MLB Playoff Picture 2010- World Series

by Mike Trovato


After six months of play, just two teams remain in the quest for greatness. The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants were favored by no one coming into the playoffs, but both needed just six games to knock off the 2009 pennant winners from their respective leagues.

Tonight, the Rangers and Giants will play Game One of the 2010 World Series, and within the next ten days, only one will be left standing as Champions of Major League Baseball.

Texas Rangers

Texas handled the reigning World Champion New York Yankees on all fronts, out-pitching and outhitting the most productive lineup in baseball during the regular season. Slugging center fielder and MVP candidate Josh Hamilton hit .350 with a 1.000 slugging percentage, belting 4 homers and 7 RBI against New York to take the ALCS MVP honors. The Rangers clubbed 14 doubles against Yankee pitching, en route to a collective .304 average for the ALCS. A stellar performance by Colby Lewis the Game 6 clinched Texas' first World Series berth in franchise history. Lewis shut the Yankees down, whiffing 7 and allowing just 7 base runners through 8 innings of one-run ball. More importantly, the Rangers advanced without needing to throw Cliff Lee in a Game 7, meaning Ron Washington will throw his ace in Game 1 of the Fall Classic.

San Francisco Giants

In the NLCS, San Francisco's offense held its own against a Philadelphia Phillies rotation that was expected to silence the Giants' bats. Instead, it was the Phillies bats that were held in check by Giants pitching, managing just 3 home runs and a mere .214 team average against the young arms of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner. Though the Giants didn't hit all that well either, they received a boost from one of their mid-season acquisitions, outfielder Cody Ross. Ross accounted for 3 of the Giants' 4 home runs in the series, but two of them powered San Francisco past Phils ace Roy Halladay in Game 1. The 4-3 victory became the trademark for Bochy's squad, as three of their four victories came in one-run fashion, sealed up by flame-throwing closer Brian Wilson.

Analysis

Obviously, the way teams match up are a huge factor in how interesting a series can be. Some series are a matchup of two dominant offensive teams, other times a pitcher's duel seems eminent. But the stark contrasts in the way these two teams match up is what makes the 2010 World Series even more intriguing.

The Giants have not faced an offense as potent as that of the Texas Rangers all season long, playoffs or otherwise. Texas produced 787 runs and hit .276 as a team during the season, and is averaging nearly 5.4 runs per game this postseason, including 38 runs against the Yankees. On the other hand, the Rangers have not faced a pitching staff as dominant as the Giants pitching staff. San Francisco owned a 3.36 team ERA, the lowest in baseball this season, and only the Atlanta Braves had a lower ERA than San Francisco's 2.37 throughout the postseason.

Offensively, the Giants have remained consistent with their regular season output, and actually tallied a lower team average than they did during the season. For that reason, San Francisco may have less to fall back on, as their pitching is by far their main strength. Yet, that was the case in the NLCS, against a better pitching staff than Texas, yet they still managed a win against Roy Halladay.

What may prove to be a deciding factor is the Rangers pitching. Texas has overachieved against what is supposed to be "elite" competition during the playoffs, with ERAs and opponent batting averages significantly lower than what they were during the course of the regular season. The Rangers bullpen was strong as well, as their relievers held a solid 2.25 ERA against the Yankees. That said, Texas may be able to rely on their pitching to get them through, should their hitting falter. Another interesting foot note is that Texas will have to field Vladimir Guerrero while playing by National League rules at AT&T Park. Interestingly enough, the pitching matchups may offset the defensive drop-off, as the Rangers will throw Lee and C.J. Wilson, two lefties, in Games 1 and 2.

Prediction

Texas by far has the better hitting and is much better on the base paths than the Giants are. Although, so were the Giants' last opponents, and things turned out alright for them so far. The starters between Lee and Lincecum's projected starts can go either way, though I do like Cain, but it can't be ignored that the Giants have not faced a well-rested Cliff Lee. Despite his regular season numbers, Lee is a bona fide force on the mound in playoff baseball, with a career 7-0 postseason record and 1.26 ERA, including two World Series victories in 2009. It would be very difficult to see the Giants having much success should they have to face Lee three times, in the event of a Game 7, though I don't think it will go that far.

Rangers defeat Giants, 4 games to 2

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- National League Championship Series

by Mike Trovato

San Francisco Giants (92-7) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)

def. ATL 3-1 in NLDS def. CIN 3-0 in NLDS

San Francisco Giants
Offensively, the Giants weren't something to write home about against the Braves in the NLDS. Despite 3 RBI apiece from mid-season acquisitions Cody Ross and Pat Burrell, only Rookie of the Year candidate Buster Posey appeared totally locked in at the plate, going 6-for-16 (.375), the only Giant to hit above .300 for the series. As a small consolation, San Francisco did have the highest NL slugging percentage in round one. a less-than-stellar .295. But then again, no National League team has hit a lick in this year's playoffs, and in a series dominated by pitching, the Giants 11 runs in four games was still enough to knock off Bobby Cox's Atlanta Braves.

