MLB Playoff Picture 2010- World Series

by Mike Trovato


After six months of play, just two teams remain in the quest for greatness. The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants were favored by no one coming into the playoffs, but both needed just six games to knock off the 2009 pennant winners from their respective leagues.

Tonight, the Rangers and Giants will play Game One of the 2010 World Series, and within the next ten days, only one will be left standing as Champions of Major League Baseball.

Texas Rangers

Texas handled the reigning World Champion New York Yankees on all fronts, out-pitching and outhitting the most productive lineup in baseball during the regular season. Slugging center fielder and MVP candidate Josh Hamilton hit .350 with a 1.000 slugging percentage, belting 4 homers and 7 RBI against New York to take the ALCS MVP honors. The Rangers clubbed 14 doubles against Yankee pitching, en route to a collective .304 average for the ALCS. A stellar performance by Colby Lewis the Game 6 clinched Texas' first World Series berth in franchise history. Lewis shut the Yankees down, whiffing 7 and allowing just 7 base runners through 8 innings of one-run ball. More importantly, the Rangers advanced without needing to throw Cliff Lee in a Game 7, meaning Ron Washington will throw his ace in Game 1 of the Fall Classic.

San Francisco Giants

In the NLCS, San Francisco's offense held its own against a Philadelphia Phillies rotation that was expected to silence the Giants' bats. Instead, it was the Phillies bats that were held in check by Giants pitching, managing just 3 home runs and a mere .214 team average against the young arms of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner. Though the Giants didn't hit all that well either, they received a boost from one of their mid-season acquisitions, outfielder Cody Ross. Ross accounted for 3 of the Giants' 4 home runs in the series, but two of them powered San Francisco past Phils ace Roy Halladay in Game 1. The 4-3 victory became the trademark for Bochy's squad, as three of their four victories came in one-run fashion, sealed up by flame-throwing closer Brian Wilson.

Analysis

Obviously, the way teams match up are a huge factor in how interesting a series can be. Some series are a matchup of two dominant offensive teams, other times a pitcher's duel seems eminent. But the stark contrasts in the way these two teams match up is what makes the 2010 World Series even more intriguing.

The Giants have not faced an offense as potent as that of the Texas Rangers all season long, playoffs or otherwise. Texas produced 787 runs and hit .276 as a team during the season, and is averaging nearly 5.4 runs per game this postseason, including 38 runs against the Yankees. On the other hand, the Rangers have not faced a pitching staff as dominant as the Giants pitching staff. San Francisco owned a 3.36 team ERA, the lowest in baseball this season, and only the Atlanta Braves had a lower ERA than San Francisco's 2.37 throughout the postseason.

Offensively, the Giants have remained consistent with their regular season output, and actually tallied a lower team average than they did during the season. For that reason, San Francisco may have less to fall back on, as their pitching is by far their main strength. Yet, that was the case in the NLCS, against a better pitching staff than Texas, yet they still managed a win against Roy Halladay.

What may prove to be a deciding factor is the Rangers pitching. Texas has overachieved against what is supposed to be "elite" competition during the playoffs, with ERAs and opponent batting averages significantly lower than what they were during the course of the regular season. The Rangers bullpen was strong as well, as their relievers held a solid 2.25 ERA against the Yankees. That said, Texas may be able to rely on their pitching to get them through, should their hitting falter. Another interesting foot note is that Texas will have to field Vladimir Guerrero while playing by National League rules at AT&T Park. Interestingly enough, the pitching matchups may offset the defensive drop-off, as the Rangers will throw Lee and C.J. Wilson, two lefties, in Games 1 and 2.

Prediction

Texas by far has the better hitting and is much better on the base paths than the Giants are. Although, so were the Giants' last opponents, and things turned out alright for them so far. The starters between Lee and Lincecum's projected starts can go either way, though I do like Cain, but it can't be ignored that the Giants have not faced a well-rested Cliff Lee. Despite his regular season numbers, Lee is a bona fide force on the mound in playoff baseball, with a career 7-0 postseason record and 1.26 ERA, including two World Series victories in 2009. It would be very difficult to see the Giants having much success should they have to face Lee three times, in the event of a Game 7, though I don't think it will go that far.

Rangers defeat Giants, 4 games to 2

MLB Playoff Picture 2010- Division Series (Part 2)

by Mike Trovato

Last but not least...

Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

Atlanta Braves
Overview: Of all the managerial changes we will see this offseason, the most notable will be the replacement of Bobby Cox after 25 seasons in Atlanta. The changing of the guard has already been evident on the field, with Chipper Jones being the last remaining piece of the Braves dynasty of the 90's. Rookie Jason Heyward has been a sparkplug for a Braves offense that has been plagued by injuries all season long. No Braves position player appeared in more than 147 games, contributing to what at best an average offense throughout the season.

