27, Rams 7

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-0)
Alex Smith burst back onto the scene last week, coming off the bench to throw three touchdown passes to tight end Vernon Davis. The 49ers fell a field goal short of a complete comeback against Houston, but Smith earned himself the starting job back after nearly a year-long stint on the bench. This has upset potential, but the Colts defense is much better against the pass than the Texans, and Peyton Manning is still the better QB in this matchup.
Colts 27, 49ers 22

New York Giants (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
The Eagles are off the hook for their brutal loss to the Raiders, though last week's win did come against the Redskins, which in my opinion is one of the worst 5 or 6 teams in the league. Philadelphia will be without running back Brian Westbrook, who sustained a concussion last week in Washington. As for the Giants, after a 5-0 start, Big Blue was handily beaten by the New Orleans Saints, then by the reigning NFC Champion Cardinals last week at home. There's cause for concern here, and one has to wonder if Eli Manning's plantar fasciitis is more of an issue than he's letting on. Manning will play, though how well will be a question. Ahmad Bradshaw will also play, risking worse injury to the cracked bone in his foot. It's hard to see the Giants dropping three straight, but that may be the case if the Eagles D-line can hassle Eli.
Eagles 17, Giants 16


Oakland Raiders (2-5) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-3)
Let's cut to the chase here, the Raiders plain stink. LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles should run wild against an Oakland defense that just allowed 316 rushing yards to the Jets.
Chargers 34, Raiders 9

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-6)
The Jaguars have been an enigma this season, and already have a win under their belts against their division rivals. Vince Young will make his first start since Week 1 of 2008. The Titans are playing at home, and may use a healthy dose of Chris Johnson and LenDale White to ease Young back into the flow of the game. Jeff Fisher has had two weeks to prepare his team, a veteran squad, for this contest.
Titans 20, Jaguars 17

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-2)
This game should be a classic, and a full story may be coming on this one sometime this week, but for now I'll keep it simple. Brett Favre's return to Lambeau will be a bittersweet one, as the crowd that cheered him for 16 strong years will be split between Favre loyalists and Packers die-hards, who will boo him out of the building. Bottom line here, the Vikings defense has 25 sacks, Green Bay has allowed 25 sacks.
Vikings 17, Packers 13

Carolina Panthers (2-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
Jake Delhomme is not the quarterback he used to be. Kurt Warner may not be either, but the Cardinals have rediscovered their running game with the emergence of Beanie Wells, who seems to have surpassed Tim Hightower in the pecking order. The Panthers are mistake-prone, but regardless, the Cardinals are simply more talented.
Cardinals 21, Panthers 13

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-0)
If the win against the Giants wasn't convincing enough, last week's massive comeback against the Dolphins should be all the reassurance that you need. The Falcons are good, but Saints are the real deal.
Saints 31, Falcons 17