Yet, despite the best collective pitching performance by any team in the postseason, the Giants young guns have been overshadowed amidst all the talk about no hitters and whatnot. So here's some recognition: The San Francisco Giants starting pitching is the best in the 2010 playoffs thus far; their miniscule 0.93 ERA and 11.17 strikeouts per inning ratio rank first among all playoff teams through one round of competition.

Still, no one seems to be talking very much about them, at least not in terms of them being a serious contender. Tim Lincecum's 14 strikeouts in his complete game two-hit shutout was about as good a performance as you will see, no-no's aside. At least that got some chatter; Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez truly got a raw deal. Cain threw 6.2 scoreless innings in Game 3 on the heels of Sanchez' gem. Sanchez fanned 11 in 7.1 innings in Game 2, and he too allowed just two hits, though he did allow one whole run to score.

Say what you want about "H20," but here's one better- Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez abbreviated is LCS, granted, Madison Bumgarner doesn't fit into any acronyms... Joking aside, yes, give credit where it is due to H20, as it is an incredible 1-2-3 tandem. However, one through four, no team has it better right now than San Francisco. Consider that with an average age of the four starters being a peach fuzzy 24.5 years, the Giants have a legitimate, stone cold quartet of starting pitching capable of unbelievable things in the future, and the future could very well be right now.


Philadelphia Phillies
Three is a significant number when it comes to cliches about luck like, "third time's a charm" or three-leaf clovers. For the Philadelphia Phillies, good things seem to come in threes. Presently, the Phils are relying their three top-notch starting pitchers to get them to their third consecutive World Series. In their case, however, luck may not even be necessary.

Roy Halladay has gotten himself acquainted with life in the playoffs quite nicely, although as good as he is, I think he walks one two many batters... Honestly though, what more can you say about a postseason no hitter? Now, I don't consider myself an expert on things of this nature, but come the 7th inning, there was no question about it, it was going to happen. It wasn't one of those "hush hush," let's not jinx this kind of deals. It was unjinxable. Halladay didn't just silence the Reds' bats, he killed more bats than PETA would allow in the literal sense. It was masterful, the single-handed most mechanically methodical manhandlings of a lineup I have ever seen. When all was said and done, Hallday's no hitter essentially marked the only one-game series in playoff history.

What Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels did from that point on was merely a formality. Hamels was brilliant, though his sweep-clinching complete game shutout paled in comparison to the aforementioned Halladay. Oswalt in the middle wasn't great, but he didn't really need to be. The series, for all intents and purposes, ended in Game 1.

Analysis
This may be one of the most intriguing series there could be to pick for, and here's why. Offensively, the difference between the Giants and the Phillies is significant; the Phillies are vastly superior to San Francisco at the plate. However, the progression of pitching matchups is so phenomenal that it's mind-boggling: Lincecum vs. Halladay; Sanchez vs. Oswalt; Hamels vs. Cain. When it comes down to it, this has the potential to be one of the lowest scoring Championship Series of all-time.

With such tight matchups through Game 3, two things come to the forefront becoming exponentially more critical, the Game 4 starters and the bullpens. The Giants clearest edge lies in Game 4, as they are expected to throw Madison Bumgarner against Joe Blanton. While that would likely change if one team is up 3-0, I don't anticipate that being the case.

As far as relief pitching goes, in limited work the Philly bullpen was technically better, but the sample size for the two 'pens is quite small. Collectively, the Phillies (4 IP) and Giants (9 IP) bullpens amassed just 13 innings, with Charlie Manuel's relievers nibbling at the scraps of 4 innings thrown to them in Game 2. The Giants bullpen has been elite, particularly during the final month of the season, but the caveat here is not to compare the two bullpens to each other, but to the respective lineups they will face. The Philadelphia relievers won't have to face the likes of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth on the limited occasions they will be needed. In that regard, the Phillies have the edge.

Prediction
If there's one team equipped to match up against such a juggernaut offense in a best of seven series, I'd have to say it's the Giants. Lincecum certainly has the tools to at the very least not split two head-to-head decisions with "Mr. Doctober." With the luxury of Madison Bumgarner in Game 4, the Giants won't need anyone a third time around, and can very well roll with their top 3 for as long as they will take them. Although that could be 9 strong, logic still dictates that inevitably the bullpens will be called upon, and when that time comes, the Phillies offense stacks up better against the Giants than the Giants bats against the Phillies.

It seems too easy to go ahead and pick another Yankees-Phillies World Series showdown, seeing how both teams are the favorites. It seems that all the Phillies need to do is score first, and they can turn on the cruise control from that point on. I know it won't be that simple, and the Giants will put up a fight. But as much as I'd like to pick the upset here, my gut won't allow it, and I can't justify calling the upset just for the sake of calling it. When it's too close to call, you go with the better team. In my heart of hearts, I know that when it comes down to it, the Phillies are the better team.