The pitching staff has carried Atlanta through the rough offensive patches, ranking seventh in fewest walks allowed (505), sixth in strikeouts (1,241), tied for sixth in opponents batting average (.246), 3rd overall in ERA (3.56), and best in the league in home runs allowed (126). The most dominant stretch of pitching began on April 30th, the day after the Braves had lost their 9th consecutive game. At that point, Atlanta was in last place with a record of 8-14, five games behind the first place Mets. That all changed on the 30th, as Braves began a run of .667 baseball, compiling a 44-22 record through the All-Star break.

Over those 66 games, Atlanta lost just eight games in May, and Braves pitching held its opponents to 3 runs or less in 41 of those contests. By the time of the mid-summer classic, they had propelled themselves into first place, four games up on New York in the standings. Although Cox's squad squandered a seven game lead in the final two months, they managed to cling to the wildcard spot on the season's final day.

Mid-Season Acquisitions: 1B Derrek Lee, IF Alex Gonzalez, OF Rick Ankiel

San Francisco Giants
Overview: All the talk about pitching in the National League has been about the Philadelphia Phillies, But led by the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, San Francisco's pitching staff posted a league-best 3.36 ERA, and was the only club to strike out over 1,300 batters (1,331). Over the final month of the season, the Giants pitching has been surreal. In the starting rotation, the combination of Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner combined for a dazzling 141 innings, allowing just 97 hits and 30 walks while striking out 150 en route to a collective 1.66 ERA and 13-4 record. As for the bullpen, Giants relievers held opponents to a .164 batting average in September, striking out 60 while allowing just 49 batters to reach base.

With Pat Burrell leading a re-vamped Giants outfield, the revival of Aubrey Huff's career and the emergence of rookie catcher Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy's crew climbed its way out of fourth place in the NL West. The Giants bats woke up after the All-Star break, slugging the most home runs (80) in the National League, while the pitching staff got even more stingy. In the second half of the season, the Giants recorded a 3.20 team ERA and saved a Major League best 36 games behind closer Brian Wilson. Burrell was a force replacing Pablo Sandoval in the middle of the lineup, slamming 18 home runs and driving in 51, compiling a .872 OPS in the process.

Key Mid-Season Acquisitions: OF Pat Burrell, OF Jose Guillen, OF Cody Ross, RP Chris Ray

Prediction: Offensively, the Braves and Giants are actually pretty similar:

• Stolen Bases: Giants 55; Braves 63
• Strikeouts: Giants 1,099; Braves 1,140
  
• Slugging: Giants. .408; Braves .401
• Neither team had a player reach 90 RBI

Although both teams are similar over the course of the season in pitching stats as well, there are three factors that will separate Atlanta and San Francisco in this series- experience, rest and momentum.

When it comes to pitching, the Braves have experience on their side. Bobby Cox's Game 1 starter Derek Lowe has amassed a career 3.33 ERA in 82 2/3 postseason innings. Atlanta's Game 2 starter Tim Hudson has a 3.97 playoff ERA with 47 2/3 innings under his belt. Then there's Billy Wagner. As good as he has been for Atlanta this season, Wagner has a horrendous postseason line, an ERA over 10.00 in 11 1/3 innings pitched. Of the Giants three projected NLDS starters, none have ever thrown a pitch in baseball's second season.

In the bullpen, each team has five what I call "regular" relief pitchers-that is, relievers with over 50 appearances on the season. In this regard, San Francisco holds the clear edge. Of the Giants five regular relief men (Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and Guillermo Mota), all besides Mota lowered their ERA in the second half of the season. Conversely, Takashi Saito was the only Braves reliever to log a lower ERA post-All-Star break than before it. Every other regular- Johnny Venters, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty and Wagner- saw their ERA rise as the season wound down. As far as rest is concerned, the Giants bullpen got it down the stretch, pitching just 75 1/3 innings over the final month. Braves relievers racked up 107 2/3 innings, which could leave Atlanta's 'pen out of steam.


The third factor, the one that bodes well for Bruce Bochy's young Giants staff is momentum. Momentum can disrupt a level playing field, and in this regard the Braves have none. Bobby Cox's club compiled an uninspiring 14-16 record over their last 30 games. The Giants on the other hand enjoyed an 18-8 September in which their pitching staff's ERA almost matched their opponents' average against them (1.78 ERA, 1.82 BAA). Being that this series should be a relatively low-scoring affair, that spells a major role for the bullpens, which will be the difference maker in favor of San Francisco.

Giants defeat Braves, 3 games to 1

Wright's clutch bat leads Mets to 2-0 start on west coast

by Mike Trovato

I don't know what has gotten into David Wright lately, but whatever it is, I hope it doesn't leave him any time soon.

The way I see it, it can be one of two things. Either David Wright plays his best baseball in weather above 60 degrees, or he is beginning to mature into the leader the New York Mets envisioned him to be. While it never hurts to be playing baseball in beautiful, warm weather, I'm going to go on record in saying that I believe this is the beginning of the next phase of David's promising young career.