Phillies defeat Giants, 4 games to 3

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series (Part 2)

by Mike Trovato

Last but not least...

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

Atlanta Braves
Overview: Of all the managerial changes we will see this offseason, the most notable will be the replacement of Bobby Cox after 25 seasons in Atlanta. The changing of the guard has already been evident on the field, with Chipper Jones being the last remaining piece of the Braves dynasty of the 90's. Rookie Jason Heyward has been a sparkplug for a Braves offense that has been plagued by injuries all season long. No Braves position player appeared in more than 147 games, contributing to what at best an average offense throughout the season.

The pitching staff has carried Atlanta through the rough offensive patches, ranking seventh in fewest walks allowed (505), sixth in strikeouts (1,241), tied for sixth in opponents batting average (.246), 3rd overall in ERA (3.56), and best in the league in home runs allowed (126). The most dominant stretch of pitching began on April 30th, the day after the Braves had lost their 9th consecutive game. At that point, Atlanta was in last place with a record of 8-14, five games behind the first place Mets. That all changed on the 30th, as Braves began a run of .667 baseball, compiling a 44-22 record through the All-Star break.

Over those 66 games, Atlanta lost just eight games in May, and Braves pitching held its opponents to 3 runs or less in 41 of those contests. By the time of the mid-summer classic, they had propelled themselves into first place, four games up on New York in the standings. Although Cox's squad squandered a seven game lead in the final two months, they managed to cling to the wildcard spot on the season's final day.

Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Derrek Lee, IF Alex Gonzalez, OF Rick Ankiel

San Francisco Giants
Overview: All the talk about pitching in the National League has been about the Philadelphia Phillies, But led by the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, San Francisco's pitching staff posted a league-best 3.36 ERA, and was the only club to strike out over 1,300 batters (1,331). Over the final month of the season, the Giants pitching has been surreal. In the starting rotation, the combination of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner combined for a dazzling 141 innings, allowing just 97 hits and 30 walks while striking out 150 en route to a collective 1.66 ERA and 13-4 record. As for the bullpen, Giants relievers held opponents to a .164 batting average in September, striking out 60 while allowing just 49 batters to reach base.

With Pat Burrell leading a re-vamped Giants outfield, the revival of Aubrey Huff's career and the emergence of rookie catcher Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy's crew climbed its way out of fourth place in the NL West. The Giants bats woke up after the All-Star break, slugging the most home runs (80) in the National League, while the pitching staff got even more stingy. In the second half of the season, the Giants recorded a 3.20 team ERA and saved a Major League best 36 games behind closer Brian Wilson. Burrell was a force replacing Pablo Sandoval in the middle of the lineup, slamming 18 home runs and driving in 51, compiling a .872 OPS in the process.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: OF Pat Burrell, OF Jose Guillen, OF Cody Ross, RP Chris Ray

Prediction: Offensively, the Braves and Giants are actually pretty similar:

• Stolen Bases: Giants 55; Braves 63
• Strikeouts: Giants 1,099; Braves 1,140
  
• Slugging: Giants. .408; Braves .401
• Neither team had a player reach 90 RBI

Although both teams are similar over the course of the season in pitching stats as well, there are three factors that will separate Atlanta and San Francisco in this series- experience, rest and momentum.

When it comes to pitching, the Braves have experience on their side. Bobby Cox's Game 1 starter Derek Lowe has amassed a career 3.33 ERA in 82 2/3 postseason innings. Atlanta's Game 2 starter Tim Hudson has a 3.97 playoff ERA with 47 2/3 innings under his belt. Then there's Billy Wagner. As good as he has been for Atlanta this season, Wagner has a horrendous postseason line, an ERA over 10.00 in 11 1/3 innings pitched. Of the Giants three projected NLDS starters, none have ever thrown a pitch in baseball's second season.

In the bullpen, each team has five what I call "regular" relief pitchers-that is, relievers with over 50 appearances on the season. In this regard, San Francisco holds the clear edge. Of the Giants five regular relief men (Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Guillermo Mota), all besides Mota lowered their ERA in the second half of the season. Conversely, Takashi Saito was the only Braves reliever to log a lower ERA post-All-Star break than before it. Every other regular- Johnny Venters, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty and Wagner- saw their ERA rise as the season wound down. As far as rest is concerned, the Giants bullpen got it down the stretch, pitching just 75 1/3 innings over the final month. Braves relievers racked up 107 2/3 innings, which could leave Atlanta's 'pen out of steam.


The third factor, the one that bodes well for Bruce Bochy's young Giants staff is momentum. Momentum can disrupt a level playing field, and in this regard the Braves have none. Bobby Cox's club compiled an uninspiring 14-16 record over their last 30 games. The Giants on the other hand enjoyed an 18-8 September in which their pitching staff's ERA almost matched their opponents' average against them (1.78 ERA, 1.82 BAA). Being that this series should be a relatively low-scoring affair, that spells a major role for the bullpens, which will be the difference maker in favor of San Francisco.

Giants defeat Braves, 3 games to 1