Wright has never been a fast starter; statistically, April is by far his worst month in every category related to batting. It is also easy to see the drastic improvement in his play at the plate since May 1st. David has raised his batting average by 61 points from a modest .280 to a boisterous .341, batting a ridiculous .434 (23-for523 in the 14 games he has played thus far this month. He has reached base in half of his plate appearances (.500 May OBP), and his .717 slugging percentage has him up an astonishing 129 points (.390 to .519).

Yet, as important as the numbers are, there is something more to be said for what David Wright is in the midst of accomplishing. Wright has faced a lot of scrutiny in light of the Mets' late-season failures over the past two years. Thrust into the role of "the face of the franchise" player, the three time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger could not seem to escape the critics who deemed him to be a soft player who lacked a killer instinct and competitive edge, despite his solid overall numbers at the end of an 162-game schedule. However, the significance of the past two games cannot be underestimated.

It is never easy for a team to embark on a 10-game road trip to the opposite coast. In fact, as Gary Cohen pointed out during Thursday night's game on SNY- if I did hear this correctly- the New York Mets had not won the first game of a 10-game west coast road trip since 1988. After dropping two of three to the Braves, the Mets' momentum seemed to be slightly down, making them vulnerable to another rough start to a cross-country trip. Instead, the Mets opened their 4-game series with San Francisco with a 7-4 victory on Thursday, followed by an 8-6 win on Friday.

What makes these two wins so important is the way they were accomplished. In the series opener, the Mets took a 4-2 lead into the 8th inning on a solid pitching performance by John Maine, but found trouble when the Giants managed 2 runs off of Bobby Parnell in the bottom of the 8th, tying the game at 4 apiece. In a display that defied Met critics, the Amazin's did not falter, rallying for three runs in the top of the 9th inning off of Giants closer Brian Wilson.

It was indicative of everything the Mets hadn't done during the first month of the season, and showed undeniable heart, toughness, and fight. The rally started with a one out double by Carlos Beltran, who stole third base for the second consecutive game. Following a walk to Gary Sheffield, David Wright stood in the batters box and delivered a blow that knocked the Giants back, singling to right, scoring Beltran.

What happened next was unexpected, and in its essence, perfect. The double steal by Sheffield and Wright that followed the go-ahead RBI single was unexpected was not just a double steal. It was a statement, a cutthroat maneuver by a team that has found its edge. Rather than ease up, satisfied with a one run lead, the Mets held their foot to the throats of the Giants, threatening to score again. With now two men in scoring position, Ramon Castro delivered the knockout punch two batters later with a single that scored both runners.

Although the rally technically began with Beltran's double, what turned it into a rally was the clutch hit by David Wright. Those who insist on knocking Wright may have seen this as a one-time event, rather than an indicator of something more, but on the next night, David was at it again.Facing Cy Young Award winning phenom Tim Lincecum, Livan Hernandez and the Mets fell behind 5-1 by the second inning of Friday's game. The Giants' ace was rolling through the fifth inning, and despite hitting a rough patch in the 6th, found himself ahead 6-3 in the top of the 7th. Lincecum yielded a leadoff single to Luis Castillo, who stole second before Carlos Beltran reached base on a walk, lifting the 24 year-old from the game. A walk to Gary Sheffield loaded the bases for David Wright, who for the second straight night, provided the spark to ignite another Mets rally.

(click to watch Wright's 3-run double)
With the count 0-1, David scorched a double to left, a hit so hard that it reached the outfield wall, skipping past the speedy Fred Lewis. Castillo, Beltran and Sheffield all scored, tying the game at 6-6. The Mets pulled ahead with more clutch hitting in the 9th inning, again with Wright and Sheffield on the base paths, again with Brian Wilson on the mound. Wilson, attempting to throw Sheff out at third on a grounder by Ryan Church, threw wide of Pablo Sandoval, allowing Sheffield to score and Wright to advance to third. The very next batter Omir Santos hit a sac fly to right, scoring the run from third to give New York an 8-6 lead. Closer Francisco Rodriguez shut the door in the bottom of the 9th to earn his 11th save in 11 chances as a Met.

The two wins on the road are impressive, even more so off coming of the lost series to the Braves. Within the victories themselves are several other huge positive signs. The Mets have won both games without their dynamic shortstop Jose Reyes, who has been bothered by pain in his calf. They've won without Carlos Delgado, who is headed to the DL with an impingement in his hip.

As for what the Mets have had, their starting pitching has been good enough to keep them in games, going hand-in-hand with their new found spell of clutch hitting. And at the forefront stands David Wright. Over the two-game span, Wright is 6-for-8 with 6 RBI and 5 stolen bases, four of which came in a career-high performance on Thursday night, as the Mets also set a franchise record with 7 steals on the game.

David has done it all, and the best sign is that he has done it in the clutch, late in the game. Four of his 6 RBI and 2 of his stolen bases have come in the Mets' two late-inning comebacks. Say what you want, critics, but Wright has stepped up when the Mets need it most, without two of their regular stars to start a tough road trip, and to me that says one thing: David Wright is ready to be the leader of this team, not just in theory, but for real on the field.

Let's go Mets.